12 questions about this year’s elections in Virginia

Virginians on Tuesday will answer at least five questions: Who should be our next U.S. senator? The next member of the House of Representatives for that district? Should we add up to three amendments to the state constitution?

Some Virginians will answer a lot more. Arlington voters have two local races and five different bond questions to decide. Chesapeake voters have 15 candidates running for five city council seats and 13 candidates seeking five school board seats. Chesapeake voters may have more choices before them than any others in the state.

When the votes are counted Tuesday night, we’ll have a much clearer sense of what Virginians — and, indeed, Americans across the country — are thinking and what direction they think we should be headed in. Some may not like what they hear, but that’s the nature of elections. Somebody wins, and somebody loses. Get used to it and move on. We’ll do all this over again for these offices in a few years.

There are lots of other questions that this year’s elections will answer, even though they’re not phrased that way on the ballot. Then there are some questions for which it may be harder to tease answers out of the election returns. Here are some of the questions I’m wondering about as we go into election 2026:

1. How big will turnout be? And who will be turning out?

Elections are really pretty simple. They’re a grand-scale physics experiment of Newton’s First Law of Motion: Bodies at rest stay at rest, etc., etc. In the case of elections, the goal on each side is to motivate voters to get up off their couches and go vote. The side that does the best job of this wins. That’s really what it’s all about; everything else is just ceremony and drama.

The only thing we know for certain is that through Sunday we have 1,631,722 Virginians who have voted early. That’s up 13.9% from a year ago this time. Does that mean overall turnout will be 13.9% higher than last year? We don’t know yet. If it is, then we’re looking at a turnout well north of last year’s 54.13% and perhaps perhaps closer to the 59.15% turnout in the 2018 midterms of Donald Trump’s first presidential term. That was a record number and likely reflects the more polarized society we have today. About a decade ago, turnout in the low 40s for a congressional midterm was typical.

The reason why we don’t know yet whether this higher early voting presages higher turnout overall is beause it’s possible that one or both sides have simply shifted some of their day-of vote to early voting, in which case turnout won’t be that high.

Whatever the actual figure is, you don’t need more than elementary school math to see that even with a relatively high turnout, there are still a lot of people who aren’t voting. That takes us back to Newtonian physics: Which side is doing the better job? The composition of the electorate changes each election — sometimes redder, sometimes bluer. That’s where close elections are won, in those marginal shifts back and forth. The State Navigate forecasting site (run by Virginia Tech grad Chaz Nuttycombe) estimates that this year’s early voting poll in Virginia is 0.7% more Democratic than last year’s. That could be good news for Democrats; last year was a Democratic year in Virginia so anything more than that makes the early electorate even more Democratic. However, there could also be good news for Republicans here: The early voting electorate had been even more Democratic early on, but Republicans were able to shave that advantage down in the final week. Does that suggest Republicans are primed for a big day-of turnout or have they already expended their energy? We don’t know yet.

In the military, they say amateurs argue strategy, professionals talk logistics. In politics, the professionals talk “get out the vote” — the behind-the-scenes work of identifying likely voters and then getting them to the polls.

I find politics great fun, and the most fun I’ve had this fall was watching an ad in the recent Israeli election on behalf of Gadi Eisenkot, whose party was challenging that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the ad, Eisenkot’s side didn’t do a good enough job at get-out-the-vote, because his party still finished second. It’s a great ad, though, that makes a point both sides in our elections should heed: You gotta get your people out.

2. What impact, if any, will the three proposed constitutional amendments have on the congressional races?

I don’t like to offer predictions, but it doesn’t seem controversial to say that these will likely get a “yes” vote in Democratic areas and a “no” vote in Republican ones. Will that have any impact on other races, such as the congressional races? If so, it would likely come in this form — people coming out to vote for or against a particular amendment who otherwise wouldn’t have voted and therefore becoming an “unexpected” voter in the congressional race. Which candidates benefit from that and which ones might suffer? For instance, I could see the “no” side helping generate turnout for Republican John McGuire in the rural parts of the 5th District where early voting has lagged. Of course, I could also see the “yes” side helping turn out voters for Democrat Tom Perriello in Charlottesville and Albemarle County. There may not be a good way to measure this, but we can measure something else related to the amendments:

3. How much crossover voting will we see with the amendments?

More specifically, will the “yes” side get more voters or fewer votes than the congressional candidate on the ballot in that district? A higher vote would suggest some Republicans voted “yes.” A lower vote would suggest that some Democrats either voted “no” or didn’t vote at all. Along those same lines, will Republican candidates run higher or lower than the “no” vote on those amendments?

4. What impact will the amendments have on the two off-track betting referendums?

People come out to vote for lots of different reasons. For people in Amherst County and the town of Pulaski who will be coming out specifically to vote for or against the referendums there on whether to allow a Rosie’s Gaming Emporium, the order of the ballot won’t make a difference. For others, though, the pari-mutuel betting referendum may be an afterthought — and for those voters, the ballot order could be key. The three proposed constitutional amendments will be listed ahead of the local referendum. If we assume that Amherst and Pulaski will vote “no” on the amendments — a solid bet given their voting history — will those voters, after voting “no” three times in a row, be inclined to cast a fourth “no” vote against off-track betting? We’ll be looking to see how the outcomes on off-track betting differ from the constitutional amendments.

5. How will the voting patterns on this year’s marriage amendment differ from the one 20 years ago?

It’s not often that we are asked to repeal part of the constitution. This year, we are. Amendment 2 would, in part, repeal a constitutional amendment added just 20 years ago, which means some unknown number of Virginia voters will have a chance to either repeal or reaffirm something they personally voted on in 2006.

That year Virginians voted by a margin of 57.1% to 42.9% to ban same-sex marriages. The U.S. Supreme Court later nullified that amendment in its 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling that legalized same-sex marriages nationwide. However, the voided language remains in the state constitution, lying dormant. Amendment 2 before Virginians this year would repeal that language and insert new language to establish a state right to a same-sex marriage. Advocates say this is necessary in case the U.S. Supreme Court ever changes its mind, that rights that rest on a court ruling are always subject to change. Opponents say either the change is unnecessary or validates a practice they find morally objectionable. You can read the arguments pro and con in this side-by-side opinion piece we published earlier this fall. You can read about all three amendments in our Voter Guide.

Whatever the outcome this year, we have a recent set of election returns to measure this year’s results against. In 2006, just 13 of the state’s 134 counties and cities voted yes. A lot has changed since then; with Bedford city reverting to town status, we now have 133 counties and cities, but the bigger change has been in social acceptance of same-sex marriage. Case in point: Back then, Roanoke voted in favor of the ban with 54.4% of the vote. Today, Roanoke has a mayor who is in a same-sex marriage; he authored the pro side of the opinion piece we published.

6. How many Republican localities will vote for a tax increase?

Virginia this year authorized localities to hold referendums on whether to enact a 1% local sales tax with money going to schools for construction or maintenance — 47 counties and cities have scheduled such votes. Almost all of those are in rural and therefore Republican-voting communities. In some places, notably Wythe and Prince Edward counties, the Democratic and Republican parties have come together to make a joint endorsement for a “yes” vote.

7. How much ticket-splitting, if any, will we see in Lynchburg?

I often grapple to find the right word to describe Lynchburg’s politics. Let’s start with “tumultuous” and work our way up from there. Republicans hold a 6-1 advantage on council, but it’s more like 3-3-1 because Republicans are split into two factions. Over the course of the campaign, those two factions seem to have more to say about their fellow Republicans than they have had about the Democratic slate, which hasn’t had to say much at all except “we’re not like them.” The Republican side is even more complicated by the fact that there are two rival Republican slates, both running as independents — a result of the state party voiding the results of the Lynchburg Republican Party’s party-run nominating process.

Democrats have the simplest vote — Democrats up and down. The only question is whether Perriello will get more votes than the Democratic council candidates or whether any of them outrun him.

Republicans have more complicated choices. How many McGuire voters will mix-and-match council candidates from the two independent Republican slates?

Eight of the nine Lynchburg council candidates responded to our issues questionnaire; you can see their responses on the Lynchburg page of our Voter Guide.

8. How will the three Lynchburg council incumbents run versus their 2022 numbers?

When Republicans swept that year’s council elections, Stephanie Reed finished first with 12,287 votes, Larry Taylor second with 11,658 and Marty Misjuns third with 10,685. The nearest candidate who finished out of the top three took 10,157 votes.

Now these three Republicans are in rival camps, with Reed and Taylor aligned with Chris Boswell on one slate and Misjuns running with Veronica Bratton on another.

Once we have results, it will be interesting to compare this year’s tallies with those from 2022: Did any of these candidates grow their support or have they lost support?

9. How Democratic is Roanoke?

And, a related question: How much will controversies over a proposed casino and school funding undermine the basic Democratic foundations of the city? Roanoke can generally be counted on to vote about 60% or so Democratic. In the absence of other factors, that would likely mean easy wins for the three Democratic candidates seeking three council seats. However, there are some other factors this year. Some I just cited. The others are four non-Democratic candidates competing for attention. One of those is independent Stephanie Moon Reynolds, who won a seat in 2020. That gives her a track record. Another is former mayor David Bowers, who hasn’t won an election since 2012 but came close to winning the mayor’s race two years ago. Both of them may have higher name identification than two newcomers on the Democratic ticket — Danny Clawson and Raekwon Moore, who join incumbent Vivian Sanchez-Jones. The other independent is Kathy Cohen, who is also well-known for her work as a faith leader and community activist. Republicans have a single candidate, Amanda Marko, and won a seat two years ago with that single-shot approach.

All that creates a more fluid and unpredictable environment than Roanoke might normally have.

The easiest scenario is for all three Democrats to win, but there are other scenarios where Moon Reynolds takes away a chunk of votes in the city’s Black precincts that would normally go to Democrats — thus endangering some of the Democrats and creating an opening either for her or other candidates.

Reminder: If you’re not sure who to vote for, take our quiz to see which Roanoke council candidate comes closest to your views. You can also see how all seven candidates responded to our issues questionnaire; see the Roanoke page on our Voter Guide.

10. What’s the impact of Republicans having a weak U.S. Senate candidate?

Bert Mizusawa won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in a landslide but has had few resources with which to carry out his campaign. Mizusawa has raised less money for a statewide campaign than some candidates have raised for a congressional campaign. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate — incumbent Mark Warner — is exceptionally well-funded. Warner’s raised $27.49 million; Mizusawa just $1.1 million.

There are two practical effects here. Both are hard to measure but easy to describe.

For Republicans, it means Mizusawa hasn’t been able to mount a strong top-of-the-ticket campaign, meaning that the congressional candidates are typically the ones who have to shoulder the load. The Republican House members in competitive races haven’t had much help from the rest of the ticket.

For Democrats, it means Warner has been free to campaign wherever he feels he can best help other Democrats. Last week, for instance, he was out on the campaign trail with both Tom Perriello in the 5th and Beth Macy in the 6th. How much will he be able to create coattails that other Democrats can hold onto?

Both Warner and Mizusawa responded to our issues questionnaire, even though most congressional candidates didn’t. See their answers on our Voter Guide.

11. Will independents make a difference in any congressional races?

Two of Virginia’s most sharply contested congressional races have candidates beyond the two major party contenders. The 2nd District has two independents, the 5th District has one. Will they make a difference? 

Statistically speaking, it means we might have winners who don’t get a majority. That hasn’t happened in Virginia since 2010, when there were five candidates in the 11th District, which held Democrat Gerald Connolly to 49.2% in a narrow win in a bad year for Democrats (those were the Barack Obama midterms). 

In practical terms, though, we don’t know. Maybe those independents pull votes that would otherwise have gone to a major party candidate — or maybe those voters wouldn’t have cast ballots at all. That’s why it’s hard to say that an independent “cost” a particular major-party candidate an election. Ralph Nader’s presidential candidacy in 2000 is often cited as “costing” Al Gore the state of Florida — and the election — but that presumes that without Nader, those Nader voters would have backed Gore. Maybe they were so far left they just weren’t enthused about Gore and didn’t care who won between him and George W. Bush. 

12. How many presidential candidates campaigned in Virginia?

Democrats want to rejigger the presidential primary schedule for 2028 to emphasize more diverse states and have adopted a plan that puts Virginia sixth, just before Super Tuesday. Whether that schedule holds is still in question, but just the prospect of it has prompted some presidential hopefuls to show up in the state — former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Georgia Sen. Ralph Warnock. How many of those actually run, we’ll see. Buttigieg seems the only sure bet. That, though, is a different election, one that’s still two years off. For now, we have one on Tuesday, so let’s get through that.

You know what the best part about elections is? It means we have election results that we can talk about for days, weeks, maybe even years. I’ll be talking about some of them in West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Friday. Which ones will I be talking about? Don’t know yet! Need to see the results! Sign up below: