Virginia’s 5th Congressional District shows distinct gap in turnout in Democratic areas versus Republican, which likely makes Tuesday critical

The first phase of the 2026 election is over: Early voting is done. We don’t know how those early voters cast their ballots, but one thing is clear: In one of Virginia’s most contested congressional districts, Democrats appear to be voting at distinctly higher rates than Republicans.

In the 5th Congressional District where Democrat Tom Perriello has mounted a well-funded challenge against Republican incumbent John McGuire, the early vote in some Democratic strongholds has approached presidential-level numbers while turnout in some Republican counties has lagged much further behind.

These numbers, in and of themselves, do not predict a Perriello upset on Tuesday. However, they do show how a Perriello victory could happen — if Democrats in that district vote at historically high rates for a midterm election while Republicans don’t. That appears to be what’s happening so far. Think of it this way: These numbers show that a blue wave has likely formed in that district; the question is whether Republicans can erect a high enough red wall on Election Day to stop it.

Of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts — some of which have competitive races, some of which don’t — none show the stark divide in the early turnout between Democratic localities and Republican localities as the 5th District does.

Here’s how I arrived at these numbers and what they show: The number of early voters in each locality is publicly available through the Virginia Department of Elections, most clearly displayed by the Virginia Public Access Project and State Navigate. I took those numbers and compared them against the 2024 early voting numbers that are also available through the Department of Elections. What this does is show what percentage of that presidential year turnout each locality has achieved.

Turnout in a midterm election is typically lower than a presidential year, so the closer a locality comes to hitting its presidential year early vote, the more noteworthy it becomes. We know that historically Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans; this method discounts that partisan factor by measuring each locality against what it’s done in the past. That means what we’re measuring here is voter enthusiasm, as demonstrated through the actual act of voting early.

This map shows how close each locality came in the 2026 early voting to matching its early voting in the 2024 presidential election. The greener a locality is, the closer it came to the presidential year early vote; the brown localities came in lower.

A locality that historically hasn’t had much early voting could get a high score if early voting this year approaches presidential level; a locality with historically high early voting might score low if the early voting this year lags behind. Using this method, we do see some places that run counter to overall partisan trends. Highland County is the least-populated county in the state — and also a solidly Republican county. Its voters this year, though, appear to be quite engaged: Early voting in Highland has hit 81% of its 2024 level. Norfolk is overwhelmingly Democratic and typically has a lot of early voting, although on a percentage basis, early voting this year is at only 65.2% of its presidential level.

Those places are exceptions, though. Generally speaking, Democratic localities have cast early ballots at a higher rate than Republican ones. Here’s an overview of the four most contested congressional districts in the state, plus an overview.

5th District: There’s a clear pattern

The challenge for Perriello is that the 5th is historically a Republican district, and the bulk of the Democratic vote is confined to only a few localities. If every locality voted at the same rate, he’d get overwhelmed by votes from Republican counties. However, the early voting trends show that localities are not voting at the same rate. In Charlottesville, the early vote hit 84.6% of its presidential tally. In Albemarle County, the figure is 82.5%. In Danville, 79.2%. Those are the only three localities that Democrats carried in 2024.

There are some Republican localities in the district where the early vote has come in close to that rate — early voting in Appomattox County finished at 79.3% of its presidential year level total, Goochland County at 77.9%. However, the worrisome part for Republicans should be the places that didn’t. Mecklenburg County hit only 66.8% of its presidential level early vote, Campbell County just 64.7%, Pittsylvania County 64.6%. Bedford County, which is split between the 5th and 9th districts, is at just 62.2% of its presidential year totals.

Maybe those places will make up for that with a strong day-of turnout on Tuesday; we don’t know that yet. We just know that compared to previous years, the early vote in the 5th District is probably more Democratic than usual. Will that be enough for Perriello? We don’t know; that depends on what happens on Tuesday.

There are some other curious figures from the 5th: Fluvanna County and Nelson County are swing areas where two years ago Democrats won the early voting; their early vote this year is at 81.4% and 80.9% of their presidential levels. Does this suggest Democrats have done a better job there of mobilizing their supporters in those counties? Again, we don’t know yet, but Republicans might want to be concerned.

Lynchburg is a community that generally (but not always) votes Republican. However, Democrats typically win the early voting there. Perriello has devoted a lot of attention to Lynchburg this year, and the early vote in the Hill City is at 81.2% of its presidential level. How well will Republicans be able to mobilize their day-of voting? The answer to that question will also play into the city council race.

The 1st, 2nd and 6th districts: The trends are less clear

The heaviest early voting in the state has come in the 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor is challenging Republican incumbent Rob Wittman. That’s in line with previous years. The good news for Democrats is that James City County has hit 83.8% of its presidential year early vote. However, rural (and therefore Republican-voting) counties in the 1st haven’t lagged like they have for McGuire in the 5th. Middlesex County hit 87.6% of its presidential year turnout; that’s the highest percentage in the state. (Middlesex has a four-way sheriff’s race, which is likely helping to boost the turnout). Only one locality in the 1st came in below 70%: King William County at 69.5%.

The 2nd District, where Democrat Elaine Luria is challenging Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, is even harder to read. Most of the vote in that district is in a single locality — Virginia Beach, which is historically very “swingy.” There are some danger signs for Republicans, though. Two small localities that trend Democratic have unusually high turnout rates: Franklin city hit 84.1% of its presidential year totals, Northampton County hit 83.6%. Accomack County usually votes Republican, but Democrats generally win the early vote, and the early vote there hit 82.2% of presidential year totals. If Luria wins, we can point to those figures as an early signal, but without knowing more about Virginia Beach, it’s hard to say more.

The 6th District, where Democrat Beth Macy is challenging Republican incumbent Ben Cline, offers less cheery figures for Democrats. The only localities that jump out for an especially high early turnout are Harrisonburg and Waynesboro, which hit 82.3% and 80.1% of presidential year early vote, respectively. Both are good news for Macy because Democrats won the early vote in that year in both places. However, outside those two cities, we don’t see the kind of stark variations that we do in the 5th. Roanoke, the largest source of Democratic votes in the district, came in at 70.07% of its presidential year early vote. However, Rockingham County, the biggest source of Republican votes, came in at 76.0% of its presidential year early votes (and Republicans typically take the early vote there). Frederick County, which rivals Rockingham for providing the most Republican votes in the district, came in at 70.4%.

Southwest Virginia runs well behind in early voting

The worst news for Republicans is out of a district they’re expected to win handily: The 9th District is the most Republican congressional district in the state. Many of the counties in the district came in with less than 60% of their early vote from two years ago.

The problem in these numbers aren’t for the congressional race between the lightly funded Democrat Joy Powers and the Republican incumbent Morgan Griffith. The problem is this means Southwest Virginia isn’t helping either the Republican Senate candidate Bert Mizusawa (an underdog to Democratic incumbent Mark Warner) or the “no” side in the three constitutional amendments.

Deep red Southwest Virginia usually has the lowest turnout rates in the state, period, regardless of voting methods. These early voting numbers show Southwest Virginia isn’t coming anywhere close to meeting even its relatively low early voting numbers of two years ago. Put another way: So far, Republican voters in Southwest aren’t doing their part to help their Senate candidate or defeat the three proposed constitutional amendments. In Wise County, the early voting this year was barely half of what it was two years ago. The one exception in Southwest Virginia is Dickenson County, where there’s a commonwealth’s attorney race driving the turnout.

One of the things we’ll be watching Tuesday is to see whether these early voting numbers foreshadow the shape of the day-of turnout — or if there’s a surge of day-of voters that wipe out all these trends. We’ll have a live feed from the Department of Elections on our site Tuesday night so you can follow along as the numbers roll in.

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