You can find our stories on Democrat Tom Perriello here and independent Cooke Harvey here.
Republican Congressman John McGuire fired up a crowd of Amherst County fourth graders at Sweet Briar College on an autumn morning just a month out from the midterm elections.
McGuire, a father of five adult children, boarded a school bus with the group. As the full bus bounced along the road up to a building on the campus that housed a rare copy of the Declaration of Independence, he led them in rounds of screaming, then silence, then questions about what they wanted to be when they grew up.
It was a continuation of the conversation he had with the group before they got on the bus. One kid wanted to be “a chicken,” another “a biologist.” “Policeman” and “truck driver” were among the other vocations offered by the students.
“When I say ‘Go,’ I want you to be really loud, and then when I go like this, I want you to be really quiet,” he told the children on the bus, holding up a closed fist as the signal for quiet, something he’d learned during his time as a Navy SEAL. The children enthusiastically obliged, to the chagrin of their teachers and the bus driver.
Inside the building, more rounds of screaming ensued, followed by silence and a brief discussion about the Declaration of Independence and McGuire’s time in the Navy SEALs. The students took photos with the congressman and left.
McGuire didn’t seem to mind that most of the constituents he’d rallied that morning aren’t qualified to cast a ballot in his favor this November. Instead, when asked about the unorthodox campaign stop crammed into a busy schedule, he expressed hope that the children would go home that afternoon and tell their parents that they’d met their congressman.
The freshman incumbent from Goochland County is facing a challenge from former Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello during an election year that could prove tough for Republicans. Economic woes driven by tariffs and the conflict in Iran have emerged as the top issue for voters, according to multiple Virginia polls.
Regardless, McGuire has maintained his support of President Donald Trump as some Republicans in tight midterm contests across the country have sought to distance themselves from the party leader in recent months. And the first-term congressman has remained one of Trump’s staunchest supporters out of the cadre of Virginia’s Congressional Republicans.
It was Trump’s endorsement of McGuire over then-Congressman Bob Good during the 2024 Republican primary that catapulted him to victory. McGuire still trumpets that endorsement in bold red type on yard signs and on other campaign materials.
The president is seeing an approval rating that has fluctuated between 32% and 37%, depending on the poll, heading into the midterm elections. Trump has been criticized for bringing the U.S. into conflict with Iran and for tariffs that he levied against trade partners. Both have increased the cost of gasoline, groceries and goods.
“President Trump is a great president. He secured our border,” McGuire said when asked if he planned to distance himself from a figure whom other members of his party have treated as a liability. “Trump is trying to fix a lot of things. We inherited a really big mess.”
Could a ‘blue wave’ reach the Blue Ridge Mountains?
McGuire’s continued allegiance to Trump could be considered a product of the political makeup of the 5th Congressional District.
The conservative congressman won election in 2024 by a 15-point margin over his Democratic challenger, Gloria Tinsley Witt. In 2025, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears won the district by a margin of 7.6 percentage points over Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger went on to win statewide with a 15-point margin. McGuire also handily beat a primary challenge in August.
The district is typically seen as a Republican stronghold; the last Democrat to win in the 5th was McGuire’s current challenger. Perriello, of Charlottesville, won in 2008 by roughly 700 votes against incumbent Virgil Goode, who had switched his political allegiance from Democrat to Republican over the course of his 12 years in office.
Perriello lost his reelection bid in 2010 to Robert Hurt by a margin of 3.8 percentage points.
Cracks in the conservative foundation of the 5th District have been suggested by some observers in recent months.
Recent analysis by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report saw a slight shift in the 5th District race, from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” In its explanation for the shift, Cook Political said that Perriello and a liberal political action committee have been “hammering McGuire on the airwaves” and that polls show a close race.
Perriello has seen a financial advantage over McGuire, with the Democrat raising $2.1 million to the Republican’s $1.7 million as of July 15, according to Federal Election Commission data.
“Anti-McGuire” independent expenditures have outpaced “pro-McGuire,” “anti-Perriello” and “pro-Perriello” expenditures combined, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.
McGuire was first elected to Virginia’s House of Delegates in 2017, the same year his party lost 15 seats in the chamber to Democrats.
“There’s, I think, at least one or two articles that said ‘McGuire is immune to the Blue Wave,’” he said, remembering that election.
This time around, however, he said he is “not sure” how he feels as he stares down a similar predicted wave that threatens to wash across the commonwealth from the coast to the Blue Ridge Mountains.
“Just got to work hard and give it to God and see what happens,” he said.
McGuire acknowledged in conversations with voters at the Campbell County registrar’s office earlier that day that he’s been told the race could be tight.
“You know, you never know what to believe with polls and the media — I just try to love everybody — but I don’t know, they say it’s a really tight race. So, respectfully, if you would, prayers No.1, and if you’ve got friends, tell them to vote,” he asked of a couple who shook his hand and offered him words of encouragement as they made their way down the sidewalk into the registrar’s office to cast their ballots.
That sidewalk was lined with yard signs supporting the Republican incumbent and other GOP candidates on the ballot. The only sign that mentioned McGuire’s challenger, Perriello, was one that outlined accusations against the Democratic candidate.
The Good factor and the Trump card
McGuire beat Bob Good in a contentious primary election in 2024. That primary, and the subsequent recount paid for by Good, split the Republican party that year. That fissure could spell trouble this year for McGuire if Good supporters decide to sit out the election.
But by early October, McGuire said he felt confident that he would be able to win over supporters of his former opponent.
“I mean, it’s been two years now, so it doesn’t even come up,” he said. “It used to come up in the beginning — I had people come up to me and say, ‘I didn’t know you, so I voted for Bob, and now that I know you, I’m glad you’re here.’”
“I don’t know what the polls are — I mean, I hear stuff, I don’t know how it’s going to go on Nov. 3,” he added. “I do always act like I’m behind, prepare for the worst, prepare for the best. A lot of people lose things in life because they’re complacent or take it for granted.”
Later that morning, McGuire, in his blue Ford 150 Raptor pick-up truck, led the caravan of four vehicles — two staffers and one Cardinal News reporter — into Lynchburg for a brief stop at the registrar’s office, where he poked his head in to the early voting location before heading to the nearby Texas Inn for a Cheesy Western burger for lunch.
There, he met and talked with supporters before moving on to his next stop of the day.
The main issue for voters across the country leading into the midterm election is the economy, according to a recent Pew Research poll. Concerns about the price of gasoline, energy, food and consumer goods rose among voters in early October, about a month out from the election. Regardless, McGuire has stood by Trump.
“We have a ship that’s huge, and it’s hard to turn that ship around,” McGuire said when asked during an earlier interview with Cardinal News about the tariffs levied by Trump against trade partners and the resulting increased costs on goods such as beef. “There’s unfair trade. The trade deficit in America was ridiculously lopsided.”
He agreed that Trump’s involvement of the U.S. in conflict with Iran has led to increased fuel prices.
“Certainly what’s going on in Iran has impacted the fuel cost, but I would argue that the fuel cost would have gone up anyway because we shut down refineries,” he said.
Later that day, Trump said the same in a post on Truth Social. According to a 2015 report by the Federal Trade Commission, a large number of U.S. oil refineries have closed since the 1980s, and no new refinery has been built since 1976. Regardless of the decrease in the number of refineries, the U.S. operating crude oil distillation capacity has increased from about 14.3 million barrels per day to 18 million barrels per day between 1985 and July 2026, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“My desire is that we can become energy dominant, and instead of spending money on fuel overseas, we sell fuel overseas and make money to bring more economic development to our country,” McGuire said.
Talking policy with constituents
After lunch, McGuire visited Superior Paving Corp. to tour the Lynchburg facility and learn more about asphalt production and distribution.
“I’ve been to hundreds of businesses, and you know what I hear every day? ‘I’ve never met a congressman, I’ve never met a congressman,’ so I want to be the guy that you know, if you have a problem you can not only reach me, but we’ve met before,” he told the company’s leadership team.
Superior Paving is a family-owned company that launched in 1976 in Gainesville. It grew to roughly 140 employees, 100 of whom are located in the 5th District. The company produces about 400,000 tons of asphalt a year that has paved roads from Danville to Farmville and Charlottesville to Roanoke.
McGuire talked with company leaders about the bipartisan surface transportation reauthorization bill, which is expected to be voted on in Congress after the midterm election. That legislation, dubbed BUILD America 250, is a five-year, 1,000-plus-page bill that touches nearly every surface transportation policy.
The congressman likes the House version of the bipartisan bill, and he hopes it gets a vote before the end of the 119th Congress, but at the moment, he can’t answer if he will vote for it or supports it, Brittany Slaughter, spokesperson for McGuire, said later.
“I support people that are doing good policies,” he said.
He named former Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former Del. Danny Marshall of Danville and Del. Eric Phillips, R-Henry County, as examples of Republicans who had put forth what he considered good policy.
One of McGuire’s policy goals is an effort to lower the cost of homes for first-time homebuyers. In January, he introduced his American Dream Act, which would remove capital gains tax from the sale of a home with a price up to $500,000 if the seller is age 65 or older and selling to a first-time home buyer.
The bill was referred to the House Ways and Means Committee in January and has not seen any movement since. More than 26,000 bills have been introduced by members of the 119th Congress, with 676 receiving roll call votes, according to Congress.gov.
Currently, homeowners can qualify to exclude up to $500,000 from their income tax if they have a capital gain from the sale of their main home, according to the IRS.
What to do about data centers?
In September, McGuire voted in favor of the bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act, along with 416 other members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Supporters of the bill have called the legislation an “important first step” to require state electric utility regulators to consider adopting rules that make data centers pay the full cost of required energy infrastructure upgrades. Critics of the legislation have said that the bill lacks enforcement capabilities. The legislation is now before the U.S. Senate.
Data centers and artificial intelligence have become increasingly prevalent issues in midterm races across the country, including the 5th District.
AI developers and data center operators have found themselves increasingly at odds with public opinion in recent months, as more Americans have expressed concerns about the environmental impacts and high energy consumption of the centers, as well as about the development of artificial intelligence in general.
“They say that whoever dominates AI will run the world, so there’s an arms race,” McGuire said when asked about efforts to regulate data centers and AI development.
“We can’t have China outperform us in AI, we just can’t,” he added. “I can see all of the positive stuff, curing cancer, solving problems, but I think we need to find a balance.”
Since 2008, technology companies have built more than 600 centers across the commonwealth. Their growth began in Northern Virginia and is now spreading into more rural areas in the commonwealth.
“If a county, city and town does not want a data center, I don’t think they should have one. I think there’s a place for data centers — I think industrial parks is probably the right place, not next to your farm,” McGuire said.
He added that data centers should not be built in areas where their operation could affect the local water table, and ratepayers should not have to pay for the energy used by the centers.
McGuire ended his day on the campaign trail at the Lynchburg Fire Department Fallen Firefighters Memorial Service in Miller Park.
The annual event honors firefighters who have died in the line of duty or due to work-related illness. There, he spoke with the family of a firefighter who died in 2024 after a battle with cancer and talked with members of the fire department about efforts to write and pass legislation to provide benefits and support for firefighters and their families.
