Warm winds extend a couple of red flags as the evening sun sinks behind some mid-level clouds on April 16 near Daleville in Botetourt County. While these red flags weren't for that purpose, a "red flag warning" has been issued for some parts of Virginia at times as stiff winds and dry conditions have combined for enhanced fire danger. All of Virginia is now considered to be in moderate to severe drought with increasing potential for wetter weather toward the end of April into early May. Photo by Kevin Myatt.
Warm winds extend a couple of red flags as the evening sun sinks behind some mid-level clouds on April 16 near Daleville in Botetourt County. While these red flags weren't for that purpose, a "red flag warning" has been issued for some parts of Virginia at times as stiff winds and dry conditions have combined for enhanced fire danger. All of Virginia is now considered to be in moderate to severe drought with increasing potential for wetter weather toward the end of April into early May. Photo by Kevin Myatt.

This spring can’t make up its mind if it really wants to be summer or winter.

Martinsville had taxing heat on April 15, reaching 91 degrees. By Tuesday morning this week, it was 27. Similar for Chatham, dropping from 90 one afternoon last week to 29 on a morning early this week, and South Boston dipping from the region’s hottest temperature so far in 2026 at 93 last Wednesday to a frosty low of 30 on Tuesday morning.

For Roanoke, Tuesday’s low of 31 was the latest spring freeze in 28 years, following less than a week after the earliest 90+ high in 13 years, 91 on April 15.

Not every spot in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area topped 90 last week, and not every spot dipped below freezing on Monday or Tuesday mornings this week. But most were at least in the 80s last week and in the 30s on one or two mornings early this week.

The late-day sun pokes over a ridgeline in southwest Roanoke County as a fallen tree adorns a hillside. Fallen trees from wind and ice over the past couple of years enhance the fire danger in existing dry conditions. Photo by Kevin Myatt
The late-day sun pokes over a ridgeline in southwest Roanoke County as a fallen tree adorns a hillside. Fallen trees from wind and ice over the past couple of years enhance the fire danger in existing dry conditions. Photo by Kevin Myatt.

For most of March and April, the large-scale atmospheric pattern has almost evenly divided summer and winter along the U.S.-Canada border. For much of the U.S., excluding the Northeast and Alaska, extremely warm temperatures have ruled. For Canada and Alaska, bleeding into the Northeast U.S., winter has held on stubbornly into much of spring.

That cold air has been close enough to give us some quick but sharp jabs of chill to break up the unseasonable warmth, causing that 80s-to-snow overnight flip in early March and a couple of other instances of summerlike warmth crashing to winterlike cold, including over the past week.

But summer preview has been in charge for longer periods of times than winter relapse. Danville, with 22, and Lynchburg, with 17, have had a record number of days with highs 80 degrees or above from Jan. 1 to April 20, crushing second-place 1945 with 17 and 12, respectively at those sites.

Now, there are strong signals that a pattern similar to what made much of our January and February wintry will be taking hold as we end April and enter May. This will feature blocking high pressure in the northern latitudes displacing the jet stream more southward, where it can sweep more moisture-bearing storm systems across the southern half of the nation than we’ve seen in a while.

The shifting weather pattern suggests a slight tilt of the odds to cooler than normal conditions in Virginia nad northward as April turns to May, with warmer than normal conditions confined to the southern and western fringes of the nation. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
The shifting weather pattern suggests a slight tilt of the odds to cooler than normal conditions in Virginia and northward as April turns to May, with warmer than normal conditions confined to the southern and western fringes of the nation. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.

While this may produce potential for some more late frosts, the overall effect will be a more springlike pattern of temperatures more toward the middle of the seasonal spectrum most of the time — and perhaps more importantly, more frequent and substantial chances of rain, starting this weekend.

The green colors signaling a tilt of probability toward wetter than normal conditions has been rarely seen across the southern and eastern U.S. as it is on the 8-14-day precipitation map. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
The green colors signaling a tilt of probability toward wetter than normal conditions has been rarely seen across the southern and eastern U.S. as it is on the 8-14-day precipitation map. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.

Most locations in our region have not even had an inch of rain total three weeks deep into April as the entire commonwealth of Virginia has fallen into moderate to severe drought. The situation is worse in states to our south, as there are patches of extreme drought in the Carolinas, and exceptional drought, the worst category, over southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Widespread moderate to severe drought isn't just limited to Virginia but extends across much of the Southeast U.S. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.
Widespread moderate to severe drought isn’t just limited to Virginia but extends across much of the Southeast U.S. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.

The more frequent periods of rain probably won’t be enough to entirely relieve the long-term drought, but has a chance to make a dent in it. The details of how much rain might occur will depend on short-term atmospheric setups within the broader pattern.

The deeper dips in the jet stream are also likely to rev up the spring severe storms season from the southern Plains across the Deep South. Our region may get some overflow from southern U.S. severe storms at times.

So far, most severe storms and tornadoes have been occurring farther north in the Upper Midwest, where summer and winter have rubbed against each other a little more often.

We’ve had two months of winter and two months of summer interspersed with short spurts of winter. Perhaps it’s about time we had some actual spring.

A cumulonimbus cloud looms in the sky near Staunton on April 1, one of the rare instances of thunderstorms that have occurred this spring in Virginia. Courtesy of Isabel Rathburn.
A cumulonimbus cloud looms in the sky near Staunton on April 1, one of the rare instances of thunderstorms that have occurred this spring in Virginia. Courtesy of Isabel Rathburn.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.  

To submit a photo, send it to weather@cardinalnews.org or tweet it to @CardinalNewsVa or @KevinMyattWx. Please identify the location and date of the photo with each submission.

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Kevin Myatt has written about Southwest and Southside Virginia weather for the past two decades, previously...