What happens if ‘yes’ wins? What happens if ‘no’ wins? Here’s a look at two alternative futures.

We’re accustomed to voting when the woods are shedding their leaves, not sprouting them, but Robert Frost’s poem about “two roads diverged in a yellow wood” still applies.

Just as Frost faced a choice between two roads heading in different directions, so do Virginians in Tuesday’s special election on redistricting. Frost peered down one route “to where it bent in undergrowth” and another that was “grassy and wanted wear.” I’ll let you decide which of those roads is the “yes” route and which one is the “no” route, but I can offer a political travelogue of where each of our roads will lead if the special election goes their way.

Here’s what happens if Virginians vote “yes”

1. Republicans will line up at the courthouse to file additional lawsuits

The Republican National Committee has already filed one suit to challenge the proposed map of new congressional lines for failing the state constitutional test of “compactness.” (See my column on that here.) If voters approve redistricting, and the map goes into force, there will surely be legal challenges. The April 21 vote will not signal the end of legal challenges to Virginia’s redistricting, but rather the start of a new round.

2. We wait for the Virginia Supreme Court to rule on the Tazewell cases

There have already been two legal challenges to redistricting, both coming through the Tazewell Circuit Court, that made their way to the Virginia Supreme Court. The justices, citing a 1912 precedent on how to handle challenges to elections, ruled that they would not decide until after the vote was held. (For details on that case, see here.) That means the court will eventually rule on those cases — and could well invalidate the vote as procedurally flawed. That would be a political earthquake, but not an unprecedented one. In 1958, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that Arlington County voters had approved something unconstitutional in a referendum. (See my previous column on that case here.) The cases aren’t exactly parallel — the Arlington process was fine, but the substance was unconstitutional; here, the allegation is that the process of putting the amendment on the ballot violated the state constitution. Regardless, the seven most important votes in this election won’t be cast until well after April 21.

3. Two Virginia Republicans will be left scrambling

If the referendum passes, we all have to assume it will be upheld until it’s not. The immediate political effect will be that Reps. Ben Cline and John McGuire will be in a political bind. Republican Rob Wittman in the 1st District will face a dramatically altered district renumbered the 8th, where he’d be pitted against Democratic incumbent Don Beyer. Republican Jen Kiggans won’t face much of a change in the 2nd District; she had a tough reelection battle ahead of her before in a swing district, and still would.

Cline and McGuire will be the two Republicans most hurt by redistricting. Cline, who lives in Botetourt County and now represents the 6th District, will find himself drawn into the 9th District, now held by fellow Republican Morgan Griffith. Cline could still run in the reconfigured 6th — a small part of it would still cut through Botetourt, and he’s represented much of the district before, but the new map is drawn to benefit Democrats.

McGuire will be even more out of luck. His Goochland County home, now in the 5th, will be in the eastern claw of the so-called “lobster district,” a redrawn 7th District that tilts even more heavily Democratic than the 6th. Cline could make a fight of it in the 6th; McGuire will have a much tougher time in the crustacean-like 7th.

4. Republicans may get some early statewide candidates for 2029

When Democrats cut Republican George Allen out of his congressional seat in the early 1990s, they wound up launching him into a statewide political career that bedeviled them for years. It’s entirely possible that one or more Republicans who find their House careers short-circuited will conclude that maybe they should run for governor or some other statewide office in 2029. All fou four Republicans that Democrats are trying to knock out have previously served in state government and one (Wittman) has previously expressed interest in a gubernatorial bid.

5. The Democratic choices in the 6th District will become clearer

A new map will confirm that 6th District Democrats would have a choice between former Rep. Tom Perriello and Roanoke author Beth Macy, both of whom have proven themselves to be strong fundraisers. Only one can win the nomination, though. There’s a third candidate in the race, Henrico County lawyer Hugh Murray, who is running out of district. And there could be a fourth in the form of Roanoke Del. Sam Rasoul, who has said he might run if there’s a new map.

6. We might see more congressional candidates emerge

Eight Democrats have already announced for the redrawn 7th District. We could get even more. Curiously, we haven’t seen such a clamor for Democrats to run in a redrawn 5th District, which is also intended to be a Democratic district. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who is now running in the current 1st District, would be in this new 5th, and the automatic frontrunner by default. Aren’t there other Democrats in this district who might see an easy route to Washington? Since these districts are drawn to benefit Democrats, the focus has been on that side, but Republicans will need to figure out how they intend to contest these new districts.

7. Florida Republicans will have more incentive to draw more Republican seats

The Florida legislature goes into special session April 28 to take up redistricting. There’s talk of drawing four new Republican seats, but also some Republican concern that this would require lowering the Republican percentage in many districts — putting some nominees at risk. According to The New York Times’ redistricting tracker, Republicans currently have a two- to three-seat advantage in the redistricting wars. If Virginia approves redistricting, Democrats could pick up four seats, to give them a national advantage of one to two seats. That’s bound to have some impact on Florida legislators.

8. Partisan divisions in Virginia will likely widen

Democrats will chortle that they’ve sent a message to President Donald Trump; Republicans will complain that Democrats stole seats from rural Virginia. Republicans are already in a sour mood about cooperating with Gov. Abigail Spanberger for signing off on redistricting; a “yes” vote is unlikely to improve that.

Here’s what happens if Virginians vote “no”

1. Democrats will be in shock and Republicans will be jubilant

Both sides will probably read too much into the outcome, because that’s the nature of politics, but the short-term impact will be that Democrats will have a lot of explaining to do about how they overreached and why voters reacted negatively. National commentators will obsess over what happened and probably get much of it wrong. My sense is that if redistricting fails, it will be because voters really don’t like gerrymandering and, in this election, the “no” side is far more energized than the “yes” side. The recent Washington Post-Schar School poll confirmed that the Virginians with the highest propensity to vote in the special election tend to be on the “no” side. 

2. Some Democrats will blame Spanberger for not doing more

A Politico article recently quoted several Roanoke Democrats, including congressional candidate Macy, wishing that Spanberger would do more to push redistricting. The timing, though, is very bad for the new governor: This campaign comes just as she must perform one of her big constitutional duties — reviewing more than 1,000 bills and deciding how to act on them. It’s hard to see how she could spend time out on the campaign trail when there’s so much work to be done in the capital. Still, parties that lose elections have to blame somebody, and some partisans will likely blame her. Republicans, who have refocused their campaign to focus on Spanberger, might credit her for helping their cause. Despite that . . .

3. Spanberger might also have a chance for a reset

The recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found that Spanberger is starting her term with the lowest approval rating, and highest disapproval rating, of any new Virginia governor since the poll started asking that question in the early ’90s. A subsequent State Navigate poll found the same numbers. That seems a surprise given her big election win, but one obvious reason for the difference is that Spanberger ran as a centrist seeking bipartisan solutions, only to find herself thrust immediately into the partisanship of redistricting. The timing was terrible for her, and, politically, she took a hit. If redistricting fails, she has a chance to start over — maybe. Republicans may not let her, although the general public may be more forgiving (or at least more forgetful).

4. A lot of Democratic congressional candidates from Northern Virginia won’t have anywhere to run

At least eight candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination for the so-called lobster district, the redrawn 7th. Two of those were candidates who were previously seeking the party’s nomination in the 6th District but would now be drawn into the 7th: Pete Barlow of Augusta County and Ken Mitchell of Rockingham County. The other six are all from Northern Virginia and have entered specifically with a newly designed district in mind: J.P. Cooney, Dan Helmer, Dorothy McAuliffe, Adele McClure, Saddam Salim and Olivia Troye. If redistricting fails, those six have nowhere to go, unless they want to challenge Democratic incumbents, which seems unlikely. Barlow and Mitchell could go back to running against Macy in the current 6th.

5. Macy and Perriello wouldn’t have to face each other in a primary, so each will advance to the general election vs. Cline and McGuire

Virginia Democrats have two rare candidates in the field — two candidates running in mostly rural, Republican districts who have proven to be astonishingly good fundraisers. I refer to Macy in the 6th and Perriello in the 5th. One of the curiosities about the proposed redistricting map is that it pairs them in the same district where only one can survive, most likely Perriello, based on initial polling. If redistricting failed, both would get a shot at a nomination, albeit in tougher districts. Life is all about trade-offs.

6. Republicans will cheer, but shouldn’t cheer for long

They still face the problem of an unpopular president, which is never good for the party in power. Congressional Democrats have already said that, under the current configuration, they designate the 1st (Wittman), 2nd (Kiggans) and 5th (McGuire) as targeted seats. The 2nd is historically a swing district, and the 1st is within Democrats’ grasp. The 5th would be a longer shot but isn’t impossible. While Democrats aim to knock out four Republicans with a new map, it’s possible that they could win three of those the old-fashioned way under the current map. The recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found that in “central/western Virginia” — an ill-defined geography that appears to take in the Republican-voting rural areas west of the urban crescent, support for Trump was pretty tepid. The poll found that in that area, 52% approved of his handling of the presidency, 47% disapproved. That’s not much reassurance to Republican candidates in that part of the state. 

7. Miyares would get a boost for governor in 2029

Jason Miyares lost his reelection bid for attorney general in the Democratic sweep last fall but hasn’t been the retiring type. He’s kept up an active commentary on the Democratic administration on social media and co-chaired one of the anti-redistricting groups. That’s put him back out on the campaign trail, trying to pump up the Republican “no” vote. I wrote about Miyares last week. If the “no” side prevails, that would elevate him if he chooses to seek the Republican nomination for governor in 2029 (which seems a pretty good bet anyway). 

8. Florida Republicans might still have an incentive to redistrict or might back down

If Virginia doesn’t redistrict, Florida Republicans might see the opportunity to put Republicans a little further ahead nationally in the redistricting wars. On the other hand, those who are disquieted by the prospect of drawing Republican margins lower in a scheme to get more districts might have an argument that the party doesn’t need to redraw lines. It’s hard enough to predict what will happen in our own state, much less a different one.