Virginia heads into a unique spring special election on a constitutional amendment with a potentially close outcome and a clear early voting pattern: Early voting is up in rural areas where the “no” vote is expected to be strongest and down in the urban crescent where the “yes” side is counting on turnout.
That does not necessarily mean that the “no” side on the proposed constitutional amendment to allow a mid-decade redistricting will win, or should even be favored. Polls have consistently shown a narrow edge for the “yes” side. However, the early voting trends do suggest the “no” side is positioned to pull off an upset if — and this is a very big if — certain conditions are met in today’s turnout at traditional polling places.
Early voting ended over the weekend. Here’s an analysis of the early voting numbers, followed by key questions:
Early voting suggests overall turnout could rival last November’s governor’s race
Early voting through Sunday ran slightly lower than in last year’s governor’s race, which suggests that overall turnout will rival what we saw last November. Two days before last year’s election, some 1,439,897 Virginians had voted early. Through Sunday, 1,358,538 Virginians have voted. There had been concern that a spring election would see relatively low turnout. That does not appear to be the case. Overall voter turnout last November was 54.9%, the second-highest turnout on record in a governor’s race since the “motor voter” law expanded the electorate before the 2001 election. The early voting trends suggest this special election is on pace to have a gubernatorial-level turnout.
That turnout could be “lumpy,” though, with higher-than-usual turnout in some places and lower-than-usual in others. The early voting certainly is. This map shows which localities have higher early voting than in last year’s fall election (green) and which ones are lower (pink). Hover over each one to see the percentage increase or decrease.
Early voting in Northern Virginia is down by double-digit percentages
Compared to last year, early voting is down by double-digit percentages across most of Northern Virginia and other key Democratic-voting communities where the “yes” side needs votes. In Alexandria, early voting is down 25.2% from last year. In Loudoun County, it’s down 16.4%. In Prince William County, it’s down 16.2%. In Fairfax County, it’s down 13.2%. This translates into thousands of votes. For instance, Fairfax County is the state’s most populous locality. Last year, 201,490 people voted early there. This year, 174,823 have. That’s a difference of 26,667 votes.
In all of Northern Virginia, there were 379,631 early votes this year, down from 447,109 last year — a drop of 67,478.
That alone may not matter. In last year’s closest statewide race, Democrat Jay Jones won the attorney general’s race by 227,097 votes. However, we need to remember that early voting, as popular as it is, still constitutes only a minority of the total votes cast. Last year, early voting accounted for 33.7% of the total votes cast. The lower early voting in Northern Virginia raises the question of whether we’ll see lower voting at the polls there today, as well, or whether voters will make up for the slowness of early voting with a big turnout today.
Early voting was down in some other key Democratic areas
Some other big Democratic-voting communities also saw lower levels of early voting. Chesterfield County is down 19.2%. Virginia Beach, often a swing city that last year swung toward Democrats, saw early voting fall this year by 21.2%. The biggest drop, on a percentage basis, is in Chesapeake, another swing locality that last year went strongly for Democrats. Early voting there is down 29.9%. As with Northern Virginia, this cautionary note is key: These localities are so big that a lower early voting turnout may not matter, but it is curious.
Some key Republicans areas also saw early voting slip
Some large Republican-voting localities didn’t fall as much as the large Democratic localities but they are down, which is not good for the “no” side. Hanover County saw early voting slip by 4.9%. Roanoke County is off 5.8%.
All these localities stand in contrast to the one part of the state where early voting is up by large percentages, if not necessarily large numbers overall — rural Virginia.
Early voting is up in most rural areas — sometimes way up.
The constitutional amendment appears to have energized voters in many Republican-voting rural areas, where part of the election message has been that they will lose influence in a proposed congressional map where five districts are anchored in Northern Virginia.
In 70 of Virginia’s 133 localities, early voting this spring ran higher than last fall. Almost all are in Republican-voting localities. The challenge for the “no” side is that these are less populous localities, so large percentage increases don’t translate into a lot of votes. The biggest percentage increase is in Lee County, where early voting is up 41.0% from last fall. The actual voter increase is from 1,585 to 2,235, an uptick of 650 early extra votes. Next door in Scott County, early voting is up 39.8%, from 2,560 to 3,578, an extra 1,018 early votes. Interestingly, neither of those localities is at direct risk with the proposed new map. Both are in the 9th District, now held by Republican Morgan Griffith; both would still be in a Republican-dominated 9th District even if “yes” passes.
Across all the localities with increased early voting, the overall increase is 22,361 more early votes than last year. As with Northern Virginia above, this trend may not sway the outcome at all. However, it raises a question: Does this level of engagement in rural Virginia point to a much larger in-person turnout today, perhaps so large that it could make up for the vote “yes” margins expected out of the urban crescent? Or has the “no” side simply cannibalized its vote by generating a higher early turnout at the expense of the traditional at-the-polls voting? We’ll find out tonight.
I’ll be posting updates on the voting today on our Election Live post; that’s also where we’ll have analysis tonight as the numbers come in. This election will give us lots to talk about for a long time; regardless of whatever there is to write in the days ahead, I’m sure there’ll be more in this Friday’s edition of West of the the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here:
