Welcome to our running updates on the special election on redistricting. This is where we’ll be posting updates during the day and then analyzing the returns after the polls close. Reminder: Polls open at 6 a.m., close at 7 p.m. If you’re looking for the maps or other information on the process, see our Voter Guide.
8:54 p.m.: Yes wins, narrowly
It’s over, folks. Except for the shouting, of which there will be much.
8:37 p.m.: Reality check
Yes holds a narrow lead. Most of Fairfax is still out. Still votes out in Henrico and Richmond, two other “yes” localities. Bedford and Mecklenburg have yet to report but there probably aren’t enough “no” votes hidden up Goose Creek Valley to change the outcome.8:34 p.m.: Yes back ahead.
Ok, that didn’t last long.
8:33 p.m.: No back ahead, barely.
8:27 p.m.: “Yes” pulls ahead as Fairfax reports
Still close, though, and Hanover and Southampton are starting to report, too.
8:23 p.m.: Most places are fully reported
The big exceptions: Most of Fairfax County is still out. That’s a big “yes” county.
About one-quarter of Virginia Beach is out. That’s a narrow “no” city city.
Most of Pittsylvania County and Rockingham County are out. Big “no” margins there.
Still nothing from Bedford, Hanover, Mecklenburg and Southampton, all “no” counties.”
There are a few other places with a some precincts out but these are the main ones.
8:18 p.m.: “No” lead shrinks to almost nothing
For the “yes” side, it’s Fairfax County to the rescue. No now up 50.71% to 49.29%, a margin of about 29,000 votes. That’s probably not enough to withstand what’s coming in from Fairfax County but we’ll see.
8:16 p.m.: Four localities have yet to report any votes
We have zero votes out of Bedford, Hanover, Mecklenburg and Southampton counties. All will be “no” localities by big margins. But can those margins make up for what “yes” expects out of Fairfax?
8:12 p.m. Your periodic reminder about how big Fairfax County is
Right now, “no” has a 47,351-vote margin statewide. But only 5 of 265 precincts in Fairfax have reported. Last year, Fairfax delivered a 213,924-vote margin for the Democrats. That’s math the “no” side doesn’t want to hear right now.
8:09 p.m.: Fairfax County starts to report
Hang on. This is going to be big.
8:07 p.m.: Here’s what’s out
No leads narrowly, but we’re still waiting on Fairfax County, which is going to deliver a lot of “yes” votes.” The good news for the “no” side: Prince William County, another big “yes” county, is complete so those are in the books.
About half of Virginia Beach is out. Plus all of Bedford County and Hanover County, both “no” counties but no where near the size of Fairfax.
8:03 p.m.: We’re now seeing more “yes” votes come in
Chesterfield County and Suffolk have flipped back to the yes column. Richmond and Henrico County are also coming in, so that’s more “yes” votes.
8:01 p.m.: Remember the 2006 U.S. Senate race
This reminds me of the 2006 U.S. Senate race where Republican George Allen led most of the night until late votes from Northern Virginia came in to put Democrat James Webb into the lead.
The big thing right now is we have zero votes out of Fairfax County and very few out of Prince William County, both big “yes” localities.
7:56 p.m.: “Yes” pulls ahead in Virginia Beach
The beach right now is 50.9% yes to 49.1% in. Not yet half the precincts reporting, but the “yes” side can ill afford to lose Virginia Beach. Last year it went 55.62% Democratic.
Overall, the no lead has slipped to about three percentage points.
7: 52 p.m.: Here’s what the “yes” side needs
“No” is holding onto to a five-percentage point lead but I wouldn’t call it secure. There are some big Democratic localities that have no votes reporting yet: Fairfax County is the biggest, but also Henrico County and Richmond. We also have only two of 103 precincts out of Prince William County. On the other hand, we have no votes from some likely “no” localities: Bedford County, Hanover County, Rockingham County, for instance. This will almost certainly get closer.
7:49 p.m.: The places switching from Democratic to “no”
I’mlooking at the numbers to find places that went Democratic last fall and now are on the no side. So far I have four and they’re all big ones: Chesapeake, Spotsylvania County, Stafford County and Virginia Beach. Could be more. Stay tuned.
Update: Also Nelson County, Staunton and Waynesboro, so that’s seven.
7:46 p.m.: A warning sign in Chesterfield County?
Last year Chesterfield voted 58.86% Democratic. Right now, with most of the vote in, “no” leads narrowly, with 50.34%. That’s not good for the “yes” side, although I keep reminding readers Fairfax County has yet to report.
7:39 p.m.: “No” takes 5 percentage point lead but . . .
Fairfax County has yet to report. Lots of yes votes there. On the other hand, almost all of Loudoun County is in. That’s a “yes” county so the good news for the “no” side is those votes are in and counted and “no’ is still ahead.
Lots of other places yet to be counted, too. We also have more than 1 million early votes to be counted.
7:32 p.m.: A cautionary observation
Before the “no” side gets too excited about being ahead, let me point out that Fairfax County, the state’s most populous locality and a sure “yes” county, has yet to report. Ditto Richmond and Henrico County.
On the other hand, what’s notable is that Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and Stafford County, which all voted Democratic last fall, are voting “no” tonight. This is going to be a quite a ride tonight. Hold on.
7:28: No just pulled ahead
Not sure where those votes are from yet. Investigating.
Update: Appears to be a bunch of “no” votes out of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach that probably account for this.
7:25 p.m.: Bad news for the ‘no’ side out of Loudoun County
One question we’ve had is how many Democrats will vote “no.” In Loudoun County, doesn’t appear to be many. The Loudoun vote is coming in fast; more than half the precincts are reporting. Last year, Democrats won 64.52% of the vote there. Tonight, “yes” is taking 61.11%. That’s not as much of a drop-off as the “no” side would like to see.
7:23 p.m.: Yes side running below 2025 Democratic numbers, but still leads
As more numbers come in, we’re getting a clearer picture. Democrats won Chesterfield County last November with 58.86% of the vote. So far tonight, “yes” is winning there with 52.02%. That’s a drop-off, but may not be enough for the “no” side.
However, where “no” is winning, it’s winning big. Republicans won Buchanan County last year with 81.91%. Right now, “no” is winning there with 86.82%.
7:14 p.m.: Returns are coming in fast
So far, yes is ahead. These numbers are all very early what what we’re seeing so far is that “yes” is running ahead of Abigail Spanberger’s percentage in last year’s governor’s race in Democratic localities while “no” is running ahead of Winsome Earle-Sears’ percentages last year. I don’t expect the former to hold as the night goes on but that’s what we have now.
The good news for the “no” side is that these early numbers are inflated by a lot of precincts from Loudoun County, which boosts the “yes” side.
7:06 p.m.: Our first numbers come from Mathews County
I’m always fascinated to see who reports first. Tonight, it’s the early vote totals from Mathews County: 70.37% no to 29.63% yes. That’s 2,154 to 907. No surprises there but always curious.
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7 p.m.: The polls have closed.
And now we wait.
5:38 p.m.: Northern Virginia vote still lags, but no clear picture yet
We’re getting a clearer picture of the rate at which Northern Virginia votes are lagging behind last year but we still don’t have a good picture from Republican-voting rural Virginia. We know turnout is heavier there, but not sure how much, and, of course, those are smaller localities.
In any case, here’s some raw info:
Alexandria: At 4 p.m., turnout today (not counting early voting) was 19.6% with total turnout (including early voting) at 42.9%. In November’s election at 4 p.m., Alexandria’s turnout was 23.9% with a total turnout of 53.4%.
Arlington County: At 4 p.m., turnout today (not counting early voting) was 20.4%. In November’s election at 4 p.m., Arlington’s total turnout was 27%.
Loudoun County: At 4 p.m., total turnout (including early voting) is 39.19%. In November’s election at 4 p.m., Loudoun’s total turnout (incoluding early voting) was 45.5%.
Not a Northern Virginia locality but still a Democratic-voting one:
Charlottesville: At 1 p.m., turnout today was 10.8%, down from 17.0% at that time last November. By 4 p.m., Charlottesville turnout today was 15.9%. Alas, Charlottesville didn’t post a 4 p.m. report last year, so we have no comparison but that 4 p.m. today is still below 1 p.m. last year.
4:36 p.m.: Northern Virginia vote picks up; rural vote strong but maybe not strong enough for the “no” side
This morning we were watching turnout in Northern Virginia lag behind 2025 totals. Now it’s picking up. The turnout is still lower than 2025, but the gap is narrowing. The presumably good for the “yes” side. Rural turnout appears strong, but may not be strong enough to make up for urban crescent numbers. For instance: As of 4 p.m., 82% of voters in Republican-voting Bedford have cast ballots, according to Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate, while 74.8% in Democratic-voting Chesterfield County have. Before we jump to conclusons, see the cautionary observations I posted at 2:59 p.m. We see trends but there’s still a lot we don’t know, such as, you know, how people are actually voting.
4:33 p.m.: Two precincts in one location
The Wilson’s Mill precinct in Highland County used to vote in a church, but the church has closed, so today Wilson’s Mill voters are casting ballots at the firehouse in Monterey. When voters arrive, they see this sign directing them to the proper location.
4;27 p.m.: Cornett and his dog call for ‘no’ votes
Many legislators are out working the polls today for their respective sides and posting photos and videos. Here’s a screenshot of a video from Del. Mitchell Cornett, R-Grayson County, who appears with his dog, Banjo. Cornett said it took him 15 minutes to record a simple video because so many people there were voting and wanted to talk. We’re still awaiting a comment from Banjo.
2:59 p.m.: Some cautionary observations
We know a little but we don’t know a lot and we certainly don’t know enough.
Here’s what we do know: Early voting was up in rural (Republican) areas and down in Democratic areas. (See those details here.) We also know that Election Day voting in Northern Virginia, a key Democratic area, is running behind last year’s governor’s race. All those are good signs for the “no” side. On the other hand, that gap between this year’s turnout and last year’s turnout is narrowing, which is probably good for the “yes” side.
Now, here’s what we don’t know: We don’t have a good picture yet of turnout in rural areas. Republicans need a really strong turnout there, but many rural localities don’t do regular turnout updates the way Northern Virginia localities do so we just don’t know any actual numbers. We also don’t know who these voters are. More specifically, how many independents are showing up? We know from polling they were breaking toward “no” but are they actually bothering to vote? And how many Democratic voters are breaking from the party line? Not many, but not zero, either.
All the signs so far point to this being a close election. We won’t know how close until the votes are actually counted tonight. Polls close at 7 p.m.
2:08 p.m.: Northern Virginia localities lag behind 2025 but hard to make comparisons
Arlington County reports that 14% of its voters have cast ballots by 1:30 p.m. A year ago, the figure was 18%. Combined with a drop-off in early voting, that’s not good for the “yes” side. However, many rural counties don’t provide these regular updates so it’s hard to make comparisons. It’s like only seeing the score on one side of the scoreboard.
1:04 p.m.: Fairfax County lags further behind 2025
Virginia’s most populous locality, Fairfax County, is falling further behind its 2025 vote totals. The county reports that as of noon, 9.6% of the county’s voters had cast ballots today. Forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe says a year ago the figure was 13.6%, so that a lag of four percentage points. Earlier today, Fairfax was running two percentage points behind 2025.
That’s not a good sign for the “yes” side. However, while the “no” side is seeing strong turnout in Republican areas, it may not be at the levels they need.
11:55 a.m.: Republican vote is strong but maybe not strong enough
On his livestream, forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate is looking at the morning voting trends: “I don’t think ‘no’ is having the turnout they need to win.” While turnout in Democratic areas is running behind 2025, he doesn’t see turnout in Republican areas running high enough yet.
10:52 a.m.: Northern Virginia vote lags
The morning vote in Northern Virginia is running low, according to forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate. “This is going to be a Republican election day,” he says on his livestream. The question is whether the Republican base downstate will turn out? He cautions that “this is not a 2021 redux” when Glenn Youngkin led a Republican sweep of the statewide offices.
We know the electorate is redder than usual, but is it red enough for the “no” side to win? Nuttycombe says it may be mid-afternoon before we get a clearer picture of voting trends today.
You can watch Nuttycombe’s livestream here where he’s commenting on the morning voting trends as they come in.
10:25 a.m.: Arlington County running slightly behind 2025 figures
We have our first turnout report. Both forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate and podcast Sam Shaziri report that Arlington is lagging slightly behind 2025 turnout. At 9 a.m., Arlington has had 6% of its voters show up. At that point on election day 2025, Arlington had seen 8% show up. Nuttycombe posts that this is “not a good start for Yes” because Arlington’s early vote was already behind 2025 totals. Arlington’s early vote was down 15.4% from its early vote in 2025; see my column this morning for those details.
I wouldn’t jump to conclusions from just one county. Early voting across the state was running just behind the 2025 governor’s race. What we want to look for is lumpiness; the “no” side needs a lower vote in “yes” areas (such as Arlington) and a higher vote in “no” areas (such as rural Virginia). So far we don’t have enough data to pronounce a trend, but for those who want raw information, here’s your Arlington info.
8:23 a.m.: Elected officials out working the polls
Not surprisingly, elected officials on both sides of the question are out at the polls today. Del. Joe McNamara, R-Roanoke County, posted an early morning video from the Salem Civic Center. Virginians for Fair Elections, the main “yes” group, released a schedule headlined by Lt. Gov. Ghazala Hashmi, who will be at polls in Richmond. The group also listed 14 Democratic state legislators who will be at the polls in their respective districts from Virginia Beach to Loudoun County.
6 a.m.: Polls are now open
Polls have opened across Virginia. They close at 7 p.m. If you have photos or other observations from your polling place, send ’em to me at dwayne@cardinalnews.org and let me know which precinct they’re from.
4 a.m.: Here’s some history
While we wait for results, here’s some historical context.
- Virginia has never had a special election for a constitutional amendment, so we have no precedent for what the turnout will be.
- Virginians haven’t voted down a proposed constitutional amendment since 2016 when they rejected an amendment to enshrine the state’s right-to-work law into the constitution.
- The Department of Elections site shows 72 referendums on constitutional amendments going back to 1927. Of those, only nine were rejected. Most passed by wide margins. Of course, most were also very technical amendments that didn’t generate much controversy.
- The most lopsided yes vote was in 2004, where 87% voted in favor of a constitutional amendment to create a longer line of succession to the governorship in the event the state leadership should be wiped out during an attack. This was one of several actions the state took after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
- The closest vote on a constitutional amendment was in 1954, when voters narrowly rejected a move to allow school boards to borrow certain monies without a local referendum. The vote was 157,808 no, 156,728 yes, a margin of 1,080. Percentage-wise, the no side had 50.2% of the vote. The next closest was in 1960, when 50.3% voted no on an amendment that would have allowed certain elected officials to serve in two or more localities. If there are any historians out there, I’d love to know more about what that was about.
- Among other interesting amendments: In 1928, voters narrowly approved three amendments that led to the superintendent of instruction, the commissioner of agriculture and the state treasurer being appointed, not elected as they had been. We could have had more elections! In 1964, voters rejected an amendment to allow write-in votes in primaries.
If these tidbits sound familiar to you, it’s likely because you read them in our weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, and they seemed fun enough to recycle here. Want more politics and analysis? Sign up for West of the Capital, or any of our other newsletters, here:
