During the campaign for the special election, signs popped up across the parts of the Shenandoah Valley that would get drawn into congressional districts based in Northern Virginia: “Don’t Fairfax Me,” they said.
See our recap
To see how the numbers came in, see our Election Live analysis.
On Tuesday, Virginia got Fairfaxed.
The “yes” side — in favor of redistricting — eked out a narrow, come-from-behind victory only when Fairfax County’s vote totals came in.
The result might be the worst possible outcome for all sides. Here’s why: The congressional map this vote implements is designed to put four Republican House members out of office, but the narrow margin hardly represents a glorious triumph for Democrats. If you look up “winning ugly” in the dictionary, this election is what you’ll find. Democrats may say a win is a win — and in practical terms it is — but the way they won this may inflict some political damage that will linger for years. Here’s my assessment, which spares neither side.
1. The narrow margin may make it easier for the Virginia Supreme Court to overturn the result
The seven justices of the Virginia Supreme Court were probably secretly hoping for “no” to win, so all the court challenges would be moot. Now they remain alive. Before the vote, the court had called the allegations in the Republican lawsuits “grave” — they allege the process by which the vote was put on the ballot violated the state constitution. This involves some potentially tricky questions about defining when an election begins (does early voting count?). Since 1912, the court has historically held that it has the power to review the constitutionality of an allegedly unconstitutional election, but only after the votes are counted. It’s only overturned an election once — in a local referendum in 1958 where the issue was the substance of the issue, not the legality of the vote itself. We now face the prospect of a second, with all the attendant controversy that would bring.
Before the election, some Republicans feared that a landslide loss would mean justices wouldn’t have the stomach to throw out the results but a narrow loss might give them more courage. We now have that narrow loss. The justices probably don’t relish the thought of doing what Republicans are asking them to do: rule this whole thing was based on an unconstitutional premise and tell Virginians their votes don’t count. That seems distasteful — to throw out the will of the people, however narrow that will might be — but justices put themselves in this situation by adhering to that 1912 precedent.
2. Three Republican House members now face big political decisions
The map targets four Republican House members but one of them (Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District) didn’t see her district change much, and that Hampton Roads district has long been a swing district. She would have been vulnerable even if the map hadn’t changed. It’s the other three who now face political decisions. Rob Wittman in the 1st is now drawn into an 8th District with Democrat Don Beyer — and a Northern Virginia majority. Ben Cline and John McGuire are in more difficult situations. Cline, who lives in Botetourt County, now finds himself in a 9th District currently represented by fellow Republican Morgan Griffith. McGuire winds up in the eastern claw of the so-called “lobster district,” a reconfigured 7th District that’s based in Northern Virginia. Wittman and McGuire may be in unwinnable districts while Cline’s immediate options seem to be challenging a fellow Republican — or mounting an out-of-district bid in a Democratic-tilted 6th District.
3. This election probably dooms Beth Macy’s congressional campaign
It won’t end her bid right away, but the new map puts her into a redrawn 6th District with former Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County. They have about the same amount of money but he has more political connections. The only public poll pitting the two against each other showed him with a commanding lead. The irony is that every Roanoke Democrat who voted “yes” essentially voted to end Macy’s campaign before she could get to the fall election.
4. Democrats may have won a Pyrrhic victory
They got the map they wanted, but at what cost? Democrats basically torched Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s approval ratings — or, perhaps, she torched herself. Either way, she comes limping out of this. She took office after a landslide win, with polls showing voters optimistic about her administration. She had promised bipartisanship, but the first thing she had to do was sign the enabling legislation for a highly partisan referendum which, as it turns out, only a bare minimum of Virginians prefer. In some alternative universe, redistricting never happened and Spanberger is still at the peak of her popularity. Here in the real world, she’s now got the lowest approval rating of any new Virginia governor since such polling began in the early 1990s. A new congressional map may not be much comfort to her. She’s going to have a lot of work ahead of her to recover politically, if she can.
Spanberger would have been better off with either a big win (that would show a mandate) or even a defeat (which might have allowed her to move on). This narrow win may be a win but it’s not an impressive one, not for her, not for the party at large. Ironically, if Democrats win big nationally in November, Virginia Democrats may face questions about whether redistricting was really necessary. Could they have won many of these seats the old-fashioned way?
Victory in this special election gives Democrats a short-term win but may not pay off long term.
To draw a 10-1 map, Democrats had to draw their percentages lower than they might like in some districts. That may not matter this fall, which looks to be a big Democratic year. It might not even matter in 2028, another presidential year, given how reliably Democratic Virginia has become in presidential years. But if 2028 elects a Democratic president, then the 2030 midterms are likely to be a Republican year, so some of these seats may well flip Republican.
5. Republicans learn once again how toxic Trump is
Republicans may not think that today, considering how close they came to winning when they were so outspent. Still, they lost — and it’s ultimately Trump’s fault. (Or, perhaps, their own for not challenging him.) If Trump hadn’t encouraged Texas Republicans to redraw lines to give him seats he said he was “entitled” to, four Republican House members in Virginia wouldn’t be in jeopardy right now. He set in motion a nationwide tit-for-tat redistricting that, for the moment, has Democrats ahead. Even if Florida Republicans respond to Virginia by drawing their lines, the national advantage for Republicans will still just be a few seats. Trump set all this turmoil in progress and has nothing really to show for it.
Even as much as Virginians said they despise gerrymandering, they still voted “yes” — and sending a message to Trump was the main “vote yes” message. There’s also this: The Trump administration either couldn’t or wouldn’t send any surrogates to Virginia to campaign for the “no” side, likely because Republicans understood how much that would backfire. The result: Vice President JD Vance went to Hungary to campaign for Viktor Orban (who lost) but couldn’t cross the Potomac to help Virginia Republicans.
When the Department of Elections finally certifies these results, it will go into the books as a win for “yes.” However, it might also go into the history books as a loss for all sides — for Democrats, for Republicans, and for the Virginia Supreme Court.
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