High clouds were already streaming over much of the southern U.S. late Thursday from Hurricane Isaias, expected to move north for a Gulf Coast landfall near the Alabama-Florida line late Friday or early Staurday. Courtesy of National Weather Service.
High clouds were already streaming over much of the southern U.S. late Thursday from Hurricane Isaias, expected to move north for a Gulf Coast landfall near the Alabama-Florida line late Friday or early Staurday. Courtesy of National Weather Service.

This will not be the first no-hurricane Atlantic basin tropical season since 1914.

Virginia will get a soggy weekend, with some flooding possible amid what will largely be beneficial rain, from the remnants of the very tardy first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Isaias, the latest first hurricane since satellites have been used to observe weather over the past 60 years, is steaming northward toward landfall late Friday or early Saturday along the Gulf Coast near the Alabama-Florida border. On Thursday night, it was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph sustained winds, and it may intensify more before coming ashore.

Wind and storm surge are likely to cause substantial damage along the coast, with torrential rain and at least a few tornadoes occurring well inland over the South.

After landfall, Isaias’ circulation center will weaken as it moves northward toward Kentucky, with much of its moisture streaming to the east of the circulation center, rotated by the counterclockwise spin of a post-tropical Isaias.

The result is expected to be widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches over most of Virginia, a large section of which, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge and through  Southside, remain in moderate to extreme drought with depleted reservoirs and water tables.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Virginia, released Thursday, continues to show moderate to severe drought along and east of the Blue Ridge, with the worst dryness over Southside Virginia. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Virginia, released Thursday, continues to show moderate to severe drought along and east of the Blue Ridge, with the worst dryness over Southside Virginia. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.

While some flooding is possible where rain is heaviest, this will not be another Helene, as the atmospheric setup is much different than the conditions that brought on a regional catastrophe in the Appalachians in September 2024.

There is no strong upper-level low to absorb and maintain Helene’s circulation inland as occurred with Helene. Additionally, high pressure to the northeast will press relatively cool air southwest against the mountains, so the moisture will rise over stable air rather  than the warm turbulence that helped fuel storm bands with Helene. The tornado risk is likely to remain south of Virginia in warmer, more unstable air over the Carolinas.

There may be some stronger wind gusts in higher elevations, and geographic or atmospheric features may focus some heavy rain bands that could lead to localized flooding downpours.

For the most part though, a large area of light to moderate rain with some embedded heavier bands is expected to overtake Virginia on Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday.

The ciculation center of Hurricane Isaias is expected to continue tracking northward and weaken after landfall, with much of moisture streaming east of the center toward Virginia. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.
The ciculation center of Hurricane Isaias is expected to continue tracking northward and weaken after landfall, with much of moisture streaming east of the center toward Virginia. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.

The counterclockwise flow around Isaias’ remnant circulation center will pull moist southeast flow against the Appalachians for an extended period, likely enhancing rainfall as the air is lifted and condensed but upslope flow.

Some areas along the Blue Ridge and anywhere else heavier rain trains over the same location may see 4 or more inches of rain. Most locations will get less. Some parts of Southwest Virginia west of Interstate 77 may be downslope from the wettest flow and end up with less than an inch of rain. But much of that area is no longer considered to be in drought, and suffered the most two years ago with Hurricane Helene.

Hurricane development has been kept in check over much of the Atlantic Ocean this season by strong winds aloft that shear the tops off developing tropical systems. This is a common occurrence during an El Niño, the warming of equatorial Pacific waters now among the strongest on record by at least some parameters, and continuing to strengthen.

Consistent with El Niño seasons, the most significant tropical systems often form relatively close to North American shores, rather than tracking long distances westward over the Atlantic.

If you think you remember the name Isaias — pronounced “ee-sah-EE-ahs,” a Spanish form of the name Isaiah — your memory is not playing tricks with you. A previous Hurricane Isaias came ashore as a Category 1 storm near Myrtle Beach in 2020. It was not considered a significant enough storm to have the name “Isaias” retired from usage — so we have another one to deal with.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.  

To submit a photo, send it to weather@cardinalnews.org or tweet it to @CardinalNewsVa or @KevinMyattWx. Please identify the location and date of the photo with each submission.

Sign up for his newsletter:

Kevin Myatt has written about Southwest and Southside Virginia weather for the past two decades, previously...