Welcome to our running updates on the 2026 election. We have live results from the Virginia Department of Elections here.
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12:26 a.m.: That’s it for tonight.
Not sure there’s much else to say, at least here. I’ll have a column in the morning laying out some first impressions and a first review of the numbers.
12:01 a.m.: The vote in the 1st is final.
And yes, Taylor has won.
11:03 p.m.: Taylor declares victory in the 1st
She’s probably right (see my math below).
10: 57 p.m.: Liberty University precinct just reported, boosting McGuire
John McGuire just saw his lead jump from 628 to 2,687. He can thank Liberty University students, who have come in heavy for him in Lynchburg’s Third Ward, Second Precinct. Perriello may be running out of places to find votes. I’m also told there are 1,236 same-day registrations at Liberty cast as provisionals; those will break heavily for McGuire.
10:45 p.m.: Taylor is probably going to oust Wittman in the 1st
At the moment, she leads by 7,841 votes. What’s still out: 19,415 early votes in Hanover County. Two years ago, the early vote in Hanover went 66% Republican. If Wittman got the same share this time, that’s still just a 6,602-vote margin, not enough to make up the difference.
There are also 6,116 votes outstanding in New Kent County. the early vote there also went 66% Republican. If the same this year, that would give Wittman a 2,080-vote margin. Combined with Hanover, that could put him over the top but . . . we don’t know how many provisionals there in the district, particularly in Democratic-voting Williamsburg.
Taylor probably has an edge here if Wittman can’t replicate his early voting share from the past. Since he hasn’t replicated his vote share overall, the odds seem against him.
10:28 p.m.: How many provisionals are in Lynchburg? We don’t know.
Lynchburg is slowly coming in and that’s tightening the 5th District race. At the moment, McGuire leads by 628, which takes us into the territory where provisionals will matter. We know Charlottesville has 1,854, about what it had two years ago. That year, Democrats picked up an 850-vote margin out of the Charlottesville provisionals. What about Lynchburg, where a lot of Liberty students vote, by thunderous Republican margins? We don’t know. The Lynchburg registrar says that as of 1 p.m. there were 546, but that still left six hours of voting. I’m not sure we’ll know the 5th tonight.
9:58 p.m.: Here is the key number in the 5th District
Right now, McGuire leads by 1,327 votes. But we’re still waiting on almost all of Lynchburg. Here’s potentially the key number: There are 1,854 provisional ballots in Charlottesville. That’s a presidential level number. In 2024, there were 1,864 provisionals. Out of those, Kamala Harris took a 850-vote lead. So the question is whether McGuire’s lead tonight gets down to a point where numbers like that would make the difference.
9:44 p.m.: 1st District will come down to the early votes
Rob Wittman leads by 4,361 with all localities reporting except . . . there are 49,146 early votes yet to be counted in Chesterfield that should break Democratic, plus 19,415 early votes to be counted in Hanover that will probably go Republican. We also don’t know how many provisionals ballots are in that district that won’t be adjudicated until later.
9:35 p.m.: 5th District race may not be decided tonight
In the 5th, McGuire leads by 3,733 votes.
Still to be counted: 3,498 early votes in Nelson, which based on historical trends will likely go Democratic by a small margin; 5,004 early votes in Mecklenburg, which will likely go Republican; 9,153 early votes in Campbell, another Republican locality. That’s probably a net advantage for McGuire but . . .we’re still waiting on 2 of 18 precincts in Lynchburg, plus 10,306 early votes there.
We also don’t know how many provisional ballots are in Charlottesville (or elsewhere) from student voters who registered today. We may not know this one tonight.
9:01 p.m.: Luria has pulled ahead, 1st and 5th flip back and forth
At the moment, Elaine Luria holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbents. The 1st District race between Shannon Taylor and Rob Wittman is going back and forth and the 5th District race between Tom Perriello and John McGuire are flipping like fish out of water. Let’s take another look at what’s out and how those votes might go:
1st District: The big thing to know here is that there are 49,136 early votes in Chesterfield County yet to be counted; those will likely break for Taylor. There are also four precincts in Republican Hanover County and 19,415 early votes there yet to be counted. Advantage: Taylor.
2nd District: Most of Suffolk (going Democratic) and Chesapeake (going Republican) are still out. Advantage: Unclear.
5th District: We have 21 of 30 precincts in Albemarle in, so that’s a lot of Democratic votes still out. Cumberland and Mecklenburg haven’t reported at all; both will go strongly Republican. We also have only 10 of 16 precincts in Campbell, another Republican locality. And Lynchburg, still nothing there except early votes and how that goes is anybody’s guess.
8:59 p.m.: Amherst off-track betting results could be days away
The “no” side leads by 25 votes but we still have provisionals and post-election mail ballots to consider. For context, in 2024 Amherst had 204 provisionals and 32 post-election mail ballots
8:50 p.m.: Cline cruising against Macy
I haven’t had much to say about this race because, frankly, there’s not much to say. Republican Ben Cline is cruising to reelection. He’ll likely come in under his usual percentage, but this will still be a double-digit margin. In most places, he’s getting the usual Republican share of the vote. The only exception is Roanoke, a Democratic city where Macy has overperformed versus Kamala Harris in 2024. But that’s not enough in this strongly red district.
8:45 p.m.: In the 5th, who runs out of votes first?
A bunch of Republican counties have reported and John McGuire remains slightly behind Democrat Tom Perriello. Here’s what’s still out:
Mecklenburg County: This will go for McGuire but the question is by how much. There are also votes outstanding in Campbell, Cumberland and Lunenburg, all Republican places.
Albemarle County, Danville: These are going for Perriello, but only 19 of 30 precincts in Albemarle are in, 9 of 16 in Danville. That’s a lot of Albemarle votes still out.
Lynchburg: This thing may come down to Lynchburg, where so far we only have the early votes. Hang on folks.
8:39 pm.: Virginia has three congressional races going down to the wire
The 1st, 2nd and 5th are all exceptionally close. I’ve been trying to follow which localities are in and which ones are out. All could go either way, although right now the balance in the 5th is tipping toward McGuire. All of Charlottesville has reported so Perriello is out of votes there (except for mail ballots and provisionals) while some rural counties that will go Republican haven’t reported yet. What’s still unknown: Still votes out in Democratic-trending Danville and all of Lynchburg, except for the early vote.
8:33 p.m.: Wittman (R) narrowly leads Taylor (D) in the 1st
Here’s the best news for Wittman: He’s carried James City County, which Kamala Harris won two years ago.
Here’s what he should worry about: There are still 28,269 early votes in James City County to be counted, and they’re expect to go to Taylor.
8:26 p.m.: Kiggans (R) narrowly leads Luria (D) in the 2nd
Most of Virginia Beach is in and they’re basically tied there. That means the oucome will be decided in outlying communities where very little of the vote is in. Some of those are Democratic localities, some Republican, some swing. Wait and see.
8:18 p.m.: What’s still out in the 5th
Same as before: Perriello clings to an oh-so-narrow lead. It’s time to start talking about what’s still out.
The good news for McGuire: We have no votes from some Republican counties, such as Cumberland, Hanover, Mecklenburg and Powhatan. They should come in heavy for him; it’s just a matter of how many actual votes we’re talking about.
The good news for Perriello: We have only 8 of 30 precincts in Albemarle in; that’s a big source of votes there and only 6 of 16 in Danville.
The big unknown: Lynchburg. There’s just the early vote so far; no actual precincts. Lynchburg is a place that could go either way, much like the district overall.
8:04 p.m.: What we know about the 5th
It’s going to be very close. Perriello has a very slim lead. The good news for Perriello: In many rural (Republican) areas, McGuire’s vote totals are running well below Trump’s two years ago while Perriello is tracking closer to Kamala Harris. The bad news for Perriello: Most of the vote in Charlottesville is now in; six of nine precincts, although there will still be an untold number of provisional ballots there from student voters. This is going to be a wild one.
7:46 p.m.: Here’s what I’m watching in the 5th District
We’re getting some of the vote in from rural, and therefore Republican, counties, but what I’m noticing is the big drop-off between the Trump vote in 2024 and the McGuire vote this year. That’s to be expected in a midterm but, as previously reported, there’s presidential-level turnout (or better) in some Democratic localities, such as Charlottesville. This is still way too close to call but the trend that Democrat Tom Perriello needs is developing. We’ll keep a close eye on this.
7:40 p.m.: Cline pulling away from Macy as rural vote comes in
The vote we’re seeing now is mostly from the rural areas of the district.
7:34 p.m.: More good news for Perriello
He’s won the mail voting in Louisa. Kamala Harris won it two years ago, but Perriello is winning it by a larger margin. Harris took 67.6%; Perriello has taken 73.26%. What I’m noticing is the big drop-off in the Republican vote. John McGuire is running at about half Trump’s totals, while Perriello is getting more of the Harris total.
7:28 p.m.: Macy leads in early returns in 6th; here’s why
The first numbers in the 6th include the mail vote from Roanoke, which, not surprisingly, is strongly Democratic. We have some scattered numbers from rural parts of the district, where Cline is often exceeding Trump’s percentage from two years ago. For instance, Bath County is nearly complete. Cline is taking 78% there, Trump 76%.
7:23 p.m.: Perriello has won the early voting in a county where Trump won it two years ago
Democrat Tom Perriello has taken 52.5% of the early vote in Buckingham County. Two years ago, Donald Trump took 57.6% of the early vote there. This is a good early sign for Perriello but still lots of precincts to go.
7:14 p.m.: Numbers are starting to arrive!
The first ones come from Buckingham County, Colonial Heights, Dinwiddie County and Madison County. Details to come!
7:08 p.m.: Warner will deliver remarks at 8:15 p.m.
You can see his livestream here.
7:03 p.m.: AP, others say Warner has won
No actual votes reported yet but I think we all know how that one will go.
7 p.m.: The polls have closed.
And now we wait.
6:58 p.m.: The band is playing at Macy headquarters
Macy, the Democratic candidate in the 6th District, is at The Exchange in downtown Roanoke. Republican incumbent Ben Cline will be at Common Ground in Fishersville in Augusta County. We have people at both locations.
6:36 p.m.: Another Charlottesville precinct exceeds presidential turnout
The Trailblazer precinct in Charlottesville (formerly Venable) was an 82% Democratic precinct in the presidential election two years. As of 6:30, it’s exceeed its presidential level turnout. Cardinal’s Elizebeth Beyer has talked to election chief Jessica Otey who says “turnount has been bonkers. More from Elizabeth: “Approaching 600 provisionals (same day registration) as of 6:30 pm. Attributes local turn out to the 5th CD and Perriello hitting students hard to turn them out, also the amendments could be a driver. 2024 reg ballots cast on Election Day was 923, as of 6:30 p.m. that number was 1,044.”
6:14 p.m.: Key student precinct in Charlottesville already exceeds presidential turnout
We have no clue who’s going to win the 5th District race but Democrat Tom Perriello appears to be doing what he needs to do: Generating a big student turnout. Cardinal’s Elizabeth Beyer is in Charlottesville tonight where both Perriello and Republican incumbent John McGuire will be. She just stopped by the Tall Oaks Precinct (formerly the Johnson precinct). As of 6 p.m.: 320 provisionals, 1,245 regular votes cast there, according to Michelle Washington, election chief of the precinct.
In the 2024 presidential election, that precinct saw 1,053 election day voters, so Tall Oaks is already ahead of that. This year’s early vote was 742, just behind the 775 two years ago. The bottom line: Tall Oaks will cast more ballots than the presidential election. In that election, Kamala Harris took 84% of the vote. We’ll have a clearer picture once we know more about turnout in the rural parts of the 5th (which are more Republican) and, of course, see some actual vote tallies. But this is encouraging for Perriello. As Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate posted earlier, he’s “in the game.”
6:02 p.m.: The Cardinal election night crew starts to gorge on pizza
This may not be the most important news item but for journalists working election night, this is the most important part of the night: The pizza has arrived! Cardinal tonight has journalists scattered from Wise County to Newport News, but for these four journalists working in Roanoke, it’s chow time.
5:16 p.m.: Student voting in Charlottesville is up 111% over last year
Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate, who has been following turnout all day, reports that student voting in Charlottesville is running 111% higher than last year as of 4:30 p.m. That’s key for Democrat Tom Perriello, who needs a big student turnout to pull off an upset over Republican incumbent John McGuire in the 5th District. Voters who register today (as many students do) cast provisional ballots that won’t be counted tonight so in a tight race, it’s possible we may not have a decision in the 5th tonight. Nuttycombe’s assessment: “Tom Perriello is in the game.”
Earlier today, Perriello worked the polls in Farmville in Prince Edward County and greeted some Longwood University students.
We’re also seeing heavy voting from Virginia Tech students in Blacksburg (they’re in the 9th Congressional District). That’s not considered a competitive district but those student voters could make a difference in the Montgomery County sheriff’s race.
5:06 p.m.: Speaker Johnson will be watching three Virginia races closely
CNN reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, will be watching three Virginia races closely to get a sense of how the night will go: the 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts, all held now by Republicans. Losing the 2nd (held by Jen Kiggans) would be bad, but not may not indicate a blue wave. Losing the 1st (held by Rob Wittman) would. And if Republicans lose the 5th (held by John McGuire): “If we lose John McGuire’s district in Virginia 5, then we are in for a bloodbath,” an unnamed Republican told CNN.
4:56 p.m.: Fairfax County and Prince William County voting at higher rates than last year
Fairfax County reports that as of 3 p.m., 47.49% of its voters had cast ballots (either today or through early voting). That’s up from 44.0% at 3 p.m. in last year’s governor’s race.
Prince William County also reports turnout higher today than last year.
This is akin to the old George Carlin joke about sportscasters: “And here’s a partial score, Philadelphia 3.” Without knowing more about other localities, we can form a complete picture but it does appear that these Northern Virginia localities (both of which typically vote Democratic) are going to come in higher than last year’s turnout. That’s good news for Democrat Mark Warner in the Senate race and the three constitutional amendments, but doesn’t give us any insight into the most contested congressional races, which aren’t in Northern Virginia.
2:13 p.m.: Data site says Virginia Democrats are voting at higher rate than Republicans
G. Elliott Morris, author of “Strength in Numbers” and newsletter by the same name, reports that Democrats are voting at a rate 9-10 percentage points higher than Republicans across Virginia today. He draws on data collected by State Navigate (run by Virginia Tech grad Chaz Nuttycombe). This chart doesn’t appear to have every locality in Virginia, but notably it shows a high turnout rate in Henrico County, a Democratic-voting locality that’s home to Shannon Taylor, who is challenging Republican incumbent Rob Wittman. This ought to be good news for her, although I’d like to see more localities to draw firmer conclusions. Notice that James City County, another locality Taylor will need, is voting at a lower rate.
1 p.m.: Obama robocall for Macy pushes data center moratorium
Former President Barack Obama has recorded a robocall for Beth Macy, the Democratic candidate in the 6th District who is challenging Republican incumbent Ben Cline. It emphasizes her support for a data center moratorium, according to CNN, which obtained a recording of the call.
“If you send her to Congress, she’ll fight to lower everyday costs, make healthcare more affordable, and pass a moratorium on data centers,” Obama says in the recording, according to CNN.
Cardinal’s Elizabeth Beyer wrote earlier this fall about where both candidates stand on data centers. Cline has indicated support for a “pause” but Macy has made a moratorium more central to her campaign.
12:47 p.m.: Fairfax County turnout trending higher than last year
We have our first turnout report. It’s from 9 a.m., so we’re looking back in time several hours. Fairfax County reports that as of that hour, 6.19% of its registered voters had cast ballots today, while 27.9% had voted early. That’s a total turnout as of 9 a.m. of 34.09%.
For comparison, at that point a year ago, 6.2% of Fairfax County voters had voted that day while 23.9% had voted early, for a total turnout of 30.1%. Fairfax County last year eventually posted a final turnout of 55%, just a shade higher than the statewide turnout of 54.31%.
If those trends hold, the Fairfax numbers suggest Virginia’s totall turnout will come in higher than last year’s governor’s race. Of course, that ultimately depends on turnout in 132 other localities and we saw that the early voting turnout in many rural localities has lagged.
11:56 a.m.: Dueling Republican sample ballots in Lynchburg
Lynchburg has two rival Republican slates for city council, both running as independents after the state party voided the results of the party-run process that attempted to nominate council candidates. Sometimes it seems those two slates dislike each other more than they dislike the Democratic slate. Today Lynchburg voters may see two different sample ballots claiming to be the Republican sample ballot. Lynchburg council member Chris Faraldi (who is supporting the Team Lynchburg slate) shares these photos:
8:53 a.m.: Both McGuire and Perriello are out at the polls today
The 5th Congressional District is one we’ll be keeping special tabs on today. Forecasters can’t agree on how it will go: Cook Political Report has it leans Republican, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it leans Democratic. The only thing we know for sure is that it likely will be close.
Both candidates were up and at ’em early this morning, Republican incumbent John McGuire in Goochland County, Democratic challenge Tom Perriello in Halifax County. Here are some photos they posted.
My Monday column looked at the disparities in early voting in the district, with Democratic localities having a heavy early vote while many Republican localities lagged. McGuire will want and need a big day-of turnout today.
6 a.m.: The polls are now open
And so it begins. If you have photos from your polling place (signs, lines, no lines, whatever), please share them at dwayne@cardinalnews.org and let me know what precinct they’re from.\
Takis Karantonis of the Arlington County Board (no board of supervisors there, just board) posts this cool video of a polling place opening:
4 a.m.: The early voting was ‘lumpy’ in ways that appear to favor Democrats (but not all of them)
The only thing we know for certain is that at least 1,634,190 Virginians have voted early. I say “at least” because, while the in-person early voting concluded Saturday, mail ballots are still arriving (and under Virginia law, can still be counted if they are properly postmarked and arrive by Friday). That’s 13.9% more early votes than we had in last year’s governor’s race, but we won’t know until the election is over whether that represents an actual increase in voting or whether one or both parties simply shifted voters from day-of voting to early voting. If it’s an actual increase, then we’re looking at turnout north of last year’s 54.13% of registered voters. The record in Virginia for a congressional midterm is 59.15%. That was in 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term.
The early voting is “lumpy,” meaning it’s higher in some places than others. I addressed that in a column Monday: The general theme is that early voting in some Democratic localities is running closer to their 2024 levels while Republican localities are lagging. Southwest Virginia, in particular, is running well behind its 2024 levels:
This map shows how close each locality came in the 2026 early voting to matching its early voting in the 2024 presidential election. The greener a locality is, the closer it came to the presidential year early vote; the brown localities came in lower.
My column Monday went into more details, but for those who just want the highlights: The voter drop-off in Southwest Virginia is not good for the “no” side on the constitutional amendments. The “no” side will need a big day-of turnout there to make up for that.
The turnout patterns in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts are inconclusive to my eye and aren’t helpful to Democrats in the 6th. The key place to watch is the 5th District, where Democrat Tom Perriello is challenging Republican John McGuire.
You’ll notice the particularly high voting levels in the Democratic strongholds: Charlottesville, Danville, Albemarle County. Think of this in terms of a tornado watch. A tornado watch doesn’t mean there’s a tornado, just that conditions exist for one to form. Same here: This doesn’t mean there’s a Democratic upset in the making, but it does mean conditions exist. The key is how heavy the day-of voting will be in that district. That’s one of many things we’ll be watching today.
And if you’ve gotten this far, you might be interested in some of our other newsletters:
