We are now three weeks from Election Day.
If this year is like last year (and there are some rough similarities), then about 15% of the total votes have already been cast, which means there are still a lot of votes out there waiting to be cast — and, in some cases, voters waiting to be persuaded.
Here’s what we know about where we stand.
1. The early vote in Virginia is running slightly more Democratic than it did last year
The early vote always trends Democratic. Democrats prefer to vote early; Republicans don’t. I’ve long argued that Republicans are making a tactical mistake by not embracing early voting more enthusiastically. Without it, they risk too much on a single day when the weather might be bad or voters might not be in the mood. Nonetheless, the two parties have different preferences.
The State Navigate forecasting site (founded by Virginia Tech graduate Chaz Nuttycomb) is running a daily analysis of the trends and concludes that the early vote is 3.2 percentage points more Democratic than it was a year ago — which, of course, turned out to be a big year for Democrats in Virginia.
However, those Democratic trends are not consistent across the state. The strongest shift toward Democrats is in the 10th congressional district in Northern Virginia, where the leftward movement is 6.8 percentage points. That won’t do Democrats much good there — it’s already a solidly Democratic district represented by Suhas Subramanyam — although it will help Democrat Mark Warner, who is seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate, and the “yes” side on the three proposed constitutional amendments.
The weakest shift toward Democrats is in the 8th District in Northern Virginia, which is already the most Democratic district in the state, so there simply may not be that much room to grow there. The early vote in that district is showing up 2.6 percentage points bluer than last year.
Just because the vote is more Democratic than usual doesn’t mean it’s actually Democratic in some districts — just that Democrats are doing better. In the 9th District in Southwest Virginia, there are so few Democratic voters left that even with Republicans reluctant to vote early, Republicans still won the early vote there last year by 23.4 percentage points. State Navigate says Republicans are still winning the early vote there this year, just not by as much.
Of course, what we all really want to know is to what extent these trends foreshadow the upcoming results. The trends have not changed appreciably since I crunched the numbers a few weeks ago: These trends, if they hold, and if they are not swamped by an out-of-the-ordinary Election Day turnout, are enough to put Democrats in position to flip the Republican-held seats in the 1st and 2nd districts (Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, respectively) and make the 5th District race close (that’s the one where Democrat Tom Perriello is challenging Republican incumbent John McGuire).
Although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has designated the 6th District as a “targeted” race, there is nothing in the early voting math to indicate that Republican Ben Cline is in any trouble, despite a well-funded and energetic challenge by Democrat Beth Macy. The Democratic shift in the early voting is on the low side compared to other districts (3.7 percentage points). Also, the early voting in the district’s Democratic strongholds — notably Roanoke, the biggest — is down from last year this time (-6.2%, to be precise). It’s down in some key Republican communities, too, but not by as much, and actually up in some others. The early voting in bright red Rockingham County is up 2.4%.
That’s in distinct contrast to the 5th District next door, where the Democratic shift is 6.7 percentage points, second-highest in the state. Also notable in the 5th District: the early vote in Democratic localities is up from last year (Albemarle County is up 24.2% and Charlottesville is up 36.1%) while the early vote in Republican communities is down, sometimes by a lot (Campbell County is down -10.4%, Goochland County is down -17.4%). That is what is putting the 5th district within Perriello’s reach. Macy needs the 6th District trends to look more like the 5th, but they’re not.
I dealt with all this math in excruciating detail in last week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter, and will likely revisit it again. If you’re not already signed up, you can sign up here:
2. Voters are unhappy with both parties
We are swamped with “generic ballot” polls and polls from battleground states. Realistically, only parts of Virginia are battleground-worthy, and there’s almost no public polling on those. That relieves us of the question of whether to believe the polls (parties that are behind always contend they’re wrong). The Washington Post-Schar School has conducted the only public poll in Virginia that doesn’t come from a party-aligned pollster, and it focused on just two congressional districts: the 1st and the 5th. That poll showed Democrat Shannon Taylor narrowly ahead of Wittman in the 1st and the Republican McGuire narrowly ahead of Perriello in the 5th.
That’s interesting, but this is more telling: In both districts, voters don’t like Democrats. The bad news for Wittman in the 1st is that voters there despise Republicans even more. If Taylor is ahead, it’s not because voters like her party; they just like Wittman’s less right now. Even in the more Republican 5th District, there’s not a majority in favor of the party right now. And in both districts, the thought of “MAGA Republicans” turns off half or more of the voters. That makes McGuire’s decision to emphasize that he’s “Trump endorsed” both fascinating and problematic. He’s definitely taking a political risk. Meanwhile, this is also why Perriello and Taylor aren’t playing up their party affiliation. In these districts, a “D” label hurts more than it helps.
Here are the numbers:
1st District: Asked about their impressions of the two parties, 49% of likely voters had an unfavorable impression of Democrats, only 40% a favorable one. Meanwhile, 54% had an unfavorable impression of Republicans, only 38% a favorable one.
5th District: 57% have an unfavorable impression of Democrats, only 33% a favorable one. Meanwhile, 46% have an unfavorable impression of Republicans, 45% have a favorable one.
Voters in both districts have even more unfavorable views about particular types of Democrats and Republicans — they really don’t like Democratic Socialists and MAGA Republicans.
Democratic Socialists:
1st District: 51% unfavorable, 25% favorable.
5th District: 58% unfavorable, 23% favorable.
Make America Great Again Republicans:
1st District: 57% unfavorable, 31% favorable.
5th District: 50% unfavorable, 34% favorable.
Those numbers raise lots of questions about the direction of both parties. My sense is that voters want “normal” candidates from both parties; that’s not something a lot of party activists on either side want to hear. In both districts, Democrats had a favorable view of Democratic Socialists and Republicans had a favorable view of Make America Great Again Republicans.
3. The most important poll has nothing to do with politics; it has to do with consumer sentiment
Forget the polls I just mentioned. Forget the generic ballot polls; we don’t vote on generic candidates, we vote on specific ones. Forget even the polls that show dismal approval ratings for President Donald Trump. Those are important — and not helpful to Republicans — but we don’t need them to understand the political environment. Instead, we just need the University of Michigan’s monthly survey behind the school’s consumer sentiment index that’s regarded as the gold standard of such measures.
Here’s the bad news for Republicans: Consumer sentiment has been falling pretty consistently through Trump’s second presidency — and fell in early October from early September. It’s down 3.7% from last month and down 13.6% from a year ago this time. You’ll notice from the chart that the numbers under Joe Biden’s presidency and Trump’s second term are distinctly lower than under Trump’s first term — which suggests that anyone who voted for Trump in 2024 expecting him to restore the economy of his first term has been disappointed. Indeed, when the poll looks at responses politically, we see consumer sentiment down among all political groups — Democrats, Republicans and especially independents. Will this have the effect of depressing the Republican vote and swinging independents to Democrats?
Put another way: If the economy were better, would voters be as unhappy with Trump as the approval polls show they are?
4. The economy is hurting Republicans
What people think about the economy is more important than the actual economy. Inflation was subsiding in 2024, but voters punished Democrats anyway. The economy was improving in 1992, but voters punished George H.W. Bush and Republicans that year. People react more to impressions and feelings than statistics. Nonetheless, the statistics aren’t helpful for Republicans. Gas prices may be inching down, but they’re still way up from what they were. Inflation is down from the Biden era but still higher than it was under Trump’s first term. Manufacturing jobs are down, even though Trump said he would revive them (reality check: No president of either party has been able to revive manufacturing in any appreciable way, so this is not a uniquely Trump issue.)
The chart that may be the most worrisome is the one above; from the first quarter of 2025 (when Trump returned to office) to the first quarter of 2026, wages were down in some parts of the country. In Virginia, those places correspond to many Republican-held congressional districts. Those figures may improve, but often impressions set in and are difficult to shake. (I wrote more about wage growth and shrinkage in Monday’s column.)
5. Democrats are running against ‘corruption‘
Many Democratic congressional candidates are seeking to portray their opponents as “corrupt.” Voters historically believe that politicians are on the take, so this is an easy pitch to make. Trump’s blatant attempts to profit from the presidency have made this an even more inviting line of attack for Democrats. “With so much frustration over the cost of living, candidates see an opportunity to argue that incumbents are more interested in looking out for themselves or donors than their constituents,” The Associated Press reports. “For some Democrats, it’s also an indirect way to remind voters of controversies surrounding President Donald Trump’s family business interests.” And, to be fair, some incumbents haven’t exactly helped themselves here with their stock trading.
One way or another, Democratic challengers against Kiggans, Wittman, McGuire and Cline have all called them “corrupt.” (Perhaps others have, too, but those are the ones where I’ve seen or heard ads.) Some of these charges stretch the definition of what is “corrupt.” I think of corruption as a quid pro quo — here’s some money if you vote my way. Macy hits Cline for taking corporate money and then voting for tax breaks. Is that corruption? Or is that simply ideology? Republicans by nature like to vote for tax breaks; that’s their economic worldview. Does it require campaign contributions to get Republicans to act on those beliefs? Is that corruption or simply a dispute over economic policy?
Politically, it may not matter. This is a key Democratic theme, and voters are receptive to the message. A poll by AP and NORC (a research center at the University of Chicago) found that “Nearly half of voters say the word ‘corrupt’ describes the Republican Party ‘extremely’ or ‘very well’ while 37% say the same about the Democratic Party.”
History shows that true corruption is not unique to either party, but right now voters are associating corruption with Republicans.
6. Data centers and artificial intelligence are the new issues this year
The economy has always been an issue for somebody. What’s new this year is the entrance of data centers and artificial intelligence into the picture. Polls show that both Democratic and Republican voters have swung against data centers, although it’s Democratic candidates who have been the most vocal in trying to make them an issue. Sen. Mark Warner’s first television ad this year dealt with AI (he wants regulation). In the 5th District, one of those bricks in the “wall of corruption” that Perriello is hammering in his commercial deals with data centers. In the 6th District, both candidates have called for a moratorium, although Macy has made that a centerpiece of her campaign. She’s held a town hall on AI in Staunton and has criticized Cline for taking money from technology interests.
How will this play out? That’s unclear. There are few data centers in the 6th District — either one or two, depending on whether you go by a map put together by the Piedmont Environmental Council or Cleanview — although data center projects have stirred much controversy in both the Roanoke Valley and northern Shenandoah Valley. Meanwhile, there are 827 workers at the Munters plant in Botetourt County whose livelihoods depend on making HVAC equipment for data centers. Nobody talks about them.
In the 5th District, Perriello has kicked off a series of “AI and Data Center Town Halls,” with the first coming this past Sunday in Goochland County. That’s a fascinating location. That’s John McGuire’s home county and one of the most reliable Republican counties in the state. However, there’s also been much controversy there over a Technology Overlay District that’s intended to promote data center development. Politically, this is a way for Perriello to cause difficulty for McGuire with his base.
7. Trump is a factor — and a wild card
This is hardly surprising, but Trump is a key driver in this election — mostly for Democratic voters. The Post-Schar School poll found that in both the districts surveyed, many voters said one reason they are voting the way they are is “to express opposition to Trump.” Neither district shows a majority with an anti-Trump vote — that’s the good news for Republicans.
Still, in the 1st District, 46% of the likely voters surveyed said opposing Trump is a factor in their vote, 37% said he’s not a factor while only 15% said they will be voting to support Trump.
Even in the more Republican 5th District, 40% said opposing Trump is a factor in their vote, 38% said he’s not a factor, while 21% said they’d be voting to support Trump.
This is a sentiment for Democrats to build on and Republicans to work around — if they want to. McGuire hasn’t. He still has signs that advertise him as “Trump endorsed” while Wittman has taken moves to distance himself from Trump, posting on social media that “representing #VA01 means putting YOU first. Even when that means disagreeing with a president of my own party.”
Note that these polls came before this weekend’s events where Trump effectively aligned himself with Russia against Ukraine by announcing he’d import Russian diesel. It’s hard to imagine Ronald Reagan doing that, but Reagan may now be a long way in Republicans’ rearview mirror. The point is: Trump is currently unpopular and, on any given day, he’s capable of dominating the news in a way that won’t be helpful to Republican candidates who already have to deal with unfavorable trends on the economy.
8. Despite all these trends, many Democrats are still running on Republican ground
The 2nd District in Hampton Roads is always a swing district, so let’s set that aside. The other districts that Democrats have targeted are all historically Republican districts. The 1st has been moving to the left due to demographic changes — growing population in the Richmond suburbs. However, the 5th, 6th and 9th remain classically Republican districts with lots of rural voters. Even the 2nd District has more rural voters now than it did when Elaine Luria first won that seat under a differently shaped district in 2018 and won it again in 2020. Luria and Taylor can overcome the rural vote in their districts by producing big turnouts from suburban Democrats. However, Democrats in the other Republican districts need to make actual inroads with rural voters if they’re to have any hope of victory. For all the economic and political trends arrayed against Republicans this year, the one sure thing in their favor is demography in the 5th, 6th and 9th. That’s why part of the Republican counterpunch is simply to call the Democrats, well, Democrats.
9. Debates have become a thing of the past
Out of 11 House races and one Senate race, we appear to have had just one debate this season: In the 10th District, Democratic incumbent Suhas Subramanyam and Republican challenger Dave Beckwith recently debated before the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce.
Elsewhere, we often simply have debates about debates. In the 6th District, Macy challenged Cline to three debates. He accepted, then unilaterally announced the three events he’d do. She said she couldn’t make two of them, and they weren’t real debates anyway; they were “forums.” In the end, both candidates got a talking point — each claiming the other is afraid to debate.
In the 9th District, Republican incumbent Morgan Griffith flat-out said he wasn’t going to debate because voters already know where he stands and it was pointless to engage in an event where he said candidates would trade scripted lines.
Candidates who want debates usually make more of them than voters do. Voters expect a presidential debate, and they might watch a gubernatorial debate. Congressional debates, though, have rarely been a big deal. The reality is that unless they’re broadcast in some fashion, only the people in the room hear the candidates — and the main value is in whatever news stories come out of the event. Those stories also tend to be pretty bland: “Sen. Flugelhorn and Rep. Hornblower trade barbs.” Campaigns, though, can spin the clips however they want: “Flugelhorn stumbles in attempt to defend his record.” That’s why challengers almost always want debates — they want an opportunity to stand equal with the incumbent and potentially embarrass him or her.
The question is whether anyone other than partisans care about congressional debates, or the lack thereof.
10. Congressional candidates don’t like to be pinned down on the issues
We sent an issues questionnaire to every candidate in the state — more than 3,400 of them. The highest response rate came from local candidates. All the candidates for the Roanoke City Council responded; you can see the Roanoke page on our Voter Guide to see where they stand. Ditto the candidates for Salem City Council. Both candidates for Montgomery County sheriff responded. Eight of nine candidates for Lynchburg City Council responded. Eight of 11 running for the Danville City Council responded. So forth and so on. We even have responses from two of three candidates running for the Arlington County Board and two of three candidates running for Newport News mayor, even though those communities aren’t part of our formal coverage area.
Congressional candidates, meanwhile, have been noticeably reluctant to answer questions that don’t fit their campaign message. Out of 11 House incumbents, only one — Don Beyer in the safely Democratic 8th District — responded. Only a few challengers responded, too. Of the 11 major-party challengers, only five responded, and most of those are in noncompetitive districts. (Remarkably, given these trends, both Senate candidates responded.) The only district where all the congressional candidates replied is the 8th District. In the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th, none of the major party candidates responded to multiple requests. Read into that whatever you want. My takeaway: You have a better chance of finding out where your local candidates stand than your House candidates.
You can see who responded and what they had to say on our Voter Guide; we have separate pages for all 133 counties and cities in Virginia. And three weeks from tonight, we’ll see how all these trends come together to determine whatever the outcome is.
If you’ve read all this way, you may want even more political news. You can get it each Friday in West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up for that or any of our other newsletters here:
