We enter October with a flurry of developments in Virginia’s congressional campaigns. Let’s try to make sense of them.
We’ll start with what’s happening on the surface, and then we’ll drill down to the math that is driving some things.
Over the past week, some of the forecasters who offer ratings in congressional races downgraded Republican chances — and upgraded Democratic prospects — in three Virginia districts. The most notable of those may be from the forecaster who is based in Virginia: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, part of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia that the famed political analyst Larry Sabato runs.
The forecast moved three districts in the Democrats’ favor:
The 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor is challenging Republican incumbent Rob Wittman, was moved from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
The 2nd District, where Democrat Elaine Luria is challenging Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, was moved from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
The 5th District, where Democrat Tom Perriello is challenging Republican incumbent John McGuire, was moved from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”
What forecasters think can be easily dismissed as simply predictions, but it’s hard to ignore actual actions. On that front, two of President Donald Trump’s political action committees have now put money into all three districts. It wouldn’t be doing that if it didn’t think it needed to defend those seats against Democratic threats. The 2nd District isn’t a surprise — that’s almost always a swing district. The 1st District isn’t that much of a surprise — that’s a seat Democrats have targeted and previous elections show is within reach. The 5th District is a surprise — that’s been a solid, although not overwhelmingly so, Republican district. If Republicans feel a need to spend money there, that’s a clear sign that they’re worried that a blue wave could wash away some incumbents previously thought safe.
The public is not privy to most of the polling that is taking place, but this week we did get a glimpse when The Washington Post, in conjunction with the Schar School at George Mason University, polled two of these districts. That poll found Taylor with a narrow lead over Wittman: 50% to 46% among likely voters, although that falls within the margin of error. Meanwhile, the poll found McGuire ahead but in a tight race: 51% to 45%. Finally, we have access to something that might be even more telling than polls. We have the numbers from almost two weeks’ worth of early voting in Virginia.
They do not paint a happy picture for Republicans, although just how unhappy that picture might be is open to dispute.
For this analysis, I’ve compared the early voting trends through Wednesday to the same period last year. I chose last year rather than the last set of midterms in 2022 because early voting has become much more commonplace since then. The 2025 state elections were big ones for Democrats, so we do need to keep that in mind. They were, though, the most recent, so they have that going for them as a baseline. We also see that the early voting this year is running somewhat behind last year’s tally — so far, we have 255,025 votes cast this year vs. 264,810 at this point a year ago.
That’s a decline of 3.7%, a percentage you’ll want to keep in mind as we get deeper into this discussion.
I’ve put together two maps to show the early voting numbers two different ways.
This map shows by how much the early vote is up or down from this time last year in terms of actual votes. Not surprisingly, the biggest changes in both directions are in the urban crescent because that’s where the votes are.
This map shows by how much the early vote is up or down from last year in percentage terms. Now we start to see more variation. Here’s what I’m seeing:
Let’s dig into what these two maps show.
The early vote tends to be up in Democratic localities and down in Republican ones
Keep in mind that the early vote always runs blue; Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting early than Republicans are — something Republicans need to correct because they’re banking too much on a single day. Because Virginia doesn’t register voters by party, we can’t say exactly who is voting early. In theory, these could all be Republicans. In practice, if the early vote is up 32.3% in Fairfax County, a county that always votes strongly Democratic, then that means there are likely even more Democratic votes than usual being cast. Likewise, if the early vote is down 52.1% in Scott County, a hardcore Republican county, that means there are likely fewer Republican votes being cast there. When we look at the raw numbers and realize that Fairfax County has cast 8,762 more early votes than last year this time, and Scott County is down 161, we get some sense of the problem likely developing for Republicans. Democrats appear to be banking more votes than they did last year, a good year for them, while Republicans appear to be casting fewer votes. State Navigate, the forecasting site run by Virginia Tech grad Chaz Nuttycombe, sees the early voting running 4.2 percentage points more Democratic than a year ago.
It’s possible, of course, that these trends turn around — or that Republicans roar back with a massive Election Day turnout. The difficulty with that scenario is a Newtonian one: Momentum is hard to change without some outside force intervening, be it in physics or in politics.
These early voting trends are a good sign for the “yes” side on the three constitutional amendments
The only good news I can find here for Republicans is that the impact of these trends may be limited because of what’s on the ballot this year. Our U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Mark Warner and Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa hasn’t been considered competitive anyway. All those extra Democratic votes in Fairfax County won’t really matter in House races, either. All three congressional districts that are part of Fairfax County are considered strongly Democratic anyway.
Where this Democratic tilt will matter is with the three proposed constitutional amendments on the state ballot: about abortion/reproductive health, same-sex marriage and restoration of rights. This is not the kind of turnout the “no” side will need to defeat those measures, but it is the kind of turnout that the “yes” side will want. What the “no” side needs is a turnout that looks more like the 2021 governor’s race where Glenn Youngkin led a Republican sweep. That year, we saw higher-than-usual turnout in rural areas and only average turnout in the urban crescent. That’s not what’s happening here.
Now let’s look at some noteworthy congressional districts.
2nd District: Virginia Beach is the big unknown
In last year’s governor’s race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the precincts in the 2nd District with 53.6% of the vote; remember that our comparisons are against those totals, so we start with something of a blue baseline. So far this year, the early vote in Chesapeake (which voted for Kiggans in her previous two elections) is down by 1,236 votes while the early vote in Suffolk (which Kiggans’ previous Democratic opponents always carried) is up by 363 votes over last year.
The trends in those two localities would sure seem to be good news for Luria, who is hoping to reclaim the seat she lost four years ago. However, Virginia Beach accounts for almost 57% of the voters in this district. In Kiggans’ previous elections, she’s won “the beach” each time, albeit narrowly. So far this year, the early turnout in Virginia Beach is up by 18.9% over last year — an additional 2,032 votes. Since Spanberger won Virginia Beach last year, and the early vote is even higher than when she ran, this might be good news for Luria, but we really can’t say for certain. Not with this data anyway.
It makes sense in a Democratic year (and midterms historically go against the president’s party) that Kiggans would be the most vulnerable Republican in Virginia simply because this district is always a close one. She won her previous two elections with vote shares of 51.63% and 50.74%, so this is a district that’s always on the edge. State Navigate believes we’re seeing a shift of 5.9 percentage points toward the Democrats in the 2nd. If that’s so, and if those trends hold, that would seem to be enough to tip the 2nd into Democratic hands.
1st District: The early vote is down everywhere but down more in Republican counties
Here’s where the fun begins — and why we can’t automatically extrapolate those statewide trends to specific districts. The early vote in the 1st District is running lower than last year everywhere, Democratic and Republican localities alike — although, in percentage terms, it is down more in rural Republican areas.
Wittman has always won easily before, but last year Spanberger took the 1st with 51.0% of the vote — that’s part of what has given encouragement to Democrats. Mathematically, this is a winnable district for them. It would be more clearly winnable if the turnout in Democratic localities was up, but it’s not.
To win, Taylor will need big majorities in the Richmond suburbs to offset Republican margins in rural areas. However, early voting is down 6.2% in Henrico County and down 10.9% in Chesterfield County. Both those counties are split between two congressional districts, so it’s impossible from this data to tell precisely how it’s doing in the parts of those counties that are in the 1st. On the other hand, the early vote is down even more in the rural counties that Wittman needs — down 31.3% in his home base in Westmoreland County, down 60.9% in King William County, down 74.5% in the small city of Poquoson. Republicans need to start cranking up the vote in those rural counties.
State Navigate estimates that in this year’s early voting we’re seeing a shift of 6.5 percentage points toward the Democrats versus last year’s early voting. As in the 2nd District, that would seem to be more than enough for Democrats to flip this district.
Wittman recently posted that “representing #VA01 means putting YOU first. Even when that means disagreeing with a president of my own party.” Will distancing himself from an unpopular Trump be enough? Or will that just further depress the Republican vote?
The Post poll suggests this could be a smart strategy: 59% of the voters surveyed in the 1st District disapprove of Trump, so Wittman will need votes from some people who don’t like the president. Unfortunately for him, the poll also found that 53% of those surveyed want Democrats to control the House.
5th District: Perriello is doing what he needs to do, but will it be enough?
The most fascinating early voting numbers come from the 5th District. Even in a bad Republican year (like last year), this has been a Republican district. Winsome Earle-Sears won the 5th with 53.7% of the vote even as she got shellacked statewide. To win, Perriello will need almost a perfect set of circumstances: a big Democratic turnout and a low Republican one. So far, that appears to be what’s happening.
In the past two congressional elections, the only localities in the 5th that Democrats have been able to win have been Albemarle County, Charlottesville and Danville. The problem for Democrats has been that those three localities only account for one-quarter of the vote in the district. Still, that’s where a Democratic candidate has to start, and so far the early voting is up in all three places — up 26.2% in Albemarle, up 48.3% in Charlottesville, up 16.4% in Danville. Between them, that accounts for 1,832 “extra” votes. Will that be enough (assuming these trends continue)? That’s the essential question, and we can’t answer it here.
More trends: Early voting is up 31.1% in Nelson County, which swings back and forth. It’s also up 41.2% in Lynchburg — that’s 706 “additional” votes. Lynchburg generally votes Republican but has gone Democratic on occasion. To win districtwide, Perriello needs Lynchburg. Is this a sign that he’s getting it? We don’t know yet, but something is happening in the Hill City. Maybe this uptick is because of a free-for-all city council race where there are two rival slates of Republicans in addition to the Democrats. Or maybe it’s something else. We’ll know in November. All we know now is that the early vote is up here by an eye-popping amount.
Here’s what’s also eye-popping: The early vote is down in all the Republican-voting parts of the 5th District. That should worry McGuire more than the increase in the Democratic vote. In his home county, Goochland County, the early vote is down 32.4%. That’s 787 fewer votes than last year this time. Next door in Powhatan County, another bright red county, the early vote is down 31.2%. That’s 621 fewer votes than last year this time.
Given the political terrain in this district, Perriello could do everything right and still lose. State Navigate sees a Democratic shift here of 4.7 percentage points in the Democrats’ direction, which doesn’t seem enough. However, it’s not out of the question that Perriello could pull this off under the right circumstances — and those circumstances involve precisely the kind of early voting trends we’re now seeing.
Both candidates face challenges. Perriello has to deal with voters who don’t like Democrats: 57% of the voters surveyed in that district view his party unfavorably, and only 43% want Democrats to control the House. However, McGuire has to carry the anchor weight of an unpopular Trump. Even in this Republican district, 53% disapprove of Trump.
Interestingly, a PAC with a Republican-sounding name — Virginia Patriot PAC — has put up pro-Perriello billboards in the district, including this one just outside Danville:
Another burden for McGuire: 49% of those surveyed say the cost of living is the top issue. That’s a higher percentage than in the 1st District, where 42% say that.
These numbers help explain some of the dynamics in this race: McGuire focusing on “crazy” Democrats, Perriello focusing on the economy without mentioning his party affiliation.
Perriello also recently picked up an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Why is she getting involved in this race? That’s a question I explore in today’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here:
6th District: No sign of a blue wave west of the Blue Ridge
Democrat Beth Macy has raised more money than Republican incumbent Ben Cline and is running the most aggressive challenge he’s ever faced. Despite that, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hasn’t targeted the 6th District, a district that always won by Republicans with north of 60% of the vote — and which even Earle-Sears won with 58.6% last year.
Unlike in the 1st, 2nd and 5th districts, there is nothing in the early voting trends to suggest we’re seeing a Democratic trend here. If there were such a trend, we’d expect to see early voting up in the handful of Democratic localities in this district, mostly notably Roanoke, which has the second-highest number of voters in the district. But we’re not. Early voting in Roanoke is down 19.2% from last year (that’s 711 votes) even though there’s also a city council race going on. (Not sure who to vote for in that seven-candidate affair? Take our quiz; it will ask where you stand on certain issues and then show which council candidates are closest to your views.)
To be sure, early voting is down almost everywhere in the district, although not by the same kind of alarm bell percentages we saw in the 1st. In terms of raw numbers, early voting is down by more voters in Roanoke than it is in the Republican-voting localities around it. Early voting is actually up in two localities that normally deliver solid Republican majorities: Page County and Rockbridge County. Are those Democrats voting in higher numbers there or Republicans? We don’t know. All we know is that we’re not seeing the kinds of trends we are in the 2nd and 5th where Democratic localities are up, and Republican localities are down. If there’s a blue wave west of the Blue Ridge, it’s taking place in such a subsurface way that the early voting trends don’t register it.
State Navigate sees the early voting in the 6th shifting toward Democrats by 4.4 percentage points, hardly enough to make a difference given the Republican nature of the district. That’s also the smallest leftward shift of any congressional district in Virginia except one — the 8th District in Northern Virginia, which is already the state’s most Democratic district, so the party may simply have maxed out there.
9th District: Dickenson County sees an increase in early voting
This is the most Republican congressional district in the state. If there were any kind of Democratic trend, we’d see it first in Martinsville, Montgomery County and Radford, but early voting is down in all three localities. Curiously, it’s up in Dickenson County. That might be due to a contested race for commonwealth’s attorney, not any unique interest in the congressional race. Overall, State Navigate sees a shift in early voting of 8.6 percentage points toward Democrats. That’s the biggest shift in the state, but the site still forecasts that Republicans will win the early voting overall by double-digit margins.
4th District: Not much motivation here, either
There’s one other congressional district where early voting is particularly low. That’s the 4th District, now held by Democratic Jennifer McClellan. The political reality is that this isn’t considered a competitive district, so voters here on either side may not feel particularly compelled to go to the polls — at least not yet. That shouldn’t particularly concern Democrats, although the low early voting is likely leaving “yes” votes for the three constitutional amendments on the table.
Interestingly, the 3rd District held by Democrat Bobby Scott isn’t historically competitive, either, but Norfolk has the biggest uptick in early voting of any locality in the state — up 57.2%. There are some local races for city council and school board to help drive that.
Regardless of which side you’re on, there are lots of early voting days left. You can find details on early voting, as well as a list of who’s on your ballot and where they stand (if they responded to our questionnaire), in our Voter Guide. We’ll revisit these trends again in the weeks ahead. And, of course, we always have more political news each week in West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here:
