The election begins … today.
Four states today begin early voting in the congressional midterms. Virginia is one of them. Lest you think the long early voting period is a Democratic innovation — well, in Virginia it is. But those other three states include bright red Idaho and South Dakota, plus blue Minnesota (blue politically and not just because of the cold winters).
Virginia has a low-key Senate race, 11 different congressional races (some more competitive than others), referendums on three important constitutional amendments, a few local referendums here or there, and lots of local offices. Those include 148 candidates for school boards and 1,112 candidates for other local posts. That may seem a lot but in some small towns there aren’t enough candidates; many have more seats available than there are candidates on the ballot. Meanwhile, Chesapeake has 16 candidates on the ballot seeking five seats on the city council, which wins whatever prize there is for the most people on the ballot.
We know these numbers because we had to input them all into our Voter Guide, which has separate pages for every county and city in Virginia. We also sent out questionnaires to the candidates. If they’ve responded, you can find their answers on the Voter Guide as well.
Here’s an overview of what’s on the ballot — and what’s at stake.
Congress: Which party will control the House and Senate?
Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Midterms often aren’t kind to the president’s party so this year begins with Republicans on the defensive. President Donald Trump’s anemic approval ratings aren’t doing Republicans any favors. Nationally, the story will be whether Democrats are able to win control of either chamber, or both of them.
To analyze Virginia’s role in the national picture, let’s begin on the eastern side of the state. Virginia’s current congressional delegation is six Democrats, five Republicans. Democrats have officially targeted three of those Republican seats as flippable.
The most contested House seat in Virginia is almost always the 2nd District in Hampton Roads and this year seems no different. Since 2000, that district — which has changed shape over the years with redistricting — has had seven different House members as the seat has flipped back and forth. It’s currently held by Republican Jen Kiggans, who faces a rematch with Democrat Elaine Luria, who served one term before Kiggans ousted her in 2022 — the Joe Biden midterms. The current redistricting map shaped the 2nd somewhat more Republican than before but Kiggans has won only slim victories before: 51.6% and 50.7%. If there is a Democratic tide this year, the 2nd is where it will hit first in Virginia. This race will be one of the most closely watched in the nation.
Democrats have also targeted Republican incumbents Rob Wittman in the 1st District and John McGuire in the 5th. On the surface, both would appear to be tough climbs for Democrats. In the past two elections in the current district, Wittman has won 56% of the vote. The key for Democrat Shannon Taylor will be how well she does in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico County and Chesterfield County, which together account for just under 44% of the registered voters in the district. This is a district where demographic change could make a difference. The key for Wittman will be to run up the score (and the turnout) in the rural parts of the district.
The 5th District presents a different challenge for Democrats. It’s largely rural and Democrats have had a hard time finding votes outside Charlottesville and Albemarle County. Tom Perriello, who represented a different version of the 5th for one term after the 2008 election, has experience running in those rural counties, though. He also exudes energy and, most notably, has a 3-to-1 cash advantage over McGuire in this summer’s campaign finance reports. Can he use that to crank up the Democratic turnout in ways that McGuire can’t do on the Republican side? We’ll see. McGuire is the most Trump-aligned House member in the Virginia delegation and has been bringing in a parade of Trump officials to help boost his candidacy in what would normally be considered a Republican district.
Democrats have not targeted the 6th District race; it’s historically been the state’s second-most Republican district, but Roanoke author Beth Macy has managed to outraise incumbent Ben Cline. Whether that translates into electoral success, we’ll see. Her problem is that every Democratic stronghold in the district — Roanoke, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Harrisonburg and Winchester — is surrounded by Republican-voting counties with more voters. Macy, in a fiery speech at the annual Buena Vista Labor Day festivities, blasted Cline for “kissing the king’s ring” — meaning Trump. The catch is that a large majority of 6th District voters have backed Trump; how many of those are now willing to reconsider?
Virginia’s Senate race is not on the national radar, as Democrat Mark Warner seeks his fourth, and what he says will be his final, term.
Three proposed constitutional amendments could draw the most attention
Virginia doesn’t have much history with high-profile referendums, although this spring’s redistricting amendment (later invalidated by the Virginia Supreme Court) was a definite exception. Most amendments to the state constitution tend to be technical in nature. These three are not. The first would guarantee the right to terminate a pregnancy and other reproductive health matters, the second would guarantee the right to a same-sex marriage, the third would automatically restore civil rights to felons who have served their time. (You can read more about the details, including the actual language of each amendment, in our Voter Guide.)
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, voters in 10 states have approved constitutional amendments to guarantee a state right to an abortion. That’s the context in which this amendment now comes before voters.
The amendment on same-sex marriage is also framed with the U.S. Supreme Court in mind — specifically the concern some have that the court will someday reverse its 2015 decision that guarantees a right to a same-sex marriage. In 2006, Virginians by a margin of 57.1% to 42.9% approved a constitutional amendment to ban such marriage. The U.S. Supreme Court decision rendered that language moot, but it remains in the Virginia constitution — and would come back into force if the high court ever reversed itself. This amendment is intended to remove that language and instead insert language asserting a state right to a same-sex marriage. In electoral terms, this will be a fascinating measure of how much public opinion has changed over two decades.
The third amendment, on restoration of rights, would not be controversial elsewhere. There are 38 states where rights are already automatically restored to convicted felons at a certain point and two others where rights are never taken away. Of the others, Virginia has one of the most restrictive processes, where the governor must approve each application for restoration of rights. This amendment would make that automatic.
In many parts of the state that don’t have competitive congressional races, these amendments are likely to be the center of attention — be that in solid Democratic communities or solid Republican ones.
47 localities will vote on sales taxes for schools
In one of Virginia’s many oddities, nine localities have had the power to raise the local sales tax by 1% to generate revenue for school construction and maintenance. A new Virginia law now gives every locality the power to hold such a referendum; this year 47 places are doing so.
Politically, the fascinating part is that almost all of these are Republican-voting localities. These votes will test their aversion to taxes. I can only count nine of those 47 localities that could be considered reliably Democratic (Albemarle County, Charlottesville, Chesterfield County, Emporia, Greensville County Norfolk, Portsmouth, Richmond, Winchester), with two others that might be classified as swing areas (Nelson County and Stafford County). That leaves 36 others in the Republican camp.
Those are the politics. The economics are equally fascinating. This list includes some of the poorest localities in the state — only three places have a lower median household income than Covington.
That means this is a case of asking some of the poorest localities in the state to tax themselves.
Seven places have other issues on the ballot
The two most controversial local referendums are likely to be in Amherst County and Pulaski County, where voters will be asked to approve off-track betting parlors — the Rosie’s Gaming Emporiums. This will be the second try in Amherst. Five years ago, the county voted Rosie’s down 54.1% to 45.9%. Supporters are hoping that higher tax bills, and controversy over a proposed data center, will make voters more amenable to the revenue that off-track betting might bring.
Arlington County voters will have the longest ballot in the state: Besides the three constitutional amendments, voters there are being asked to approve five different bond issues, so that’s eight ballot questions in all, plus the actual candidates on the ballot.
Roanoke votes indirectly face questions on city finances
Roanoke politics tends to go in cycles. A quarter-century ago, it was quite contentious, with lots of turnover on the city council, as the city struggled to set a consistent direction. Once it finally did so, council elections were often somnolent and predictable. Now they seem back to their former state. One incumbent, Peter Volosin, has already lost, in the Democratic primary. With three seats available, and just one incumbent on the ballot, Roanoke is guaranteed to get at least two new faces on the council — and could get three. Or maybe it could get some familiar ones. Former Mayor David Bowers and former council member Stephanie Moon are both running again as independents. With seven candidates on the ballot (three Democrats, one Republican, three independents), city voters do not lack for choices.
The issue that has driven much of the contention in the city has been its finances. A lot of the issues before the council — how to finance the school system, how to maintain the aging Berglund Center, whether to pursue a casino — come back to that.
All seven candidates have responded to Cardinal’s Voter Guide questionnaire; see their answers here.
Lynchburg, Martinsville voters elect council members after internal controversies
Every election is an opportunity for voters to either affirm their government’s current direction or set a new one. It will be particularly interesting to see what voters in Lynchburg and Martinsville choose. The former has a 6-1 Republican council that’s been riven by a sharp divide between two rival factions. This spring’s nominating process did not resolve the matter. The state Republican Party threw out the results, citing a faulty process, and told all the Republican candidates they could run as independents. That means there are five Republican candidates (officially filed as independents) who are seeking three seats. The complication is that there are also three Democratic candidates, plus an actual independent. The split Republican field would seem to give an advantage to the Democrats, who could regain a majority on the council if they sweep.
Eight of the nine Lynchburg candidates have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire. Only the indepdent Ely Ribinni, running under the name “Shawn Hunter,” hasn’t responed. Find the other answers here.
In Martinsville, Mayor L.C. Jones was temporarily removed from office earlier this year, then restored to his position, after a failed recall attempt. Meanwhile, there’s a special prosecutor who is looking into the actions of the now-fired city manager. Four years ago, Jones led the balloting for mayor. Do Martinsville voters think he was unfairly targeted or that he was part of the problem? We’ll find out in the election results.
Three of the five Martinsville candidates have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire. The two who haven’t are Jones and Tina Jenkins. Find the answers from the other candidates here.
Radford voters go to the polls amid fiscal stress
Earlier this year, the Virginia Auditor of Public Accounts designated Radford as being in “fiscal distress.” The basic problem: The city once made a lot of money selling electricity through its own power utility. With the closure of the Radford Foundry in 2013, the city lost its biggest customer. In recent years, Radford has struggled to pay its bills on time (or at all). In a bid to right its finances, the city has now approved tax increases three years in a row. Whoever wins the two council seats available will have some tough choices to make.
Three of the five council candidates have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire. Only Charlie Meeks and Chad McClannahan have not. See how the other candidates answered here.
Other races in other places
This isn’t the typical year for the election of constitutional officers — the term for certain courthouse officials who are required by the state constitution — but we have some anyway, mostly special elections brought on by retirements or deaths.
Galax, Grayson County, Hanover County, Middlesex County and Montgomery County elect a new sheriff. The Middlesex election is a four-way contest. Dickenson County and Mathews County have contested races for commonwealth’s attorney. (The two Montgomery sheriff candidates have both responded to our Voter Guide; find their answers here.)
Voters in Manassas, Manassas Park and part of Prince William County will be electing a new member of the House of Delegates following the resignation of Del. Michelle Maldonado, D-Prince William County.
This year’s election also brings some oddities.
In Lexington, there’s a candidate running for two offices at the same time. David Sigler was running for reelection to the city council when the mayor died. Sigel was appointed interim mayor and now is seeking that post, although he remains on the ballot for the council. If he wins both, he’ll resign the council seat because you can’t hold two offices at once.
Small towns often have trouble finding enough candidates to run. It’s not unusual to find towns — such as Round Hill in Loudoun County — where there’s a special election for one seat but no candidates on the ballot. However, in at least two towns the entire town council will be elected this fall but there’s not a single candidate on the ballot. In Hillsboro in Loudoun County, it’s apparently tradition for candidates not to put their names on the ballot and instead rely on write-ins. In Iron Gate in Alleghany County, the issue is disinterest, as explained in this story we published earlier this week. Iron Gate will be holding a referendum to reduce the number of council members from six to four but the larger question being debated in the town is whether Iron Gate should be a town at all.
Meanwhile, Clinchport in Scott County, which two years ago didn’t have anyone on the ballot, has an actual race: Six candidates are seeking five seats.
Notable candidates
Anne Holton, who can be identified many ways — former judge, former secretary of education, former interim president of George Mason University, former Virginia first lady — is running for a school board seat in Richmond.
Former Del. Phil Hamilton, who served time on bribery and extortion convictions, is running for mayor of Newport News. He does not shy away from this in the biography he supplied for our Voter Guide: “I also served 8 years in a Federal prison and have had my rights to vote, served on a jury, and hold public office restored effective September 3, 2021 by Governor Ralph Northam.” (Two of the three candidates for mayor of Newport here have responded to the Voter Guide; find their answers here.)
Four years ago, Maeve McCulloch became one of the youngest office-holders in the state when, at 18, she was appointed to the Ridgeway Town Council. She was elected to a full term in the Henry County town that November and now is running for reelection. She seems almost certain to win; there are only three candidates on the ballot for six seats.
The 7th Congressional District has three independent candidates. Two of them are on the ballot for strategic reasons: longtime anti-abortion activist Terry Randall and his colleague, Joshua Ertle. The FXBG Advance out of Fredericksburg reports that their purpose is to take advantage of federal broadcasting rules that require campaign ads be run unedited. That report says independent Joan Andrews Bell in the 4th District is part of the same effort. “Terry has used this before,” the Advance reports. “Running for president on the Constitution Party line in 2024, he got graphic anti-abortion ads aired unedited on ABC — the network said on air that it was legally required to run them. Filing for Congress in Virginia’s 7th District gives Terry, and running mate Ertle, the same access here, timed deliberately to Virginia’s Amendment 1 abortion-rights referendum on this November’s ballot.”
One of my favorite quotes comes from baseball Hall of Famer Lou Boudreau, who once said: “On Opening Day, the world is all future and no past” — meaning everyone starts the season with a blank slate. In politics, as in sports, we talk about favorites. Still, the game must be played — and the election must be held. Until today, everyone on this year’s ballot was tied at zero. As you read these words, somebody is already ahead and somebody is already behind.
We have even more politics in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Friday afternoons. Among the highlights this week: The 2029 governor’s race is already underway and a look at the campaign fundraising for and against the three constitutional amendments on the ballot. Sign up here:
