Most school systems across Virginia will see their enrollments decline over the next five years, as declining birth rates — and families moving out of state — continue to reshape the state’s demographics.
The biggest percentage decreases will come across Southwest and Southside, but the biggest drops in terms of actual number of students will be in Fairfax County. More than one-quarter of the projected statewide enrollment decline will come from Fairfax County, which is currently losing population for the first time since the 1820s.
All this comes from the latest projections of public school enrollment from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. (For more discussion of these numbers, see the center’s analysis.) While these numbers are new, the trends are not — the nation’s birth rate has been declining almost every year since 1958, and Virginia has seen more people moving out than moving in since 2013.
What’s happened more recently is that many localities in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the state’s two biggest growth engines, are now losing population, and new migration data shows that while out-migration is slowing, those leaving tend to be families with children. All that means that school enrollment will decline, the Weldon Cooper Center numbers show. These projections will put more pressure on Virginia to change its school funding formula, which currently penalizes those with falling enrollment. They also have implications beyond K-12 education.
“The decline in enrollment statewide is also a signal of things to come for colleges and the workforce later this decade,” said demographer Hamilton Lombard. “Currently, there are nearly as many Virginians turning 65 as 18. Virginia’s population under age 10 is 15 percent smaller than those in their 20s which will likely add pressure to both college and the labor force in the future.”
All across our society, we’re seeing the effects of a declining birth rate — this is why we have a worker shortage in some industries, this is why Lynchburg is looking at closing schools, this is why colleges are scrambling to come up with ways to attract students (from adding football at Roanoke College to competitive cheerleading at Randolph College). Add in Virginia’s net out-migration, and that’s part of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s pitch for reducing income tax rates — he believes that will reverse those migration trends.
These latest projections add updated numbers to the demographics driving these trends.
Virginia public school enrollment is projected to drop 2.9%, a faster rate than previously projected
Before the pandemic, Virginia’s public school enrollment had been projected to drop due to declining birth rate. Then the pandemic happened, and some students departed the public school system for private schools or home schools. Now public school enrollment is projected to drop at a faster rate. From the current school year of 2023-2024 to 2028-2029, Virginia’s public school enrollment is projected to drop 2.9% — from 1,219,485 to 1,184,449.
These numbers account for a certain number of students continuing to opt out of the public school system for private schools or home schools, but if those numbers increased, then public school enrollment would decline further. “We worked quite hard to avoid projecting more students switching to private education as we saw during the pandemic, instead we are projecting a small return of students back to public school but the large majority who left we are expecting to stay where they are,” Lombard said. “Given how much the education world has changed since 2020 with the expansion of virtual K-12 education and of private schools there is certainly uncertainty there. There are still over 40,000 fewer students in Virginia’s public schools than we would have expected based on pre-pandemic trends, the shift in 2020 for now, appears to be a one-off shock that permanently reduced the share of children attending public school. Before the pandemic over 90 percent of children born in Virginia attended public Kindergarten, last fall it was closer to 85 percent.”
There’s been particular growth in home schooling in the western part of the state. “In the census region that includes Roanoke County, Franklin, Craig, Botetourt and Alleghany, the share of children educated at home or in a private school rose from 9 percent in 2019 to 19 percent in 2022,” Lombard said. That’s not the highest percentage of students being privately educated in the state — that distinction belongs to the McLean section of Fairfax County at 23% — but it is one of the largest percentage increases in the state. The loss of students to private schools and home schools has been a particular concern in Franklin County, which now faces such a big reduction in state funding that some have raised the prospect of closing some schools.
The biggest percentage decreases are in aging, rural localities that are losing population
Buchanan County in Southwest Virginia and Northampton County on the Eastern Shore are on opposite sides of the state, but they are projected to lose students at the same rate — both 16%, the highest in the state.
Patrick County is projected for a 15% loss. Dickenson County, Essex County and Hopewell are each looking at a projected 14% decrease in enrollment.
While the size of the decline may be a surprise, the list of localities shouldn’t be. All these are aging communities that have seen their populations shrink. Declining enrollment is one of the reasons behind Buchanan County consolidating its high schools. That may be good for efficiency but that’s a hard blow to communities that will lose a school — and let’s not forget the geographical reality of Buchanan County. It’s going to be a long way over multiple mountains for some students to get to school.
These big decreases in aging, rural localities that are losing population shouldn’t be a surprise, but this might be.
Virtually every locality in Northern Virginia is projected to lose enrollment
This is such a paradigm shift that it’s still hard to comprehend. Fairfax County hasn’t shown a population loss since the 1830 census, but the latest census projections show the county is now losing people — not just simply net out-migration but an outright population decline. That’s why Fairfax County accounts for the single biggest projected enrollment decrease. Within five years, Fairfax County is projected to have 5% fewer students — 9,235. Numerically, that’s the single biggest decrease in the state, more than all the losses in Southwest Virginia put together.
Other localities in Northern Virginia are still gaining population, but even they are projected to lose enrollment.
Loudoun County has opened 13 new high schools since 2000, with one of them (Lightbridge) designed to reduce overcrowding at a school that just opened in 2012 (John Champe). Now Loudoun is projected to lose 4% of its student body — 2,964 students — even as the county’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate than in the past.
Prince William County has opened six new high schools since 2000. It’s now projected to lose 3% of its enrollment — 2,659 students — by 2028. For context: That’s more students disappearing from either Loudoun or Prince William schools than some rural localities have in their entire system. Fairfax’s decline is the equivalent of the entire school system of Montgomery County going away.
The projected enrollment declines in Northern Virginia are part of a bigger picture:
Even many localities that are gaining population are projected to lose students
This is where our demographic trends are most apparent. This map above shows localities that are gaining population but are projected to have enrollment declines. This is a combination of declining birth rates, and in-migration of new residents who either don’t have children or aren’t having many.
On the one hand, this means population growth doesn’t necessarily translate into demand for more schools, something that used to go hand-in-hand with population growth. On the other hand, those are two very different trends — growing population, declining enrollment — suddenly happening in the same place.
Five places (Botetourt County, Falls Church, Giles County, Radford, Surry County) have a very different challenge — declining population but growing school enrollment. The population estimates are from last year, so it’s possible that new ones that are due out soon will show different population trends in some of those places. Still, that’s perhaps the most difficult challenge a locality can face — fewer people to pay taxes to support the schools but more students to pay for.
The localities with the most enrollment growth are between the Richmond metro and Northern Virginia.
This tracks with where the state’s population growth is now concentrated. In these localities, we’re seeing both population growth and enrollment growth, the traditional demographic twosome. Still, with declining birth rates, we’re generally seeing overall populations growing faster than we’re seeing school enrollments grow. Think of it this way: In generations past, a couple moving in might have brought four kids, then two — now it’s often just one.
The one exception is New Kent County just east of Richmond. New Kent has been logging 8.1% population growth but is now projected for a 17% increase in student enrollment over the next five years, the second biggest percentage increase in the state. That translates into 580 more students, which may not sound like much in some places, but sure is in a county of New Kent’s size (just shy of 25,000).
Chesterfield County is projected to see the biggest enrollment increase
On a numerical basis, Chesterfield County is projected to add more new students than any other locality in the state: 3,469, an increase of 5%.
That growth is why Chesterfield has opened 10 new schools since 2018. Seven more schools are on the way.
This is a vivid example of the unequal growth taking place across the state. Chesterfield is gaining about the same number of students that Norfolk is losing.
Stafford County is projected to see the second biggest enrollment increase
Projected enrollment increases for localities between the Richmond suburbs and Northern Virginia were generally in the 3% to 6% range. For Stafford County, that 6% equates to 1,795 extra students. For comparison purposes, that’s more additional students than are currently in the entire school systems in some smaller counties.
Highland County is projected to see the biggest percentage increase
While most of the enrollment growth is in that corridor between the Richmond metro and Northern Virginia, we do have some outliers. Appomattox County is one; it’s seeing growth pushing out from Lynchburg — enough to see a likely 5% increase in enrollment. The most interesting, though, might be Highland County, the state’s least-populated county. Because it’s so small, it’s easy to get a big percentage increase. Nonetheless, we do see a trend. Highland, which has been losing population pretty consistently since 1940, is now gaining population again, according to estimates that came out last year. Now we’re seeing that translate into a projected 27% increase in school enrollment. For tiny Highland, that’s 52 extra students — from 196 now to 248 in five years. However, in a place where last year’s graduating class was just 18, and even that was large, this projected increase is a big deal. This also suggests that someday the county may no longer have trouble finding teenage girls eligible to be Maple Queen, as it did last year.
Bath County next door is projected to pick up 38 new students, an increase of 8%. It does appear that those two counties are seeing some very new population trends.
These numbers aren’t good for Lynchburg and Franklin County
At some level, these numbers aren’t good for any locality that’s projected to see a decline in enrollment — that signals a smaller workforce in the years ahead. However, I call attention to these two localities because school closings have been an issue in both. The Lynchburg City School Board last year voted to close at least one, maybe two, schools in 2025 because of declining enrollment. Here’s more evidence of that decline: Lynchburg is projected to lose 577 more students, a drop of 8%.
Franklin County school officials were astonished recently to learn that their state funding is being reduced by $3.7 million, partly because of declining enrollment, partly because development around Smith Mountain Lake has driven up property values so much that the state formula says Franklin County is affluent enough to pay more of its own money for schools. Franklin County is projected to see a drop of 416 students — 7%.
These numbers aren’t good for Danville and Pittsylvania County, either.
Danville is looking at a decrease of 544 students — a 10% decline. Pittsylvania is projected to see a decrease of 333 students — a 4% decline. For a part of the state that’s trying to woo a major employer to the Southern Virginia Megasite, these are not helpful numbers because they tell prospects the region will have a shrinking labor pool, not a growing one. This is one of the demographic factors that drove Pittsylvania County last year to approve a major housing development, over loud opposition from neighbors. It’s easy to oppose a rezoning; the bigger question is how will Danville and Pittsylvania ensure a labor force that’s growing enough to be attractive to some mega-employer? That requires more people moving in, and they’ll need places to live.
The projections underscore rival policy points
For any locality that’s losing enrollment, especially in rural areas, this points to the need to attract more young adults. That’s not new, and not controversial — at least not until it involves a rezoning for a new apartment complex or subdivision. For Youngkin, these projections underscore the need to reverse the state’s out-migration. That’s not particularly controversial, either, although one of his proposed solutions is: reducing the state’s income tax (and raising the sales tax). Youngkin is the first governor I’ve heard talk so much about out-migration; I’ll be curious if the Democratic candidates who want to succeed him will have anything to say on that.
The main driver here, though, is a declining birth rate. Other countries — notably Japan and South Korea — have started to openly worry about their low birth rates. Americans have been more skittish about that debate, because it ultimately comes down to encouraging women to have more babies — and potentially leave the workforce, at least for a while. Democrats and Republicans have started to advance different ideas on how to do this — Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia, has been vocal about promoting more child care. Youngkin has talked up child care, too, although I’ve seen some Republicans push back on what they see as more government subsidies.
Demographers point out that there’s no practical way to raise the birth rate enough to solve some of these problems — and that even if we did, it would take about two decades or so before that started to make a difference in the labor force. The immediate solution is to promote more immigration. That’s what Canada has done, quite aggressively. In the United States, though, immigration has gotten caught up in arguments about border security, and occasionally some xenophobia. We have yet to have a serious national discussion about why we’re really having worker shortages, and how we intend to address that shortage of workers. The upcoming presidential campaign doesn’t promise to be an enlightening venue for that conversation.
However, here in Virginia we do have these enrollment projections. Like it or not, we’ll see these numbers forcing a lot of policy debates, from your local school board all the way to Richmond.