For more information on the June 18 primaries, see our 2024 voter guide.
With early voting in the June 18 primary elections underway since last week, state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland County, is touting internal polling that shows him with a comfortable 14-point lead over Rep. Bob Good, R-Campbell County, in the heated GOP primary in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.
If the election were held today, about 45% of Republican voters said that they would back McGuire, who has mounted a vicious intraparty challenge against Good, the incumbent, according to the survey by national GOP pollster Battleground Connect, which was conducted on behalf of and provided by McGuire’s campaign. The new data shows a 21-point increase compared to the previous poll released in December.
The new data shows that now 31% of Republicans in the district would vote for Good, compared to 46% last year, with 24% remaining undecided. It currently is the only publicly available poll for this nomination contest.
McGuire’s favorability rating has also increased while Good’s has dropped. About 38% of the polled GOP voters have a favorable opinion of the state senator — a 25-point hike since the last poll — with 50% saying they had no opinion on the candidate. McGuire slightly increased his unfavorability rating from 8% to 12%.
In contrast, 39% of Republican voters view Good favorably, which is down from 48% in December. However, the incumbent’s unfavorability rating has since grown from 24% to 39% (with 22% having no opinion).
“The results of this survey show what we already know — people are demanding better than Good,” McGuire campaign spokesman Riley Ploch said in an email. “Bob Good has alienated almost every segment of the party, not the least of which is the Trump base, by backstabbing President Trump and refusing to support him at the time of these unconstitutional, political indictments.”
The people of the 5th District are ready for a new direction and a new leader that will stand with President Trump in passing an America First agenda, will stand with the nation’s only ally in the Middle East, Israel, and will stand up for the people, Ploch added. “People are clearly rallying around John McGuire because they know he is that leader.”
But Good’s campaign remains unfazed by the polling data provided by McGuire’s campaign.
“The only poll that matters is the final count on Election Day. We feel confident in our ground game and in knowing that the people of our district support Congressman Good,” Diana Shores, Good’s campaign spokeswoman, said in an email Tuesday.
“They reject the radical ideas of our opponent who sponsored legislation such as the ERA [Equal Rights Amendment] that would have codified abortion on demand and allowed boys in the girls locker room. Our door to door voter surveys show overwhelming support for the work that Congressman Good is doing to represent them in Washington. This is their seat.”
Since McGuire announced his challenge just days after winning the election in Virginia’s newly created 10th state Senate District in November, both candidates have been engaged in a viciously fought primary battle for their party’s nomination. McGuire has repeatedly accused the incumbent of “hating Trump,” being a “Never-Trumper” and a “RINO” — a derogatory moniker for “Republican In Name Only” — who is working to help Democrats.
Good, who is seeking a third term in Congress, had endorsed Ron DeSantis as the GOP’s presidential nominee in May 2023, but immediately pivoted to supporting Trump when the Florida governor abruptly ended his campaign in January.
But Good’s endorsement of Trump may have come too late in a district that the former president won with 53% in both 2016 and 2020.
Just days before the Republican from Campbell County flipped his endorsement, Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump adviser who was tapped as campaign manager earlier this year, put the congressman on notice. “Bob Good won’t be electable when we get done with him,” LaCivita said in a text message.
And with few policy differences between the two candidates, the highly contentious primary battle has mostly come down to which candidate is Trump’s most loyal supporter.
According to the Battleground Connect poll, Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans in the 5th District remains high, at 79%; just 13% of the surveyed GOP voters view him unfavorably.
David Richards, a political analyst and chair of the political science program at the University of Lynchburg, said that the latest polling data is “both not surprising and kind of hard to believe” at the same time.
“Incumbents are usually bulletproof, especially against challenges from within their party. McGuire seemed to be a minor annoyance when he announced, but recently more than a few yard signs have appeared, and chatter has increased around his challenge, so I am not surprised to see this in this new poll,” Richards said.
While Trump continues to have a stranglehold on the GOP and, indirectly, on the Republican primary in the 5th District, the more important factor might be that Good never really invested much in his district, Richards said.
“He got to Washington, D.C., in 2021 and immediately made a national name for himself, eventually chairing the Freedom Caucus. He also was a major player in the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Meanwhile, his district has felt a little neglected.”
Rural Virginia still appreciates a retail politician, one who is seen around the district and “gets their name in local papers, not just national news outlets,” Richards added.
“I still would not count Good out at this point, but I think that at the very best, even if he emerges as the nominee, he will be badly wounded. Even a few months ago I would have said McGuire was just making noise, but clearly that is no longer the case. June 18th will be a crucial day for Good’s political future.”
The Battleground Connect poll was conducted April 30 through May 2 among 504 likely 2024 Republican primary election voters using both landlines and cellphones. The margin of error was +/-4.4%, with a 95% level of confidence.
