Virginia Tech was blanketed by light snow accumulation last year on Nov. 10. Some snow showers may reach the New River Valley by Friday evening or early Saturday, but Hokies fans arriving for Saturday night's game against Stanford probably won't see a scene similar to this. Photo by Kevin Myatt.
Virginia Tech was blanketed by light snow accumulation last year on Nov. 10. Some snow showers may reach the New River Valley by Friday evening or early Saturday, but Hokies fans arriving for Saturday night's game against Stanford probably won't see a scene similar to this. Photo by Kevin Myatt.

Let’s get ready to bundle.

If your favorite high school team is in a state playoff game on Friday night, or you are a Wahoo or Hokie fan ready to see your team freeze out some Californians on Saturday (UVa hosts California at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Virginia Tech hosts Stanford at 7:30), you’d best be getting your most dependable cold weather gear out of the closet the next couple of days.

After another likely insufficient smattering of rain showers on Thursday once again more focused on areas west of the Blue Ridge rather than to the east that need rainfall most desperately, a windy cold front blows through on Friday, bringing an abrupt end to this week’s relative warmth.

Last week's U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show dryness over most of Virginia east of the Blue Ridge with moderate to extreme levels of drought in much of southern Virginia. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.
Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show dryness over most of Virginia east of the Blue Ridge with moderate to extreme levels of drought in much of southern Virginia. Courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center.

Temperatures will fall into the 30s quickly after dark both Friday and Saturday nights. With some intermittent sunshine, we might manage 40s to near 50 during the day on Saturday, but it will drop quickly with the setting sun, possibly into the upper 20s by the fourth quarter of Tech’s game in Blacksburg.

Yes, there will probably be at least some snow behind that front, mainly higher elevations west of Interstate 77 and near the West Virginia state line Friday through early Saturday, as northwest winds lift moisture over the mountains. These are the typical upslope snow showers that will develop in our mountains behind almost every cold front now to April.

Despite a little excitement from a few forecast model runs early in the week, this will not be any kind of widespread significant snowfall, not even as much as happened a year and a day ago when our last snow season kicked off.

It will not be “Enter Snowman!” at Lane Stadium on Saturday night … though a brief flurry swirling in over Salt Pond and Brush mountains wouldn’t be entirely out of the question.

A small to medium chance of seeing at least 1 inch of snow through Saturday morning extends across a portion of Southwest Virginia and rakes Bath and Highland counties at the western edge of the state. Courtesy of Weather Prediction Center, NOAA.
A small to medium chance of seeing at least 1 inch of snow through Saturday morning extends across a portion of Southwest Virginia and rakes Bath and Highland counties at the western edge of the state. Courtesy of Weather Prediction Center, NOAA.

This storm system won’t deepen and wrap up fast enough for more than mountain snow showers, and as we’ve noted, will likely be moisture-starved in Virginia even for rainfall. Some Southwest Virginia areas west of I-77 might total ¼ to ½ inch of liquid with this, but likely less elsewhere.

Temperatures will recover quickly by next week, even shooting back above normal with some 60s and 70s highs again.

Though it will be time to bundle up this weekend, warmer than normal temperatures are expected to rebound before Thanksgiving, with some variance in forecast guidance about what might happen beyond the holiday. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.
Though it will be time to bundle up this weekend, warmer than normal temperatures are expected to rebound before Thanksgiving, with some variance in forecast guidance about what might happen beyond the holiday. Courtesy of Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.

The bigger question, though, is whether this weekend’s cold shot is a down payment on a larger and longer invasion of Arctic air that might show up around Thanksgiving and continue into early December. There are some hints of that, though also broad suggestions in the long-range that the typical December warmth of a strong El Niño will overspread much of the U.S.

Is the expected El Niño rain train ever going to start? That keep looks like something that might get going 10 or 15 days out, then it dries up. Every individual storm system seems to end up drier for us than it looks like it will be three to five days out.

Fog, clouds, and mountains paint the scene as seen from a hill in soutwest Roanoke County on Thursday, Nov. 4. Courtesy of Tom Austin.
Fog, clouds and mountains paint the scene as seen from a hill in southwest Roanoke County on Thursday, Nov. 4. Courtesy of Tom Austin.

Combining an early surge of Arctic air and the start of the subtropical moisture flow could make things mighty interesting from a wintry perspective mighty early.

Which brings us to the snowfall prediction contest — and a reminder that anything that falls in November doesn’t count toward any location’s seasonal numbers in the contest.

Kevin Myatt has written about Southwest and Southside Virginia weather for the past two decades, previously...