How much do you think it will snow this winter? Here’s your chance to weigh in and win something.
A few weeks ago, we discussed how the strong El Niño often trends our winters toward “feast or famine” snowfall totals — a whole lot or very little.
A week ago, we discussed the origins of the Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest and how it has evolved over the years.
Speaking of evolving, there are three significant changes from last year’s contest.
· Nine sites to choose from instead of 10.
· When the entry is received is no longer a final tiebreaker.
· The winning gift card is up to $30 and will be split if there is a tie.
The rules are below.
(1) Select THREE locations out of the nine listed at the bottom of this column. These are the same as last year’s contest, scattered across Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area, except that the Appomattox station is no longer reporting data, so it has been removed. The best two guesses will count for each entrant — the third only comes into play if there is a tie.
(2) Guess the total snowfall between Dec.1 and March 31 rounded to the nearest inch for each of those three locations. Snow that falls in November — including any that might accumulate this coming weekend — or after March 31 does not count toward the season total for the contest. (If you send me fractions or decimals I round them for you, with halves and .5 rounding up.)
(3) Email your guesses to weather@cardinalnews.org. Give me your name and where you live (general location — town, city, county or portion of a county — not specific address). It is OK to include more than one entry on the same email, for different family members (no age limits!), or a group, a school class, etc., just make sure names are clearly labeled for each set of picks.
(4) Deadline for receiving entries is 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, Nov. 29.
The winner of a $30 gift card for first place will be whoever misses the total snowfall from Dec. 1 to March 31 by the lowest number of total inches for the best two of their three picks, snow totals rounded to the nearest inch. If there is a tie, we’ll consider the third pick as a tiebreaker.
In a change from previous contests — If it’s still tied after the third picks are considered, we’ll split the gift card up among the winners — $15 for each if a two-way tie, $10 to each for a three-way tie, etc. I am no longer considering when the pick is sent in as the final tiebreaker. Multiple winners will get in on the bounty.
If we get 200 or more entries, it will be boosted to a $60 gift card for first place and $30 for second place. Those would be divided in the event of a tie, also.
But cash aside, public acknowledgement of your forecasting prowess in a Cardinal Weather column next April is, of course, the ultimate prize!
I will put my own skin in the game eventually, making a prediction for each location, probably posting around Thanksgiving. I had what I consider a very good winter last year, very close on many of the sites. I am much less confident about this one.
Below is the list of regional sites to choose from to predict snowfall totals, with some historical parameters to help guide your guesses. Remember, pick THREE to guess snow totals for, with the best two counting, unless the third is needed to break a tie.
Abingdon: 1 (1991-92) to 55 (1995-96); Average, 13.
Blacksburg: 1 (2022-23) to 67 (1995-96); Average, 21.
Burke’s Garden: 7 (1956-57) to 112 (1977-78); Average, 38.
Clintwood: 8 (2022-23) to 90 (1995-96); Average, 36.
Danville: 0 (multiple winters, most recently 2023-24) to 41 (1947-48); Average, 7.
Lynchburg: 0 (2019-20) to 57 (1995-96); Average, 15.
Martinsville: 0 (multiple winters, most recently 2023-24) to 46 (1959-60); Average, 9.
Roanoke: 0 (1918-19,1919-20, trace snowfall years, and 2022-23, rounded down from 0.4) to 63 (1959-60); Average, 18.
Wytheville: 1 (2022-23) to 59 (1986-97); Average, 19.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
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