The U.S. military runs on electricity, as do the defense communities and defense industries that support and supply it. The Pentagon, Naval Station Norfolk and Radford Army Ammunition Plant all depend on the same thing: reliable power. The commercial grid carrying that electricity was built in the 20th century, and it has not expanded to keep pace with demand. Now, it has little capacity left to spare.
That gap between what the grid can deliver and forecasted electricity demand inspired one of the first state-level studies in the country on whether the power grid can meet national defense requirements in peacetime or in times of conflict.
What the Numbers Show
In Unleashing Virginia, released in August 2026, a power flow analysis of Virginia revealed how little room this infrastructure has for defense energy growth.
We modeled four scenarios, and the pattern was consistent: the more defense demand grows, the more the grid needs and the faster costs for upgrades climb. A modest 20% increase in defense demand calls for tens of millions of dollars in upgrades. Push that to 50%, and Virginia would need to import power from other states. Double it, and the fix runs into the billions and requires rebuilding the high-voltage lines that carry power across state lines. Layer a summer heat emergency on top of even a modest defense increase, and the projects already planned aren’t enough to keep the lights reliably on.
As seen in the graphic below, the analysis found that Virginia’s transmission system can reliably absorb only a 5% to 10% increase in load at defense sites above today’s 3,500-megawatt (MW) baseline before it needs new infrastructure to meet electricity reliability standards. That is 175 to 350 MW of headroom, less than a single large data center.
Where Virginia Goes From Here
The report’s recommendations point toward a fix: factor Virginia’s defense needs into the grid planning processes that already exist. Update the state’s energy plans to account for defense grid risk in transmission decisions. Engage PJM (the regional grid operator) and utilities through frameworks such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Order 1920, which now requires long-term, scenario-based transmission planning. Pursue special designation for the lines that serve defense-critical loads in the national interest. Push utilities to forecast defense demand in their long-range resource plans the way they already do for data centers. Bring the Department of War to the table on shared infrastructure investment. These recommendations require intentional planning and sustained investment, and represent an opportunity for Virginia to lead.
The national security stakes
The report focuses on military installations in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. However, military missions rely on regional and national networks, and the lessons learned about aligning electricity planning with defense requirements are applicable across the commonwealth.
In the Lynchburg area, for example, companies such as BWX Technologies are important contributors to the defense industrial base. BWXT is the sole domestic manufacturer of naval nuclear reactor cores for the submarines and aircraft carriers based on the Virginia coast. In the New River Valley, the Radford Army Ammunition Plant manufactures propellants and explosives for artillery and naval weapons systems. In Danville, a Navy-backed training center is rebuilding the workforce pipeline for the shipbuilding industry in Hampton Roads.
Virginia’s military installations are critical to national defense. Their missions rely on a network of interconnected communities and industries. As both military and civilian electricity demand continues to surge across the country, Virginia has an opportunity to pioneer a new approach to aligning electricity investment with national defense.
Jonathon Monken and Leah Emanuel work as a team at Converge Strategies, a consulting firm that finds new ways to keep the lights on when bad things happen. Monken advises on strengthening energy resilience and mitigating risk based on more than 20 years of experience in national security, emergency management and critical infrastructure protection. Emanuel bridges the electricity industry and the national security enterprise to develop concepts that align transmission investment with national defense.
