Martinsville has had a tough time of it.
The city’s population has been declining since the 1970s.
Its dominant industries collapsed around 2000.
In more recent years, Martinsville has been roiled by controversies over whether the city should give up its charter, then the firing of the city manager that has resulted in a probe by a special prosecutor, and the temporary removal of the mayor.
The past year alone would seem to give Martinsville voters plenty to think about as they head to the polls this fall to elect two members of the city council. Here’s something else voters may want to keep in mind: Despite all of Martinsville’s troubles, the city is now seeing a demographic turnaround. It’s small, it’s tentative — but it is happening.
I have been mining a database of demographic details supplied by the Charlottesville-based demographer Hamilton Lombard to find trends that might be useful for voters to know. I’ve written about how 44% of the population growth in the Roanoke Valley is now concentrated in Salem while Roanoke ranks last in the valley for new arrivals. I’ve looked at how Lynchburg stands out for its fast-growing — and young — population. Today I’ll focus on Martinsville.
Martinsville has reversed five decades of population decline
The city’s population peaked in 1970 at 19,653. It’s been shrinking ever since then and stood at 13,485 in the 2020 census. That’s almost one-third of the population gone in a half century. That’s a decline on the same order as some counties in Virginia’s coalfields. Of course, they’ve all suffered the same fate: The pillars of the economy have crumbled.
Danville, just to the east, went through the same thing but has rebounded more dramatically (I’ll deal with Danville in a future column). I know Martinsville hates to be compared with Danville, but, objectively speaking, it’s worth asking why two similarly situated cities, less than an hour apart, have responded differently.
Whatever the answer to that question might be, Martinsville is now gaining population. That’s a pretty major headline. Since the 2020 census, Martinsville has grown by 371 people — an increase of 2.8%. That’s pretty puny compared to New Kent County east of Richmond, which has seen its population surge by 21.2%, but in the context of Southwest and Southside Virginia, Martinsville’s 2.8% growth is quite remarkable. It’s doing something that not even Roanoke is doing; Roanoke is shrinking slightly.
Martinsville’s population growth has not yet spread to neighboring Henry County, which has declined by 3.2% during the same time, making Martinsville’s population growth even more remarkable.
The data can’t tell us why this is happening, but it can tell us how this is happening. This is where things really get interesting.
Martinsville is growing younger while most communities are growing older
Years ago, Martinsville was an older city. In 1980, its median age was older than Virginia overall. And as society grew older, so did Martinsville — just not as fast as the rest of the state. By 2021, Martinsville’s median age matched Virginia overall. Today, it’s a little lower. Martinsville’s median age is 36.1 while Virginia’s is 39.2.
Other than communities with four-year colleges, Martinsville now has the youngest median age of any county or city in Southwest and Southside.
Even more amazing, Martinsville has been growing younger at a faster rate than all but one other community in Virginia. How has this happened?
Martinsville is gaining population in every age group under 45
That’s the demographic dividing line. From 45 up, Martinsville is losing people, either through death or the moving van. Under 45, it’s gaining people in every five-year age band. This is unusual. Even in Lynchburg, a community that’s gaining population faster, there are some variations from one age group to another.
On a percentage basis, Martinsville’s fastest age growth is among those from birth to 14 — up 24.4% since 2020. That’s 585 new residents, not an insignificant number in a city Martinsville’s size. You can see here how unusual that is — most of Virginia is losing people in that age group. On a percentage basis, only two places in Virginia have seen a faster growth in those 0-14 over the first half of this decade: Lexington has seen an increase of 47.4%, Fairfax city 41.5%. Statewide, that age group has shrunk by 2.7%.
On a percentage basis, Martinsville has the third fastest baby boom in Virginia
Now let’s look closer. Most of that 0-14 growth is coming very recently, in those from 0-4. That age group accounts for 363 of the 585 new residents 0-14. This is what happens when you have a younger population. Nature takes its course. Now Martinsville is looking at increased school enrollment in the years ahead.
Martinsville’s 0-4 population has grown by 45.3% over the past five years. On a percentage basis, only Lexington and Fairfax city have had a faster growth rate in that age group; Lexington at 131.5% and Fairfax city at 64.6%. Statewide, that age group has shrunk by 3.9%.
This data doesn’t tell us whether these are children being born to Martinsville parents or whether these are parents of young children moving into Martinsville. This baby boom could be happening in Martinsville, or it could be happening somewhere else, and Martinsville just gets the benefit. Still, it’s notable that the hospital in Martinsville closed its labor and delivery unit in 2022 because deliveries were down. This raises policy questions that go well beyond the city council if the city’s demographics are now evolving in a way that the local healthcare system doesn’t support.
Despite Martinsville’s baby boom, there’s more business at the funeral home: Over the past five years, deaths outnumbered births by 669.
Martinsville’s population growth is happening because people are moving into the city
That baby boom is reducing the deaths-over-births deficit, but the deficit remains. That means if Martinsville is gaining population (and it is), the only reason is because more people are moving in than moving out, and that net in-migration overwhelms everything else. Over the past five years, Martinsville’s net in-migration was 895 people.
For comparison purposes, Roanoke’s net in-migration during that time was 988, even though Roanoke is more than seven times bigger than Martinsville. This is where Martinsville can really declare a demographic victory: More people are moving in than moving out. Some of this is no doubt a result of decisions related to housing: We’ve seen a lot of former commercial buildings, and even one school, converted to housing. There’s clearly a demand.
Demographically, this looks like a city beginning to remake itself. If the developments underway in the next county over come to pass — the Microporous and Stack Infrastructure projects at the Southern Virginia Megasite in Pittsylvania County — it’s easy to see the housing demand in Martinsville increase further. Whoever voters choose for the city council, those officials need to be prepared for this.
Now, for the bad news.
Wage growth in Martinsville has reversed
From 2019 to 2022, Martinsville’s average weekly pay increased by 6.9%. Since 2022, though, wages have declined by 1.0%. Most of that came from 2024 to 2025. If we measure from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, wages are down 5.6%. Much of that decline has come from the loss of manufacturing jobs, the region’s highest-paid sector, as well as losses in construction, professional services and even healthcare, a field that’s growing most other places. The income increases have come in lower-paid fields — good news for workers there but not enough to shift the overall trends.
This leaves Martinsville with an unusual set of trends: Population is growing while the economy is shrinking. Usually, the two move hand in hand. How to take advantage of the former while turning around the latter seems to be one of the main challenges the city leaders will need to deal with.
See where the candidates for Martinsville City Council stand
Three of the five candidates have responded to our issues questionnaire. See their answers on the Martinsville page of our Voter Guide. We’re also sponsoring a candidate forum on Oct. 20; you can register for this free event here.
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