If there’s a blue wave this fall, it would almost certainly first show up in Virginia in the 2nd District in Hampton Roads — not because it’s by the shore but because that’s historically the closest congressional district in the state.
Democrat Elaine Luria won the seat in 2018 — the midterms of Donald Trump’s first term — with 51.0% of the vote and then won reelection in 2020 with 51.6% of the vote.
Redistricting reshaped the district to make it somewhat more Republican by bringing in more rural voters west of Hampton Roads in Isle of Wight and Southampton counties. Between that redistricting and the anti-Democratic trend of the Joe Biden midterms, Republican Jen Kiggans ousted Luria in 2022 with 51.6% of the vote (we’re sensing a trend here) and then won reelection two years ago with 50.7% of the vote.
Based on these numbers, we’d expect the 2nd District to be close this year no matter what the political environment might be. Nationally, we’re seeing lots of polls that show Democrats with a big lead on “generic ballot” polls and also with leads in polls that actually name candidates. Based on those, you’d think that Luria would be leading Kiggans in their 2026 rematch. She apparently is, but not by that much, which raises questions about whether there really is a blue wave forming.
A poll released Wednesday by Christopher Newport University gives Luria a lead of 46% to 43% among likely voters. That’s just within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. We can safely conclude that the race is close, and we might even be able to conclude that Luria probably has an advantage — neither of those should be a surprise under the circumstances. Midterms are rarely kind to the president’s party; Kiggans benefited from this four years ago and now has to deal with the hazards of incumbency. However, if we’re really about to see some big Democratic blowout as some commentators predict, shouldn’t Luria’s lead be, umm, bigger? (Just a few hours after the CNU poll was released, the number-cruncher G. Elliot Morris sent out a newsletter from his Strength in Numbers site headlined: “House race polling also points to a big blue wave.”)
Based on previous election returns, if there were a blue wave hitting Virginia, here’s how we’d expect it to rise: The 2nd, as the closest district, would be the first to fall. Then would come the 1st (now held by Rob Wittman). The 5th (now held by John McGuire) would require an especially big wave. For a Democratic wave to displace Ben Cline in the 6th and Morgan Griffith in the 9th, it would need to be a tsunami beyond anything we’ve seen in decades or beyond.
We don’t have much polling in congressional races from neutral sources (I discount all party-aligned polls even if the numbers feel right). A few weeks ago, the Washington Post-Schar School polled two districts in Virginia. Interestingly, it skipped the 2nd and instead looked at the 1st and the 5th, two districts that haven’t been competitive in the past but appear to be this time. Those polls found Democrat Shannon Taylor ahead of Wittman in the 1st by 50% to 46%, while McGuire led Democrat Tom Perriello in the 5th by 51% to 45%.
Based on those polls, I’d have expected Luria to be further ahead of Kiggans than she is, so what gives? Is this an indication that national polls are overstating Democratic support? Is this a sign that Republicans are making up lost ground? Or is there something unique to the Luria vs. Kiggans race that means we can’t extrapolate from this one district to draw larger conclusions? We won’t know for sure until the votes are counted in November, but that won’t stop any of us from jumping ahead to speculation.
There are some things that make this race unusual: The fact that Luria previously served in Congress means she has a record that can be attacked, unlike a challenger who has never served in office and upon whom voters can project their views. The 2nd is also a military-oriented district; both candidates are veterans, which would seem to neutralize any advantage by either, but the 2nd is distinct from others in Virginia in that regard. Historically, Kiggans has been viewed as more moderate than other Republicans — such as, say, McGuire, who has signs up touting his ties to Trump. Whether Kiggans is truly that moderate is a point that Luria has challenged, but Kiggans has generally not been perceived to be part of the Make America Great Again movement, and in politics, perception usually counts more than reality.
Nonetheless, there may be some data beneath the surface in this poll that is useful statewide.
Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans
Parties out of power are often very energized about getting back in, and that’s what we’re seeing here: Sixty-four percent of Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting while 56% of Republicans are. We’ve seen this elsewhere in other ways this year, particularly in the 5th District, where early voting is way up in strongly Democratic localities (Charlottesville and Albemarle County) but down in many Republican localities. (That’s not been the case in the 6th District, where the early voting in Democratic Roanoke is down while the early voting in red Rockingham County is up).
Republicans in many districts face two opponents: Democrats and complacency.
Trump is the main motivating factor for most Democrats
In this poll, 81% of Democrats said they saw their vote in the congressional election as a vote against Trump. Here’s why that’s a problem for Republicans: It means that Republican attacks on Democrats may not do much to dissuade Democrats from backing their candidate because, in some way, it seems the identity of their candidate doesn’t matter; whoever the Democratic nominee is may simply be a vehicle through which to vote against Trump.
The good news for Republicans: Fifty-six percent say Trump is not a factor for them. This means whatever Trump says or does between now and Election Day may not matter to them.
Independents are always the wild card (more on them to come), and they’re split: Forty-three percent say their vote will be a vote against Trump, 42% say Trump doesn’t matter, only 7% say their vote will be a vote for Trump.
Independents are motivated by issues that would tip them to Democrats
For Democrats, the top issue is the cost of living; 32% cite that as their top issue, with 27% citing threats to democracy.
For Republicans, the top issue is immigration; 24% cite that. Only 14% cite the cost of living.
On Tuesday, Cline toured the 6th District with former Gov. Glenn Youngkin in tow to rally Republicans. Immigration was one of the issues Cline stressed; that’s in keeping with what Republican voters seem to be interested in most.
Here’s the challenge for Republicans: On the issues this year, independents look more like Democratic voters. In this poll, their top issue was the cost of living (25%) followed by threats to democracy (22%). In this poll, immigration ranked sixth for independents, at just 6%. Emphasizing secure borders may motivate Republicans (and Republican candidates need their base to turn out), but it won’t win over many independents. Democrats seem best positioned to do that.
There’s another way to look at these numbers, and it’s also troublesome for Republicans: Voters with less than a college education, who lately have been Republican voters, also cite the cost of living as their top concern, with threats to democracy second. If Republicans want to keep those voters this year, they need to find a way to address those concerns about the economy.
Of note: Data centers were among the issues that the survey asked voters to rank, and they barely registered as a concern — just 2% overall cited those as the top issue. That might be unique to the 2nd District, where data centers do not appear to have generated the same controversy they have elsewhere. In both the 5th and 6th, Perriello and Beth Macy have made data centers a key part of their campaign themes. Perhaps they have seen different polling data than we’re seeing here in the 2nd.
Independents strongly disapprove of Trump
Here’s another way that independents this year look like Democratic voters: In this poll, 74% said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency. (For comparison, 98% of Democrats do, while 80% of Republicans approve.)
Once again, we see those voters with less than a college education also aligning with Democrats: Fifty-eight percent of them disapprove of Trump.
The more that Democrats can talk about Trump and the cost of living, the more likely they are to win over these voters; Republicans need a way to skip over Trump and address the cost of living. The challenge for Republicans is they need to deliver two messages: one to motivate lethargic Republican voters, the other to win over independents who don’t like Trump or Trump’s economy. Democrats just need one.
Just because the race is close now doesn’t mean it will turn out that way
Not surprisingly, the biggest group of undecided voters is independents. The independents who have already made up their minds are trending toward Luria, 45% to 38%. Given the profile of independents we just saw, it would not be surprising to see those independents break late for Luria to give her a bigger lead than she has now. The challenge for Democrats is to make sure those independents actually vote; the challenge for Republicans is to persuade independents to back them. Which side has the harder task before them?
Finally, there’s this:
Spanberger is underwater in a district she won
In last year’s governor’s race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger carried the 2nd District with 53.6% of the vote, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. This poll now finds that more people disapprove of Spanberger’s handling of the governorship than approve — 49% don’t like what she’s done, 42% do.
This is roughly in line with some statewide polls we’ve seen this year that show Spanberger has, at best, mixed reviews.
Some notable findings: Democrats aren’t as keen on her as you’d think; 78% approve of her handling of the job, 16% disapprove.
Independents are the problem: Forty-four percent approve, 43% disapprove.
We shouldn’t be surprised that 90% of Republicans disapprove.
Demographically, it’s voters without college degrees who are the least keen on the governor — 57% disapprove, 32% approve. Those with college degrees are on the plus side for Spanberger, but not by that much: Fifty percent approve, 42% disapprove.
Unfortunately, this poll doesn’t offer any insight into just why Spanberger winds up with higher disapprovals than approvals. This is something we need more polling for. Until now, this is what we have. Come November, we’ll know for sure.
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