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Democrats may want to put the champagne on ice and order a strong cup of coffee instead.
A parade of polls through the first part of September have shown Kamala Harris with a comfortable lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, ranging from 7 percentage points all the way up to 13 percentage points.
Now comes a new poll, from the University of Mary Washington, that says the race is essentially tied in the state. The poll put the race at Harris 47%, Trump 46% when other candidates were included, or Harris 48%, Trump 46% when just those two were asked about. Both results are well within the margin of error.
The Mary Washington poll also shows Republican Senate candidate Hung Cao within striking distance of Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine, with the results at Kaine 48%, Cao 43%.
This poll is similar to the Roanoke College poll in August that gave Harris a lead of 3 percentage points, within the margin of error. Democrats — led by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe — disputed that poll, although they were obviously happier with later polls.
The Mary Washington poll is so different from the other recent polls that it’s easy to ask: Is this right?
I asked Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which conducted this poll, whether it was structured in a different way than others. His answer was essentially “no.”
“All surveys represent snapshots at a point in time and are subject to variation because of margins of errors,” he said. “As a result, some surveys may be more favorable and some may be less favorable to one side or the other.”
Other polls have been somewhat fluid. While all the other recent ones have consistently shown Harris ahead, there’s a big difference between a lead of 7 percentage points (as shown in the Morning Consult and Washington Post/Schar School polls) and 13 percentage points (shown in the Virginia Commonwealth University poll). If those polls can be 6 percentage points apart in a pro-Harris direction, it doesn’t seem hard to imagine a poll that’s 6 percentage points apart in the other direction. That’s what we have here. Let’s take a closer look.
Some details for those into such things: “The poll was conducted by Research America Inc.
between September 3 and September 9, 2024. The survey included a total of 1,000 Virginia
residents (unweighted), consisting of 870 registered voters and 774 likely voters. The data collection was carried out through a mixed-mode approach: 600 respondents were contacted by phone (80% cell phones and 20% landlines), and 400 respondents were contacted via online panel. Interviews were conducted in English, and the final dataset was weighted to correct for known demographic discrepancies, including age, gender, and race/ethnicity, ensuring that the results are representative of the Virginia population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1%, while the margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.1%.”
Virginians don’t think much of Biden
Some of the cross-tabs for the Mary Washington poll — the details that let us look at what’s driving these numbers — match up with some other polls lately. For instance, most respondents disapprove of how Joe Biden has handled the presidency: 53% disapprove, 41% approve. That’s a bigger gap than in the more favorable Post poll, but even the Post poll found Biden on the short end, approval-wise. If voters are predisposed to disapprove of the president, then it stands to reason that his vice president might have a hard time persuading some of them to vote for her instead.
Virginians think the nation is on the wrong track
The Mary Washington poll also asks a question that some other polls with more favorable findings for Harris haven’t: Is the nation on the right track or wrong track? In the UMW poll, 52% say the wrong track, 18% say the right track. Once again, if that’s where voters are starting from, then a sitting vice president has an uphill battle in making the case that she’s the one to put the nation on the right track.
The challenge for Harris (or Democrats in general) is to speak to voters who are unhappy about the current state of the country at a time when a Democrat sits in the White House.
You can also turn these numbers around: If voters overwhelmingly think the nation is on the wrong track but aren’t overwhelmingly for the party out of power (in this case Republicans), we have to ask, why the disconnect? I suspect the answer is a lot of those “wrong track” voters are simply uncomfortable with Trump, or actively dislike him. A different Republican nominee would likely have had an easier route to the White House, but Republicans chose Trump, so dealing with the intense negative reactions he generates from people who might otherwise vote Republican is a problem they chose to live with. My sense of things is that the fundamentals (unhappiness with the economy) make this a Republican year, but Trump (with some help from JD Vance) could make it a Democratic year. Memo to Trump: Shut up about people allegedly eating cats and talk about the rising price of cat food.
Independents split evenly
The poll shows independents nearly split, 42% of independents for Harris, 41% for Trump. The VCU poll had shown Trump leading among independents, the Post poll and Morning Consult had shown Harris leading among independents. The Mary Washington poll comes down right in the middle. Draw whatever conclusions you like from that. A recent Christopher Newport University poll of the 2nd Congressional District in Hampton Roads (now held by Republican Jen Kiggans) found that independents there mirror Republicans this year in the issues they care about. If that’s the case statewide (and it may be not, see below), then an even split among independents may essentially be a win for Harris. Nonetheless, this Mary Washington poll, like others, shows both Harris and Trump can count on strong support from their base. That means the election will be decided by independents, so if they’re split, then we shouldn’t be surprised that the overall results are, too.
Independents this year think much like Republicans on some key issues
The Mary Washington poll asked about issues differently from other polls, which makes it hard to compare across polls. Other polls simply listed “the economy” or “the cost of living” as concerns. This poll is more nuanced, drawing a distinction between “economy and jobs” and “inflation.” Some other polls didn’t list “threats to democracy” as an option. This one did. I always stress that every poll is different and comparing them is like the proverbial apples and oranges. This year it’s more like apples, oranges, lemons, kiwis, pomegranates …
Here’s one way in which the Mary Washington poll is different from others: The top concern among independents is threats to democracy; 23% cited that as their top issue. Another 20% said economy/jobs, while 16% said inflation. However, if you put those two economic answers together, then the economy is the top concern for independents. Since Harris represents the party in power, that’s a challenge for her. If people are worried about the economy, the party in power always has the harder case to make and the party out of power always has the easier one. This seems a danger sign for Democrats. Harris needs to talk more about the economy.
Moderates break toward Harris
Not surprisingly, conservatives are strong for Trump and liberals are strong for Harris. Here’s what is more clearly good news for Harris: Moderates go for her 56% to 29%.
This suggests that she might be able to overcome concerns about the nation being on the wrong track if she can portray Trump as too conservative — and that Republicans need to do a better job of portraying Harris as too liberal.
Young voters strongly favor Harris, but Trump has an opening
In 2020, Joe Biden won young voters overwhelmingly — 58% to 35%. Polls earlier this year showed Biden having trouble with younger voters (maybe not the same young voters as four years ago because some have now aged out of the category and others have aged in). More recently polls in Virginia have shown Harris doing better but not as good as she’d like. VCU showed that among those 18 to 24, she was leading 39.3% to 34.5%.
The Mary Washington poll has better news for her. It shows Harris leading that age group 51% to 26%. In fact, that’s the only age group where she’s ahead; the poll finds her tied among those 26-54 and trailing among those 55 and older. If you’re a Democrat, you want a big turnout of these younger voters. If you’re a Republican, you might want different or better messaging — because the cross-tabs show that these younger voters are mostly concerned about the economy. The Mary Washington poll says 19% list “the economy and jobs” as their top issue while another 19% list inflation. If you tie those together, that’s 38% and nothing else comes close — gun policy comes in at 11%. Once again, I have to wonder if Trump isn’t doing better with this age cohort simply because voters just don’t like him.
If this poll is right, Cao has a chance
Notice that Kaine is pulling the same numbers in the Senate race as Harris is in the presidential race in this poll, while Cao is running behind Trump. That tells me Cao simply isn’t well enough known among Republicans yet. I’d assume that, in the end, those Trump voters would vote for Cao, too — unless they simply don’t vote in the Senate race. That kind of ballot drop-off is a potential problem for Cao.
Other polls have shown Kaine with a comfortable double-digit lead. This poll suggests things could really wind up tied. That goes back to a question I posed in a previous column: Is Cao more like Corey Stewart, the Republican whom Kaine easily dispatched six years ago, or is he more like Bill Scott, the Republican who upset William Spong back in 1972?
Cao is running what might best be described as a stealth campaign. He’s ducked out of two debates that are typically must-attend events for any statewide candidate, before the Virginia Bar Association and the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. He’s avoiding interviews from most news outlets. He’s declined at least six requests by Cardinal to upload information to our Voter Guide. Voters, though, are curious — he’s one of the most-queried candidates on our site. (Updated Saturday 10:23 a.m.: Cao’s campaign has now uploaded responses to the Voter Guide. Since we launched the Voter Guide, he’s the third most-searched for candidate and the only federal candidate to make the Top 20). Cao seems to be hoping he can skate through by tugging tightly to Trump and hoping Trump ekes out a win in Virginia. Is that possible? Other polls have said no way. This poll says quite possibly.
For readers in Democratic areas who can’t fathom that possibility, I refer you to my column about how Republicans have untapped electoral strength in rural areas. For readers in Republican areas who don’t see a single Harris sign in sight, I suggest you take a weekend trip to Northern Virginia.
For everyone else, let’s wait and see what the next polls say. Or, better yet, you could go vote in the only poll that matters: Early voting in Virginia is now underway.
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