Roanoke author Beth Macy has raised more money in her congressional bid than Republican incumbent Ben Cline but might never get a chance to face him if voters next week approve a proposed constitutional amendment on redistricting.
If redistricting weren’t an issue, the story of the day from the new round of campaign finance reports released this week would be how two well-known Democratic challengers have outraised two Republican incumbents and stand poised to mount well-funded campaigns in parts of the state where Democrats haven’t been competitive for many years.
Not only has Macy outraised Cline in the 6th District, but former Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County has outraised Republican incumbent John McGuire in the 5th District.
However, if voters approve redistricting on Tuesday, Cline and McGuire would be cast into other districts with unfavorable prospects — while Macy and Perriello would both be put into the same district, which means two well-funded Democratic candidates would face each other in a primary with only one surviving to the general election.
The only public poll for that redrawn 6th District showed Perriello with a commanding lead, which suggests that a “yes” vote on redistricting would lead to Macy’s early exit in the primaries, while a “no” vote would more easily hand her the Democratic nomination and pit her against Cline, although in a district that’s been hard for Democrats to win. The fundraising totals in these reports, though, suggest she’d present an aggressive challenge to Cline if given the chance.
These options show the political complexities that lie behind a simple “yes” or “no” question on the ballot. For Democrats, a “yes” vote would enable a map designed to knock out four of the state’s five Republican House members and give Democrats more certainty about election outcomes, but it would come at the expense of discarding either the second- or third-best-funded challenger in the state. And if the candidate pushed out is Macy, then a Democratic map would push out one of the best-funded Democratic women seeking a congressional seat in Virginia this year and the only one who has outraised the Republican incumbent she’s trying to unseat.
Here’s an overview of the finance reports:
Only two Democrats outraise Republican incumbents: Macy and Perriello
Let’s start by looking at races through the existing map, which has five Republican incumbents. Democratic challengers have outraised two of them, but not in the districts where Democrats stand the best chance of winning. Instead, it’s Democrats in two rural-based districts in the western part of the state.
In the two districts where Democrats think they have the best chance of winning, the 1st in eastern Virginia and the 2nd in Hampton Roads, Democratic candidates have raised impressive amounts of money, but the Republican incumbents — Rob Wittman in the 1st and Jen Kiggans in the 2nd — still have more. Let’s walk through these.
Perriello outraises McGuire
In the 5th District (Southside plus Charlottesville), Perriello holds a significant financial advantage over McGuire — if that’s who he winds up facing. There are three ways to report these figures; I’ll try to spare you too many details.
Over the course of the campaign, Perriello has outraised McGuire, $1.4 million to $1.2 million — even though Perriello didn’t enter the race until December and McGuire had all last year to raise money. That’s noteworthy, but until the prospect of redistricting emerged, and then Perriello entered the race, McGuire could have safely assumed he’d have an easy reelection campaign.
For this particular reporting period, the first quarter of 2026, Perriello has also outraised McGuire, $679,792 to $370,529. That means even after McGuire knew he might face a serious opponent, he was still outraised.
Finally, there’s the metric of cash on hand. I always like this measure because it shows what candidates have to spend. For all we know, some money might have been squandered, but cash on hand is essentially a stockpile of potential political ammunition, so it speaks to what kind of threat a candidate might pose to his or her opponents. On this score, Perriello has twice as much cash on hand as McGuire: $1.1 million to $441,894.
If “no” wins and the 5th District stays as it is, McGuire is in danger of being vastly outspent by Perriello, although Perriello might need to do so to win in such a Republican-leaning district.
Macy outraises Cline
We see a similar pattern in the current 6th District (Roanoke Valley north to Winchester).
Over the course of the campaign, Macy has raised a little more than Cline, even though she’s had a much later start: $1.098 million to $1.025 million.
She’s also outraised Cline for the quarter: $480,085 to $378,593.
As for my favorite category, she’s got more cash in hand than he does: $719,305 to $655,823.
The two other Democratic candidates in the current 6th District are well behind. Ken Mitchell of Rockingham County, the party’s nominee two years ago, has $62,219 in the bank. Pete Barlow of Augusta County has $14,572. There’s no filing yet from Hugh Murray, who lives in Henrico County but is mounting an out-of-district race (candidates don’t have to live in their district, just in the same state).
While money alone doesn’t determine elections, Macy would seem to be well on her way to winning the nomination in the current 6th District. Right now, she enjoys an unusual status for a Democrat from west of the Blue Ridge. In the state’s five Republican-held districts, there have been 31 Democratic challengers this cycle (some have since left the race). Out of those, only two have raised more money than Macy, and both are former House members: Elaine Luria in the 2nd and Perriello in the 5th. Macy has raised more money than any first-time candidate on either side in Virginia this congressional cycle.
Now, let’s look to see what happens if redistricting passes, and she’s paired with Perriello.
In a Perriello-Macy primary, Perriello has the financial advantage
On all three financial measures, Perriello leads Macy. If we jump to cash on hand, it’s Perriello $1.1 million and Macy $719,305.
Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, has said he might enter the race if redistricting passes. He’s been a formidable fundraiser in previous campaigns, but he’d be starting late here. Perhaps what’s most significant is that the Federal Election Commission lists no campaign committee for him yet.
Now let’s take a quick look at other districts.
Luria narrows gap with Kiggans, but Wittman has big financial advantage over Taylor
The two districts that Democrats started off challenging in this cycle are the 1st and 2nd.
The 2nd District in Hampton Roads has long been a swing district. Republican Jen Kiggans narrowly won last time, and this year there’s a crowded field of Democrats who want the right to run against her. The best-known, and best-funded, is former Rep. Elaine Luria. For simplicity’s sake, in these districts outside our coverage area, I’ll go straight to cash on hand. In the 2nd, Kiggans has $3 million, Luria almost $2.3 million.
Redistricting won’t dramatically alter the shape of the 2nd, so voters there are going to see a high-dollar race no matter what happens.
In the 1st District — which is mostly east of Interstate 95 and north of the James River, except for a weird little jag to the west of Richmond — there are multiple Democratic candidates looking to challenge Republican Rob Wittman. The best-known and best-funded is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who narrowly lost her bid for her party’s nomination for attorney general last year. However, her funding falls far short of what Wittman has ready: He has $3.8 million in the bank, Taylor has $480,967.
Republicans consider Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman in the current 7th District vulnerable, but the financial reports don’t show that. He has $4.1 million cash on hand; the nearest Republican, state Sen. Tara Durant, has just $193,875.
Redistricting would help Taylor but hurt Macy
If redistricting passes, one of the winners would be Taylor. Instead of facing Wittman with his $3.8 million war chest, she’d be in a redrawn 5th District that would stretch to Campbell County — and have no Republican incumbent and no other Democratic challengers. Redistricting would redirect Taylor from a tough but winnable race into one where she’s virtually assured of victory.
Macy would be the Democratic candidate most disadvantaged by redistricting. Instead of being almost certain of getting on the November ballot, she’d become an underdog to survive past the August primary.
We have an incomplete picture for the lobster district
Democrats have been lining up (eight so far) to run in a new version of the 7th District, if redistricting passes. This is the so-called “lobster district” because of its unusual shape. Only a few campaign finance reports from candidates there were available Thursday, so we don’t really know what’s happening, moneywise, in this race. The FEC site didn’t list a report for former First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe, but the Virginia Public Access Project reported she had raised $1.1 million, which would put her ahead of Del. Dan Helmer ($642,313 raised) and former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney ($543,533). For our purposes, the significance of McAuliffe’s haul is she’d be slightly ahead of Macy in fundraising, bumping Macy down to fourth overall among Democrats in the state who aren’t incumbents. Even so, Macy’s numbers mark her as a top fundraiser for Virginia Democrats in this cycle.
The 9th District is the one district Democrats concede
The “one” in the Democrats’ proposed 10-1 congressional map is the 9th District in Southwest Virginia. It starts off as the most Republican congressional district in the state, and the proposed redistricting map makes it more so — subtracting Democratic-leaning Radford and Blacksburg and adding some bright-red parts of the Shenandoah Valley all the way up to Augusta County.
Nonetheless, there are Democrats who want the party’s nomination in the 9th, although none have much money. Joy Powers has $12,256 cash on hand, Adam Murphy has $9,341, while Douglass Crockett hasn’t filed a report yet.
Republican incumbent Morgan Griffith has $925,194.
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