New CNU poll has key finding: Independents think more like Republicans this year

Voting in Virginia begins Sept. 20. Who’s on your ballot? You can look it up on our Voter Guide and see where many of the candidates stand.

If Republicans really believe Virginia is in play, we’ll know it when Donald Trump comes back to the state. If and when he does, it’s also clear where he needs to go: Hampton Roads. 

If Kamala Harris ever campaigns in Virginia, it’s also clear what she needs to do: make a better case to independents about why she’s the best candidate to handle the economy. In fact, she may need to do that wherever she campaigns, Virginia or elsewhere.

Those are the conclusions I draw from a new poll that came out Friday from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership.

The poll sampled only the 2nd Congressional District in Hampton Roads, long a swing district (although redistricting has made it more conservative) and site of a nationally watched contest between Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans and Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. The CNU poll found Kiggans ahead, 45% to 40%.

However, the poll has other insights that, while derived only from the 2nd District, have statewide implications. 

Here’s one: The poll shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied at 46% in this district. 

Here’s another one: In this district, Democrat Tim Kaine leads the Senate race, 43% to 32%, over Republican challenger Hung Cao.

Here’s a district that’s tied in the presidential district, leaning toward the Democrat in the Senate race, and leaning toward the Republican in the House race. Does this mean there are a surprising number of ticket-splitters in Hampton Roads? My reading of the data (which we’ll get to) is “no” — we’re simply seeing some down-ballot candidates who haven’t mobilized all their support yet.

My biggest takeaway is that this poll shows where Trump’s potential strength — and weakness — in Virginia is. It also shows why every public poll so far has found Cao trailing by double digits statewide.

When Republicans win statewide, it’s because they’ve managed to hold down Democratic margins in Northern Virginia, they’ve run up the score in rural Virginia — and they’ve won Hampton Roads. The two most swing localities there are also its two biggest: Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.

When Democrat Joe Biden carried Virginia four years ago, he won 51.6% of the vote in Virginia Beach and 52.2% in Chesapeake. When Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governorship a year later, he flipped both those places — taking Virginia Beach with 53.6% and Chesapeake with 52.4%. In close elections in Virginia, all eyes go to those two places (plus some others) to look for trends.

That’s why when Trump campaigned in Virginia in June, he went to Chesapeake (while running mate JD Vance later went to Radford). Without a win in Hampton Roads, and a big margin in rural Virginia, he can’t carry Virginia. 

That’s also why this CNU poll of the 2nd District is of interest beyond the district’s boundaries. Chesapeake is split between congressional districts, but all of Virginia Beach is in the 2nd District. In fact, “the beach” accounts for 57% of the district’s voters. In all, about three-quarters of the voters in the district come from two key swing localities, which means this poll gives us insight into swing voters that we potentially can extrapolate statewide. In some places, the CNU results match those of recent statewide polls (confirmation is always useful). In others, it provides some new information because it asks questions other polls haven’t. 

I wrote about those other polls in a previous column. Here’s my analysis of the new CNU survey:

If Trump is to be competitive in Virginia, he needs to do better in Hampton Roads. 

Harris can probably settle for a tie there; Trump can’t. Other polling this week shows Harris leading Trump in Virginia by 8 to 10 percentage points statewide. If Trump is to cut into that, he needs better numbers in Hampton Roads and a bigger-than-usual turnout in rural Virginia (among other things). The Washington Post poll showed Harris leading in “Tidewater,” a wider geography, and with a smaller sub-sample. That makes the numbers impossible to compare, but it seems clear that Trump needs to do better in Hampton Roads if he’s to be competitive statewide. 

Independents think much like Republicans: The economy is the biggest issue. Democrats aren’t that concerned about the economy. 

The danger sign for Democrats is that independents are concerned about the same things that Republicans are, which surely explains why this poll (like others taken statewide) shows those independents breaking toward Republicans (with one exception to come). 

Every poll I’ve seen (statewide or this one) shows that the top issue is the economy. This one is no exception. The Virginia Commonwealth University poll this week showed that independents were more likely to trust Trump on the economy over Harris. The CNU poll asks the question in a different way and produces a potentially instructive result. For Republicans in the 2nd District, the economy is far and away their top issue — 44% cite that. Independents cite the economy as their top concern, too, just at a lower level — 35%. For Democrats, though, the economy isn’t their top concern. It’s barely their third concern. For Democrats in the 2nd District, the top concern is a threat to democracy — 22%. Abortion comes in at second at 19%, with the economy and racial inequality tied at 11%. 

If these figures are representative statewide or nationally, then Harris has a challenge: To win over swing voters, she needs to spend more time talking about the economy, an issue that her supporters aren’t particularly worried about. Put another way, whenever she’s talking about abortion or the threat Trump poses to democracy, she’s talking about something that might enthuse her base but won’t persuade swing voters to support her. By contrast, whenever Trump talks about the economy, he’s speaking both to his base and to swing voters. That means he’s got the easier job. If Trump talks about immigration, same thing — Republicans rank that as their second-biggest issue. So do independents, just at a lower level. Democrats in this poll show, literally, zero interest in immigration. To win, Harris is going to have to spend time campaigning on Trump’s turf, issue-wise. If Trump winds up winning the election overall, that will be one of the reasons; the electorate this year is more aligned with Republican concerns than Democratic ones. 

Suburban Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans.

This finding surprises me, because it runs counter to my personal observations, which are that Republicans are very motivated this year. However, my personal observations are primarily from Republicans in rural areas; this poll deals mostly with suburban voters because the 2nd is primarily a suburban district. This poll finds that in the 2nd District, 68% of Democrats are very enthusiastic about the election while only 58% of Republicans are. Research director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo at CNU attributed this Democratic enthusiasm to “the Harris factor” that has energized Democrats after Biden stepped aside. If suburban Republicans are more subdued in their support for Trump, that’s a problem for Republicans — although it would be consistent with Trump’s weak showing among suburban voters in previous elections. 

Down-ballot candidates haven’t caught up to their ticketmates. 

That shouldn’t be a surprise. The presidential race is the headline race; some of the other candidates simply aren’t as well-known. 

In the 2nd District race, the fact that Harris and Trump are tied at 46% apiece while Kiggans leads 45% to 40% tells me that Cotter Smasal may simply not be well-known enough — the Trump/Kiggans vote seems consistent while some Harris voters are not yet behind Cotter Smasal. That’s a challenge for Cotter Smasal but also a warning for Kiggans that this race could close quickly as Democrats invest more in the race.

The same principle applies in the Senate race, just more so — with one important exception. Kaine is running about even with Harris in the district, while Cao is significantly behind both Trump and Kiggans. Here’s that important exception:

Kaine is winning independents; other Democrats aren’t

Kaine stands out from other Democrats in this category. Independents in the 2nd District back Trump over Harris, 48% to 38%. They back Kiggans over Cotter Smasal 46% to 26%. However, they support Kaine 44% to 30% over Cao. 

Cao suffers in two ways: He doesn’t have full support yet from Republicans; that could easily change as he becomes better known. However, he’s getting clobbered by Kaine among independents. That’s where the ticket-splitting is likely to happen — independents who vote Trump and Kiggans but then vote Kaine. 

During the Republican Senate primary, Cao said it was “ridonkulous” for him to drive from his home in Loudoun County to campaign forums in Abingdon — or Hampton Roads.

That didn’t hurt him in the primary, where he won every locality in the state except one (Emporia). For the general election, though, he may need to hit the road more, with Hampton Roads as his top destination. If he keeps losing independents, he won’t even be able to match Trump numbers, and if Trump doesn’t do better with suburban voters in Hampton Roads, neither of them will win in Virginia.