Twenty years ago, voters in Goochland County went to the polls and voted for Republicans up and down the line — for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives. They also voted in favor of an amendment to the state constitution that banned same-sex marriage.
This year, voters from Goochland again went to the polls and once again voted for Republicans for the Senate and the House — but then they did something else. They voted for two constitutional amendments that Republicans have generally opposed. They approved Amendment 2, which repealed the ban on same-sex marriage that Goochland voters had helped enact in 2006, and instead guaranteed the right to such a union. They also voted in favor of Amendment 1, which guarantees the right to an abortion and addresses other reproductive health matters. Only on Amendment 3, which automatically restores civil rights to convicted felons after their sentence is served, did Goochland voters stick with the standard Republican line and vote no.
Goochland was unusual, but not unique: Voters in Clarke County and Rappahannock County also backed the Republican candidates for Senate and House and then voted in favor of the same two amendments. Like Goochland, Clarke and Rappahanock had favored a ban on same-sex marriage in 2006; this year, a majority of voters in those counties voted to guarantee that as a constitutional right in Virginia.
Then there were four other counties that backed Republican candidates but still voted for Amendment 1 on abortion — and came reasonably close to approving Amendment 2 on same-sex marriage: Frederick County, Isle of Wight County, Orange County and Westmoreland County.
Finally, there were other localities that supported a Republican candidate for the U.S. House — even in a bad Republican year — but still supported one or more of the constitutional amendments. Lancaster County and York County backed Republican Rob Wittman for Congress, but then voted in favor of Amendments 1 and 2. Accomack County and Essex County backed Republican candidates for the House and then voted for Amendment 1. Chesapeake appears to be the only locality that backed a Republican candidate for the House and then voted for all three amendments.
Political campaigns are often won or lost around the margins; these localities were the ones at the margin of some fascinating trends Tuesday. We have seen in other states that when measures to guarantee abortion rights are on the ballot, they win support in some otherwise Republican-voting places. That was certainly the case in Virginia. The same-sex marriage amendment was fascinating in a different way: It gives us a chance to measure how much attitudes have changed in 20 years. There are likely many Virginians who voted for a ban on same-sex marriage in 2006 who in 2026 changed their minds and voted to guarantee that as a right. With a secret ballot, we can’t measure that exactly, but we can document which localities changed their minds, and by how much. Two decades ago, 57.1% of Virginians backed a constitutional ban; on Tuesday, 57.38% backed a constitutional right. In historical terms, that’s a pretty dramatic pivot.
When we look deeper into the numbers, here’s what we find:
Amendment 1: This was the most popular thing on the statewide ballot
As of Wednesday, there are still 35,502 early votes yet to be counted, plus provisional ballots (many of which are in yes-voting Democratic college towns) and whatever mail ballots still come in (these are typically less than 1% of the totals and are statistically insignificant). That’s my cautionary note that all these are unofficial numbers and will remain so until the Department of Elections certifies them next month.
Nonetheless, it’s clear that the “yes” vote on the reproductive health/abortion amendment was the most popular thing on the ballot. The current tallies show 2,181,695 votes for “yes.” For comparison, there were 2,168,802 votes for Democrat Mark Warner in the Senate race. If we assume (probably incorrectly) that every Warner supporter voted yes, that still leaves 12,893 voters who didn’t vote for Warner but voted yes. Another way to look at this: The Republican Senate candidate, Bert Mizusawa, received 1,373,583 votes while the “no” side on Amendment 1 took 1,315,441 votes. That means there were at least 58,142 Republican voters who didn’t vote no.
That may not seem like a lot in the context of an election where more than 3.5 million votes were cast, but when we look at the county level, things become more curious.
Let’s go back to Goochland County, where we started. John McGuire, the Republican incumbent in the 5th District congressional seat, led the balloting there with 9,542 votes — not surprising since that’s his home county. Democrat Tom Perriello took 7,693 votes.
Meanwhile, Amendment 1 passed in Goochland with 9,163 yes votes to 8,315 no votes. That means 1,227 people backed McGuire but did not support his position in opposition to Amendment 1. That’s 13.3% of his voters in his home county. Using the same math, 15.7% of Republican Ben Cline’s voters in Clarke County did not support his “no” position on Amendment 1. In Virginia Beach (which voted Democratic for Senate and House, then voted yes on all three amendments), it appears that almost 20% of those who backed Republican Jen Kiggans did not vote no on Amendment 1.
Another remarkable result came out of Lynchburg: The city that’s home to Liberty University voted narrowly in favor of Amendment 1.
Amendment 2: Virginians changed their mind on same-sex marriage
In 2006, Roanoke backed the ban on same-sex marriage: 54.4% of those casting ballots voted in favor of the constitutional amendment. This year, 66.21% voted to repeal that ban and guarantee the right to a same-sex marriage. Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising. Roanoke is a solidly Democratic city. It also has a mayor in a same-sex marriage.
The election map on the marriage amendment looks much like a standard election map in Virginia, with Democratic localities voting yes and Republican localities voting no. On closer inspection, though, we see some interesting differences. Clarke, Goochland, Rappahannock and York counties voted for Republican candidates but in favor of Amendment 2. The tallies there were often very close — in Rappahannock the yes side took 50.53%, in Goochland 50.87%, Clarke 51.8%, making York look like a runaway at 52.63%. Still, they delivered split results.
In places that voted no, the no vote was often strong — but not quite as strong as two decades ago. In 2006, the loudest votes against same-sex marriage came out of Buchanan County; 89.9% there backed the ban then. This time, 84.79% rejected the amendment. Some places have clearly changed their minds more than others. In general, it’s metro areas and some rural areas adjacent to them that have seen the biggest switch. Many rural areas haven’t budged at all and some, mostly around Lynchburg, saw more opposition to the measure this year than in 2006.
This map illustrates the size of the shift in views from 2006 to 2026, as measured by the change in what percentage favored same-sex marriage each year:
You’ll notice that some localities shift views a lot, while others have not. The single biggest shift is in Manassas Park, which saw a shift of 31.57 percentage points toward allowing same-sex marriage. Manassas and Prince William County were both in the 20-percentage point range; so were Chesapeake, Danville, Harrisonburg and Staunton. In general, the biggest shifts were in the fastest-growing communities, which means those changes in attitude played an even bigger role in the election.
There is also a distinctive trend in some Southside localities. Danville gave large vote shares to Democratic candidates (68.4% to Warner in the Senate race, 64.66% to Tom Perriello in his House race). In most places, the “yes” side on Amendment 1 ran ahead of the Democratic candidates. Here, it ran below, although not that much, at 62.77%. Amendment 3 also ran stronger here, with 59.51% yes. But Amendment 2 failed, mustering just 48.36% of the vote. That was up from 26.0% two decades ago, but still not a majority. We see the same pattern in Charles City County, Emporia and Greensville County — yes to the Democrats, yes to Amendments 1 and 3 not but Amendment 2. These are the only localities with this voting pattern.
Amendment 3: A more predictable voting pattern
This map looks more like a traditional Democrat/Republican election map, in a strong Democratic year. There are some swing localities that went for this amendment, such as Chesapeake, Prince Edward County and Spotsylvania County.
Here’s something interesting: Amendment 2 and Amendment 3 got almost the same vote share statewide. The marriage amendment won with 57.39%, and the restoration of rights amendment won with 56.47%. Beneath the surface, though, there was a lot of ticket-splitting.
In much of Southwest Virginia, the no vote on Amendment 3 ran about 5 percentage points lower than Amendment 2. In some parts of the urban crescent, such as Fairfax County and Virginia Beach, the no side ran stronger on Amendment 3 than Amendment 2 by a few percentage points — meaning the support for restoration of rights there was a little weaker than the support for same-sex marriage. In eastern Southside, though, the support for restoration of rights was distinctly higher than the support for same-sex marriage. In Brunswick County, Amendment 2 passed with 50.09%, but Amendment 3 passed with 56.48%. In Suffolk, Amendment 2 passed with 54.14%, but Amendment 3 passed with 60.42%. And then there were Greensville County and Emporia, cited above, that voted no on Amendment 2 but yes on Amendment 3 (admittedly, barely).
Elections are a kind of personality test and referendums are interesting because they deal purely with an issue, with no complications about how you might feel about a particular candidate, good or bad. These results give us new clues into Virginia’s personality, how it’s changed over the years and how it differs from one part of the state to another.
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