Virginians are voting again Tuesday, this time in party primaries to pick nominees for certain congressional and local nominations.
Normally, Virginia primaries are in June. This year’s primaries were pushed to August to account for the April 21 redistricting referendum. That didn’t work out as Democrats planned (well, the election did, the Virginia Supreme Court did not), so we’re back to the congressional districts we’ve had.
Whether these are important primaries may depend on where you live and what side of the political aisle you’re on. Republicans everywhere have a reason to vote because there’s a statewide primary for a U.S. Senate nominee, in addition to primaries to pick congressional nominees in three districts: the 5th, the 7th and the 11th. Some Democrats have no reason to vote because there are no Democratic primaries in some parts of the state, such as much of the Shenandoah Valley and parts of Northern Virginia, Richmond and eastern Southside. However, there are Democratic primaries in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 8th and 9th congressional districts, as well as local primaries Arlington County (county board), Chesterfield County (board of supervisors), Montgomery County (sheriff) and Roanoke (city council).
No matter where you live in Virginia, you can look up your county or city on our Voter Guide to see who’s on your ballot. We sent questionnaires to all the candidates to ask where they stand on various issues. Most replied, some did not. Either way, you can see what they had to say on the Voter Guide.
On Tuesday night, Cardinal News will have running totals from the Associated Press for the federal races and, as is customary, I’ll be posting analysis of the returns as they come in. Aside from simply who wins and who loses, here are some of the things I’ll be looking for:
1. Do any congressional incumbents lose?
Two sitting congressmen — Republican John McGuire in the 5th District and Democrat Don Beyer in the 8th District — face intraparty challenges. We haven’t had an incumbent denied renomination since, well, two years ago when McGuire narrowly ousted Bob Good (who four years earlier had ousted Denver Riggleman in a convention). It would be extraordinary if either incumbent lost, but extraordinary things do sometimes happen.
The challenge to Beyer is a classic one: younger candidates saying he’s been in office too long (12 years in Congress) and is out of touch with a party whose base is moving left. The 8th District Democratic primary has also drawn more early voters than any other primary in the state. We don’t know who these voters are backing, but something is motivating them — whether it’s to replace Beyer or keep Beyer or some of both, we don’t know yet. You can see how he and some of his challengers responded to our issues questionnaire on the Alexandria, Arlington County, Fairfax County and Falls Church pages of our Voter Guide.
The challenge to McGuire is harder to read. There are still wounds among some 5th District Republicans from the bruising McGuire-Good primary two years ago. That contest wasn’t about ideology, it was more about style — and opportunity. Maybe there’s some festering anti-McGuire sentiment that hasn’t bubbled up to the surface, but Melanie Lucero doesn’t seem to have done much to capitalize on it. She’s rarely given interviews — she declined to talk to Cardinal and never responded to our issues questionnaire. Generally, it’s challengers who want to do these things to call attention to themselves. For that matter, McGuire hasn’t granted interviews or responded to our questionnaire, either, although he’s brought in a steady stream of Trump administration officials and House leaders, and most recently former Gov. Glenn Youngkin, so at least he has some evidence of a campaign.
2. Do any front-runners stumble?
In three House Democratic primaries, there are clear front-runners, based on name recognition and fundraising: Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor in the 1st District, former Rep. Elaine Luria in the 2nd District and former Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th District. Do all three win? Do all three win convincingly? Do all three get a majority rather than a plurality? Luria and Perriello have the advantage of having previously been congressional nominees; Taylor does not have that edge. She also has a seven-candidate field to work her way through. The winner only needs a plurality, not a majority. Just from the sheer size of the field, even a candidate who far outpaces the field may have difficulty getting past 50%. Of note: All seven candidates in that district have filled out our Voter Guide questionnaire. Just look up any of the counties or cities in that district and you’ll find their answers.
3. What do the results tell us about the state of the Democratic Party?
Nationally, we’re watching a tug of war between an establishment center-left and an activist base that’s further left. We’re seeing that most clearly now in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Michigan where Rep. Haley Stevens is currently trailing Abdul El-Sayed in the polls, an outcome that some party leaders fear could toss away a Democratic Senate seat (and which “progressive” elements discount).
The clearest expressions of these tensions in Virginia are in the 1st, 2nd and 8th districts. In each case, though, the so-called “establishment” candidate (Taylor, Luria, Beyer) faces multiple opponents, which helps split the vote. Even if those three win, we’ll want to take a look at the margins.
As for Republicans, it’s harder to spot the differences among the three Senate candidates, although I did call attention to a few in a column last week that highlighted the fault lines in both parties.
4. What does the turnout in the 5th District tell us about the likely Perriello vs. McGuire campaign?
The 5th District has a reliable Republican history, although not overwhelmingly so. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified the 5th as a “targeted” district but it’s usually not mentioned in the same breath as Democratic hopes of flipping the 1st (now held by Republican Rob Wittman) and the 2nd (held by Republican Jen Kiggans). However, the latest campaign finance reports show that Perriello is far outdistancing McGuire in fundraising, with more than three times as much cash on hand. Perriello is an energetic candidate who has experience winning (and losing) in the 5th District (and sometimes a loss is more educational than a victory). Midterms are often unkind to the party in power, which puts Republicans on the defensive generally.
The danger for Republicans — and the opportunity for Democrats — is that Republican voters may be apathetic and Democratic ones are energized. That would create the kind of harmonic convergence that could lead to a Democratic upset in the 5th. The 5th is also the only congressional district in the state where both parties are holding primaries at the same time. That means we’ll be able to compare the total turnout in each one. Whichever party has the lower figure should worry.
5. Will any city council incumbents lose in Roanoke?
Roanoke Democrats have five candidates seeking three nominations for the city council. Two of those five are incumbents: Vivian Sanchez-Jones and Peter Volosin. Roanoke politics seem to be turbulent right now, following the controversies over a proposed casino, school budget cuts and surveillance technology. Volosin also recently clashed with Phazhon Nash, the only Black member on the council, after they came down on different sides of a 4-3 vote on zoning. Volosin told Nash he was “owned” by another council member, which Nash took as a racial remark. Volosin later apologized, but the incident was ill-timed for a candidate for reelection in a city where the Black electorate often holds the balance of power, particularly in Democratic primaries.
Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, recently endorsed two candidates — newcomers Danny Clawson and Raekwon Moore — without mentioning a third. That means he didn’t endorse either incumbent, although didn’t explicitly urge their ouster, either. However, if Democratic voters follow Rasoul’s lead, and opt to use the third vote, they’d have to choose among Sanchez-Jones, Volosin and the fifth candidate, Harvey Brookins.
Multicandidate races are fascinating to follow because there are so many permutations. Some voters may try to give an advantage to their preferred candidate or candidates by only using one or two of their votes — “single-shotting” or “double-shotting” — to deny votes to someone else. Once you overlay that over the racial and geographic and other factors at play — well, it gets complicated fast. I explored some of the dynamics at play in a previous column. On Tuesday night, we’ll be looking at the returns to try to figure out what made the difference, no matter what happens.
For now, if there are any Roanoke Democratic voters still undecided, they can check out the Roanoke page on our Voter Guide to see how the candidates responded to our issues questionnaire. You can also check out this election preview by Cardinal’s Roanoke Valley reporter, Samantha Verrelli.
As for me, I’m going to prep for election night by watching the latest episode of “House of the Dragon,” where the politics are often just as complicated — only with fire-breathing reptiles.
We’ll have lots of politics to talk about this week in West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that contains lots of additional information. It goes out every Friday afternoon. Sign up here:
