Going with the northwest flow: Some storms, a few puffs of smoke, but not all that hot

Say “northwest flow” in the winter and it’s all about Arctic air and mountain snow showers.

In summer, it’s obviously too warm for snow, and quite often, the air mass it is pumping from in the Upper Midwest and southern Canada isn’t really all that cool.

But such a turn in the winds above us in our atmosphere does usually mean it’s not going to be the hottest it can be in mid-summer, or anywhere close.

After some of our coolest days of summer this past weekend amid drizzly cloudiness, the next several days in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virgina look to hit the sweet spot in temperatures between those who want the heat so they can splash in the pool and those who just don’t like really hot weather.

That sweet spot is mostly 80s highs for most of our region, warm enough for outdoor watery fun as July turns the corner into August but not the searing extreme heat we experienced in early July, though warmer than the 70s highs many locations experienced this past weekend.

It appears we have a few dry days the remainder of this week, perhaps into Saturday, before the next significant chance of showers and storms Sunday and early next week.

The late-day sun glows red though a high layer of wildfire smoke, originating in the Pacific Northwest, on Monday, July 27. Photo by Kevin Myatt.

Basically, this will be what we call “near normal” temperatures for late July. Even in our region’s hottest locations in the Roanoke Valley and the lower elevations east of the Blue Ridge, peak summer average high temperatures stay south of the 90-degree mark.

The extreme heat moved out west last week, and is set to rebuild out there in early August. Clockwise rotation around high pressure in the western U.S. is bringing northwest wind flow over our region.

That does lead to occasional troughs and cold fronts sliding through, as happened with Tuesday’s rounds of storms, and we may see that again a few times with this pattern.

What was very likely a funnel cloud appeared over Bedford County during severe storms on Tuesday, July 21. There were no ground reports that would indicate a tornado touched down, but the wall cloud structure, the presence of strong shear or changing of winds with height, and an experienced observer's witnessing of rotation would indicate this was most likely a funnel cloud. Courtesy of Jason Rinehart. — What was very likely a funnel cloud appeared over Bedford County during severe storms on Tuesday, July 21. There were no ground reports that would indicate a tornado touched down, but the wall cloud structure, the presence of strong shear or changing of winds with height, and an experienced observer’s witnessing of rotation would indicate this was most likely a funnel cloud. Courtesy of Jason Rinehart.

The bend of strong upper air flow southward from where it usually resides in the middle of the summer can give storms an extra boost of intensity and even spin, so damaging winds and even a sporadic tornado or two become more possible.

Tornado warnings were issued in Southwest Virginia on Tuesday; unclear at this writing if any touched down, though a video from Burke’s Garden seems pretty convincing at least one did. There were scattered reports of wind damage, extending into northeast Tennessee and western North Carolina.

A tornado-warned storm moving through Southwest Virginia poses a frighteningly dark background, laced with llightning, behind a church in Lebanon on Tuesday, July 28. Courtesy of Billy Bowling. — A tornado-warned storm moving through Southwest Virginia poses a frighteningly dark background, laced with lightning, behind a church in Lebanon on Tuesday, July 28. Courtesy of Billy Bowling.

This particular summer, northwest flow will also mean periodic puffs of wildfire smoke in our skies.

This week, the smoke is originating in Oregon rather than Canada. But that can still get here with wind flow up and over high pressure, diving across the Great Lakes.

The smoke is almost entirely contained to the higher layers of the atmosphere. On Monday, it was a milky haze that turned the sun red, not the smothering surface soot of a couple Fridays ago.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model projection for smoke early Wednesday vividly displays the thickness of smoke moving out the Pacific Northwest across Canada and into the eastern U.S., also showing the northwest flow moving over our region bringing somewhat cooler air than we've seen earlier in the summer, occasional periods of storms, and these plumes of wildfire smoke. Courtesy National Weather Service. — The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model projection for smoke early Wednesday vividly displays the thickness of smoke moving out the Pacific Northwest across Canada and into the eastern U.S., also showing the northwest flow moving over our region bringing somewhat cooler air than we’ve seen earlier in the summer, occasional periods of storms, and these plumes of wildfire smoke. Courtesy National Weather Service.

As summer was beginning, we noted in this space that summers in which El Niño was present or developing tended to be among cooler summers, or at least, not among our very hottest.

Of late, the weather pattern has started to live up to more of that expectation, though we’ve probably been too hot for too long for this summer to fall among the coolest on record.

There is real reason, though, to think it might not be among our few hottest, even if August floats back toward somewhat hotter days at mid-month, as looks possible at this time.

A year ago, a somewhat similar, but more intense, northwest flow pattern suddenly flipped the switch from a hot July to a historically cool August.

August 2025 was Danville’s coolest on record going back to the start of records in 1917, tied for Roanoke’s third coolest, and Lynchburg’s fifth coolest, based on averaging the daily high and low temperatures for all 31 days.

Late in the month, many locations in our region dropped into the 40s, with icebox Burke’s Garden in Tazewell County dipping to 36 on Aug. 27.

We don’t have anything like that on the horizon. But, as the calendar flips this coming weekend, autumn is drawing closer for those who crave leaf-scattering nippy breezes, though we still have some hazy, lazy, crazy dog days to traverse first.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.

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