Democrat Abigail Spanberger enters the final five weeks of the campaign with more than three times as much money to spend as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.
That cash advantage of 3.2-1 comes despite Earle-Sears having her best fundraising period yet in September, according to campaign finance reports that were released Thursday.
They show campaign dollars flowing freely to almost all Democrats in key races. The Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general — Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones — have more money to spend than their Republican opponents, John Reid and Jason Miyares, although Jones’ financial advantage over Miyares is a thin one.
In the 18 House races targeted by one of the parties, Democrats outraised Republicans in all but one during September — that lone exception is House District 41 in parts of Montgomery and Roanoke counties, where Republican incumbent Chris Obenshain took in more money than Democratic challenger Lily Franklin. Nonetheless, Franklin still has more cash available for the final stretch of the campaign. She’s not alone. In 13 of those 18 targeted races, the Democratic candidate has the most money available to spend in the final weeks.
Before we dive deeper into these numbers, I have two important notes:
The first is my usual reminder that money doesn’t always determine political outcomes. It certainly helps, of course, but it’s not the only thing that matters.
The second is that these finance reports cover the month of September, which means they don’t reflect any fundraising impacts from Jay Jones’ text messages or last week’s gubernatorial debate — and certainly not Thursday night’s debate in the attorney general’s race. We won’t be able to see that until Oct. 27, when the next round of campaign finance reports (from Oct. 1-23) come due, by which point we’ll be almost a week out from the election. We expect to see some polls come out before then but it’s always easy for one side or another to dismiss an unfavorable poll; there’s nothing like the hard numbers on a campaign finance report — although in the end, the numbers that really matter are the election returns.
Governor: Spanberger continues to dominate financially
Total amount raised: Spanberger $40,636,788; Earle-Sears $16,811,733
September: Spanberger $12,576,750; Earle-Sears $9,145,682
Cash on hand: Spanberger: $5,370,543; Earle-Sears $1,632,606
You see three sets of numbers above. Here’s what they mean.
The “total amount raised” is the total amount raised over the entirety of the campaign; this shows overall fundraising prowess. The Spanberger campaign has been a disciplined organization in all aspects, fundraising among them. By contrast, the Earle-Sears campaign has been chaotic (multiple leadership changes) and decidedly unconventional — she’s issued no position papers, she’s avoided meeting with key business groups that would be friendly toward a Republican (and perhaps open their wallets), she’s gone long stretches without talking to Virginia-based journalists. Sometimes it’s been hard to tell that there is an Earle-Sears campaign. The fundraising disparity here reflects the relative strengths of the two campaigns, organizationally speaking.
The September figures, which just came out, help us get a sense of momentum — is one candidate picking up or slowing down? Earle-Sears just had her best reporting period yet, raising nearly twice what she did all summer. Nonetheless, she still raised less than Spanberger.
Cash on hand is always my favorite category because it speaks to a campaign’s capability. Maybe the money spent up until now was frittered away on things that didn’t work; we have no idea yet — but cash on hand can translate directly into advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts. Even with early voting, the vast majority of votes aren’t cast until later in the process. Here we see that Spanberger has more than triple what Earle-Sears has. That explains why I constantly hear Spanberger ads when I listen to Spotify, even though I listen to a lot of country music, which definitely isn’t a Democratic demographic.
Lieutenant governor: Hashmi has almost 8 times as much money as Reid
Total amount raised: Hashmi: $4,868,265; Reid $814,525
September: Hashmi $1,433,750; Reid $451,580
Cash on hand: Hashmi $3,086,550; Reid $388,071
For the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, I find the “total amount raised” line less significant because it includes the money that the two Democratic nominees had to raise to win their respective June primaries. Because of that, I’m much more focused on the other two lines.
The main theme, financially, in the lieutenant governor’s race is Reid’s poverty. There are 16 House of Delegates candidates who raised more money in September than he did and five who have more money in the bank than he does.
Attorney general: Jones and Miyares nearly tied financially
Total amount raised: Miyares $20,330,566; Jones $10,955,325
September: Miyares $3,519,476; Jones $3,300,615
Cash on hand: Jones $3,465,719; Miyares $3,384,979
Attorney General Jason Miyares is the financial bright spot for Republicans — but the big news here may be that Jones now has more money available than Miyares. It’s not a big advantage, so may not be significant, but he does have a smidge more money. What we don’t know, of course, is how the text message scandal will factor into this race — and the fundraising.
An NBC analysis of campaign spending from Oct. 8-14 — after the period in these campaign finance reports — shows that Republicans are now using two-thirds of their ad money in the state to focus on Jones, no matter what race the ad is in.
Also of note: Over the course of the campaign, Miyares has outraised his party’s candidate for governor. That speaks both to Miyares’ organizational strength and to Earle-Sears’ lack of the same.
House of Delegates: Democrats have outraised Republicans in 17 of 18 key races, have the most money in 12
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage in the House; the Senate, which Democrats control 21-19, isn’t up for election this year.
Democrats have officially targeted 14 Republican-held House seats, but two of those in the urban crescent. In 13 of those 14 districts, the Democratic candidates raised the most money in September; the Franklin-Obenshain contest is the exception. In 10 of those 14 districts, the Democrat has more cash on hand than the Republican going into the final month. That’s up from five races in the previous report where Democrats had a cash advantage.
Here are the 10 Republican-held districts where Democrats have more money:
HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman $404,664, Ian Lovejoy $220,874
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin $213,373, Chris Obenshain $180,170
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): May Nivar $308,883, David Owen $162,078
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll $215,929, Paul Milde $171,008
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey $135,331, Chad Green $90,216
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta $219,107, Mark Earley Jr. $107,931
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Lindsey Dougherty $362,242, Carrie Coyner $284,311
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams $353,920, Kim Taylor $83,367
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): Virgil Thornton $236,270, A.C.Cordoza $90,247
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie $309,786, Mike Lamonea $111,971
The first thing I notice is how unbalanced some of these races are, with Democrats often having far more money than Republicans. Guzman and Nivar have almost twice as much as the Republican incumbents they’re challenging; Mehta has more than twice as much as her opponent. Thornton has 2.6 times as much as his rival. Carnegie has 2.7 times as much as her opponent — and then there’s Adams, who has 4.24 times as much as the Republican incumbent she’s running against. While I keep saying money isn’t the only thing that matters, these are still big advantages for these Democratic candidates.
In four Republican-held districts that Democrats are targeting, the Republican has more money, but the only place where the Republican advantage is substantial is in the Payton-Wilt race in the Harrisonburg area, where Wilt has nearly four times as much money in the bank.
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): Geary Higgins $187,479, John McAuliff $174,012
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Tony Wilt $230,215, Andrew Payton $60,179
HD 66 (Caroline): Bobby Orrock $178,043, Nicole Cole $155,276
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Amanda Batten $331,884, Jessica Anderson $221,620
The Republicans, playing defense, have focused on four Democratic-held districts where they think incumbents might be vulnerable. The Democrats have outraised Republicans in all four and have cash advantages in three:
HD 21 (Prince William): Josh Thomas $129,717, Gregory Gorham $937 (Yes, just $937).
HD 84 (Suffolk): Nadarius Clark $126,987, Felisha Storm $61,117
HD 97 (Virginia Beach) Michael Feggans $262,652, Tim Anderson $122,201
The only GOP-targeted district where the Republican has a cash advantage is this one:
HD 65 (Fredericksburg area): Sean Steinway $126,688, Joshua Cole $102,873
Some of the amounts pouring into House races are staggering. Dougherty raised more money in September for a single district than Hashmi did for a statewide race ($1,556,083 for Dougherty compared to Hashmi’s $1,433,750). Adams and Carnegie came close, bringing in $1.3 million and $1.2 million respectively. Feggans raised just over $1 million. Nivar came in just under the $1 million mark with $947,232. In a single month. All those amounts are more than Reid has raised in the entirety of his campaign for lieutenant governor.
If Democrats pick up seats, their financial advantage will surely be cited as a reason why. If they don’t, these finance reports will stand as a testament to how money doesn’t always make the difference. If you want to know more about these candidates, go to our Voter Guide and look up your locality. All the statewide candidates and many of the House candidates have responded to our issues questionnaire. And if you think some of these amounts are an outrage, consider this: Some of these candidates have raised more in a month than we do in an entire year. If you’d like to help guarantee independent journalism in Virginia, you can click here and become a Cardinal News member. Heck, you can even buy a Cardinal News bumper sticker in our merch store.
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