Virginia Democrats enter the summer with a towering cash advantage over Republicans in many key races.
Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, has almost five times as much cash on hand as her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears.
Two of the Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor have four times as much money as Republican nominee John Reid; two others have more than twice as much, although it’s unclear how much money any of those Democrats will still have once next week’s June 17 primary is over.
Of the 25 legislative candidates with the most money, 15 are Democrats, 10 are Republicans. In some of the key districts that will be closely contested this fall, the gap is even more pronounced. In House District 41, which covers parts of Montgomery and Roanoke counties, Democratic challenger Lily Franklin has more than three times as much money as Republican incumbent Chris Obenshain. In House District 82 in the Petersburg area, Democratic challenger Kimberly Pope Adams has more than eight times as much money as Republican incumbent Kim Taylor.
The most notable exception to this Democratic deluge of money is Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, who has more than 4.5 times as much cash on hand as the best-funded Democratic contender — with the Democrats still having to spend money to compete in the primary.
Those are the numbers contained in the most recent campaign finance reports, which were filed this week. They don’t paint a pretty picture for Republicans — less than six months before the election and only about four months before early voting begins.
Before we go further, I must issue my customary advisory: Money isn’t everything. Sometimes candidates with the most money lose. The real key is whether a candidate has enough money to get their message out. However, in an off-year election (and history shows only about half of Virginia’s registered voters will bother to cast ballots this fall), having the money to reach your potential supporters and get them to the polls is important.
There are also different ways to count campaign money. We can count total raised to date, which measures a campaign’s overall fundraising prowess. We can look at total raised in the most recent reporting period, which does offer some sense of momentum. However, I often prefer to look at cash on hand. Maybe a candidate has spent their money wisely; maybe they’ve squandered it. We really don’t know until we see the election results. However, cash on hand seems much clearer — this is how much the campaigns have available to spend. With that, let’s go through these numbers.
Governor: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears in every way possible
Overall, Spanberger has raised more than Earle-Sears: $19.1 million to $9.1 million.
In the most recent reporting period, which covers April 1 to June 5, Spanberger has raised $6.5 million, Earle-Sears $3.5 million.
And when it comes to what’s in the bank, Spanberger has the biggest advantage: She’s got $14.3 million of her haul still left to spend, Earle-Sears just $2.9 million.
I cannot emphasize enough what an imbalance this is. Usually both parties’ candidates for governor are pretty evenly matched. Four years ago, Democrat Terry McAuliffe wound up spending $69.3 million, Republican Glenn Youngkin $68.1 million. Maybe Republicans can help Earle-Sears make up this fundraising gap as the campaign goes on, but for now this seems a staggering difference.
It’s all the more remarkable in that Earle-Sears had a head start. She’s spent four years as lieutenant governor, and the unofficial job of lieutenant governor is to run for governor. Spanberger, by contrast, didn’t start running for governor until late 2023. Both had to fend off some possible challengers, but neither faced a primary to drain their resources. Earle-Sears, as lieutenant governor, did have to go through a “black-out” period for fundraising during the General Assembly, something the out-of-office Spanberger did not have to endure. Still, by this point, the two candidates’ fundraising totals should be more evenly matched and they’re not. This ought to cause Republicans some heartburn.
Lieutenant governor: Stoney raises the most overall; Hashmi has the most cash on hand, with Rouse close behind
Democrats have six candidates running in the primary. Four of them (Ghazala Hashmi, Babur Lateef, Aaron Rouse, Levar Stoney) have a lot more money than the other two (Alex Bastani and Victor Salgado). As for who’s in the best position financially, that depends on how you count things.
Over the course of the campaign, Stoney (the former mayor of Richmond) has raised the most: $2.1 million. Aaron Rouse (a state senator from Virginia Beach) is second with $1.8 million, followed by Hashmi (a state senator from Chesterfield County) with just under $1.8 million and Lateef (chair of the Prince William County school board) at $1.3 million. Bastani (a lawyer from Falls Church) is way back at $276,157 and Salgado (a former federal prosecutor from Arlington) is in last place at $220,770. Barring some miraculous political story, this seems to be a four-way race with six candidates.
If we look at the most recent reporting period, Hashmi has raised the most: $742,480 for her compared to $702,232 for Stoney, $660,180 for Rouse and $374,463 for Lateef. Hashmi’s campaign says this shows momentum is on her side. Perhaps it is, but that advantage doesn’t seem conclusive to me.
Like I said, I’m more moved by cash on hand. Hashmi has $461,729, Rouse $452,041, Lateef $262,981, Stoney $258,403. History suggests that about half the votes in the Democratic primary will be cast through early voting, the other half on June 17. These numbers tell me that Hashmi and Rouse are in the best position to use their money in the final push — although it’s possible that Lateef and Stoney simply used their money early to set in motion the things they’ll be doing. If Hashmi or Rouse win, we’ll point to these figures as one of the tactical reasons why. If Stoney wins, we’ll point to his overall fundraising advantage as a factor. If Lateef wins, we’ll need to find something other than money to explain the outcome.
Rouse, by the way, benefited this week from what’s called “earned media” in the political business. As chair of the Senate Privileges and Elections Committee, he called a meeting of the committee on Monday so the panel could vote along party lines to block some of Youngkin’s appointees to the governing boards of state universities. This could have been done some other time, but Rouse timed it for maximum attention, just a week and a day before the primary.
Reid, the Republican nominee, has $116,373 in the bank, less than any of the top four Democrats in this race. Of course, we don’t know how much the winner will have once the primary is done. Nobody wants to lose a close race and have money left over that they wished they’d spent. Here we may want to look more at fundraising ability than cash on hand, since the Democrat, whoever he or she is, may have to spend down that cash. Overall, Reid has raised $311,876. That’s not all that much more than Bastani’s total. Of the four best-funded Democrats, the least-funded of those (Lateef) has raised more than four times than what Reid has. The best-funded (Stoney) has raised 6.75 times as much.
Attorney general: Jones and Taylor nearly tied for cash but Miyares waits with much more
The Democratic primary between former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor has turned into something of a proxy battle between two donors: Clean Virginia for Jones and Dominion Energy for Taylor.
Over the course of the campaign, Jones has outraised Taylor — $2.7 million to $2.1 million.
As June began, they both had about the same amount of money in the bank: $492,757 for Jones, $469,816 for Taylor.
Now, here’s where things get interesting: Since April, the Dominion PAC has given Taylor $550,000. If you count prior donations, Taylor has received $650,000 from Dominion-related donors.
Meanwhile, over the past two years, Clean Virginia has given Jones $547,876. That’s comparable to the $525,000 it gave Jones during his unsuccessful 2021 primary for attorney general.
There are those who don’t think candidates should be taking money from state-regulated utilities; there are those who don’t think candidates should be taking money from big donors, period. All that is now playing out in what had, until now, seemed a pretty low-key contest.
Regardless of who wins, the winner will face a well-funded Republican incumbent: Miyares has raised $4.2 million to date and has $2.3 million of that still in hand. For what it’s worth, the Dominion PAC gave Miyares $300,000 in the most recent period.
(Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors, but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy. You, too, can be a donor. Here’s how.)
House of Delegates: Democrats hold big advantages over Republicans in four, maybe five, key districts
Two years ago, Virginia had 16 House of Delegates races where the winner finished with less than 55% of the vote. Three of those went to Democrats, 13 to Republicans. In those 16 close districts, Democrats have the most cash in nine, Republicans in seven. That may not seem like much of a difference — it’s not — until you look at some of the specific numbers.
First, none of the Republican cash leaders are in Democratic-held districts; these are all Republicans defending Republican-held seats — and you’d generally expect the incumbent to have the most money. By contrast, three of those Democrats with the most money are challengers, or one is a Democrat running for an open seat currently held by a Republican. Financially speaking, Democrats are on offense in four close districts now held by Republicans while Republicans are playing defense — even though it ought to be the other way around. Democrats hold a 51-49 advantage in the House. If Republicans want to win a majority, they need to flip some seats, but their candidates are not outraising the Democrats who ought to be easiest to oust. Instead, if money were votes (and I repeat, it’s not), Democrats would be the ones gaining even more ground.
These are the four Republican-held districts where Democrats currently have a big financial advantage:
House District 22: Part of Prince William County (Ian Lovejoy)
Two years ago, Republican Ian Lovejoy won here with 52.19% of the vote.This year, he’s being challenged by former Del. Elizabeth Guzman. She has $200,685, Lovejoy $44,663.
House District 41: Parts of Montgomery and Roanoke counties (Chris Obenshain)
Two years ago, Republican Chris Obenshain defeated Democrat Lily Franklin by just 183 votes. This year, there’s a rematch, but it’s not close in money. Franklin has $298,517 on hand, Obenshain $94,354.
House District 82: Petersburg, Surry County, parts of Dinwiddie and Prince George counties (Kim Taylor)
Two years ago, this was the closest race in the state, with Republican Kim Taylor winning by just 78 votes over Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams. As with the Obenshain-Franklin race above, this district has another rematch, but it’s not close money-wise. Adams has $289,468, Taylor $34,502.
House District 89: Parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk (Baxter Ennis)
Republican Baxter Ennis won here last time with 50.7% of the vote. He’s now retiring, so this open seat will be hotly contested. At the moment, there are two-candidate primaries underway in both parties, so we don’t know yet who the general election candidates will be. However, one of the Democratic candidates has more money than the two Republicans combined. Democrat Karen Carnegie has $78,207; her primary opponent, Blaizen Buckshot Bloom, has just $2,914. On the Republican side, Mike Lamonea has $17,756, Kristen Shannon $12,951.
A Democratic challenger is also outraising a Republican incumbent in a fifth district that wasn’t particularly close two years ago. In House District 86 (Poquoson, parts of Hampton and York County), Republican A.C. Cordoza won with 56.35% of the vote. Democrats have always thought they should be able to win this district — it’s one Kamala Harris narrowly carried in last year’s presidential election. Right now, the Democratic challenger to Cordoza, Virgil Gene Thornton Sr., has $73,065 to $33,136 for Cordoza.
By contrast, in some of the Republican districts where the incumbent has more money, it’s sometimes not a big advantage. In House District 71 (Williamsburg, parts of James City County and New Kent County), where Republican Amanda Batten won with 51.61% of the vote over Democrat Jessica Anderson, there’s another rematch. Batten has $276,669; Anderson $235,669. That’s pretty close, just like the election two years ago.
An open seat in Southwest: Tolbert raises the most, but Cornett has the most cash left
One of the most fascinating races this primary season has been for the Republican nomination in House District 46 — Grayson County, Smyth County, Wythe County and part of Pulaski County. Del. Jed Arnold, R-Smyth County, is retiring. Given the deep red hue of this district, the Republican primary is tantamount to election.
Adam Tolbert, a community college administrator from Smyth County, has the longest list of endorsements (starting with the governor) and has raised the most money: $56,294. However, Mitchell Cornett, a farmer and Grayson County supervisor, has raised $33,575 and waged a spirited campaign. As of this report, Cornett has the most still to spend — $22,972 to Tolbert’s $6,132. That’s potentially significant because in that district, about three-fourths of the votes will likely be cast on June 17. Cornett has made a point of criticizing Appalachian Power for its utility rates and has said he’s the only candidate not “bought and paid for” by utilities. However, the only utility donation I see on Tolbert’s report is $2,500 from Dominion Energy — a long way from the six-figure amounts given to Taylor and Miyares in the attorney general’s race.
An open seat in Southside: Whittle and Miller have money leads
Del. Danny Marshall, R-Danville, is retiring, creating an open seat in House District 49, which covers Danville and parts of Halifax and Pittsylvania counties.
Republican Madison Whittle, a member of the Danville City Council, has put more than $60,000 of his own money into his campaign, plus another $30,000 from his city council campaign. Overall, he’s raised $121,914. As of early June, he still had $27,037 in the bank. His opponent, Vanessa Scearce, had $2,599 cash.
On the Democratic side, Gary Miller, another member of the Danville City Council, had $9,665 in the bank while his opponent, Jasmine Lipscomb, had $218.
If all this talk of money is leaving you woozy about all this cash sloshing around the political world, have no fear. I have just the antidote: You can help make sure Cardinal has the resources to cover all these campaigns. Here’s how to become a Cardinal News member. And if you’re still wondering who to vote for in Tuesday’s primary (or the early voting still going on through Saturday), you can see how the candidates answered our questionnaire on our Voter Guide.
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