Virginia Republicans have a lot of challenges going into the 2025 statewide elections: An electorate that has generally (though not always) tilted Democratic. A long-standing historical trend of Virginians electing a governor from whatever party isn’t in control in Washington. Donald Trump in the White House, when that led to record Democratic victories last time. A playing field where eight Republican-held House of Delegates seats are in districts that voted Democratic last year and could do so again this fall.
There are two big things, though, that Republicans thought they had in their favor: Glenn Youngkin has been a popular governor, and the party’s ticket was nominated early, without acrimony.
Now, at least one of those advantages has been blown to bits — and the party’s candidate for lieutenant governor, John Reid, is now embroiled in a very public dispute with Youngkin, to the point that over the weekend Reid threatened legal action against some of Youngkin’s political advisers.
Just when we think we’ve seen everything, we find out we haven’t.
To recap the action: Earlier this month, Reid posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that “two local religious activists” had contacted him to warn that “there were photos that would destroy my life and I would never work in all of America again and it was in my best interest to drop out of the race for lieutenant governor.” He said the next day that he was presented with three photos showing him at a drag show. Reid, who is openly gay and has never denied attending drag shows, which he says “are not for kids,” said nothing more.
Last week, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, the other candidate for the party’s nomination for lieutenant governor, unexpectedly dropped out of the race, citing health issues. That made Reid the party’s default nominee.
On Thursday night, Youngkin called Reid to tell him that Republican “researchers” had found a social media site they believed was Reid’s that had for years posted photos of nude male models, many of them sexually explicit, and he told Reid he should withdraw from the race. Reid refused, saying the social media account — which the Wayback Machine, an internet archive, shows has existed since at least 2014 — was run by someone who had copied his standard online screen name.
On Friday afternoon, The Richmonder news site broke this news, unleashing a controversy whose resolution is now quite unclear. On Saturday, in his first campaign appearance after the news broke, Reid was greeted warmly by Republican activists in one of the most conservative parts of the state — Southwest Virginia. On Sunday, things escalated even more. Reid posted a video statement in which he accused an unnamed Youngkin political adviser of offering to “purchase” the “opposition research” and cease attacks on Reid if he dropped out of the race. Reid called this “extortion” and threatened legal action against those “solely motivated to stage a coup against a gay man who they didn’t want to be their nominee and didn’t have the guts to run against.”
We now have this untenable situation: Youngkin wants Reid out, but there’s no mechanism, either in the party rules or state law, to remove him as the Republican nominee. The party’s nominee for governor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has been noticeably silent on the matter. She was scheduled to appear with Reid in Abingdon on Saturday, but didn’t show. She blamed weather, although skies across Virginia were generally clear except for some scattered thunderstorms. A unity rally with the three Republican candidates — Earle-Sears for governor, Reid for lieutenant governor, Jason Miyares for attorney general — set for Wednesday in Henrico County has been canceled.
So, what are we to make of all this? Here are 10 points to consider.
1. Conspiracy theories abound but seem wrong.
Consider this a new rule: For every action, no matter how obvious, there are conspiracy theories to explain it. In this case, some on social media have claimed that Youngkin wants Reid out because he’s gay. That ignores the fact that on April 21, after Herrity dropped out and Reid became the nominee, Youngkin posted: “I spoke with John tonight and know he is ready to work with @winwithwinsome and@JasonMiyaresVA to keep Virginia the best state for business, to back the blue, and to stand strong for parents.” If Youngkin had reservations about Reid’s sexual orientation then, he likely wouldn’t have done that. Others claim that Youngkin wants Reid out because Reid is “MAGA.” That ignores Youngkin’s own embrace of Trump.
The simplest explanation is that Youngkin saw the photos on the disputed Tumblr site and felt that this would be a political distraction that would hurt the Republican ticket. Feel free to think whatever you want in terms of any morality involved here, but from a political point of view, Youngkin is right: These allegations would have come out anyway and are a distraction from the main Republican duty of trying to win November’s election. Just how big a distraction they are, well, keep reading.
2. Republicans are split, but we really don’t really know what they think.
It’s no secret that some evangelicals, a key part of the Republican base, have been uneasy about the party nominating a gay man. The allegation that a site using Reid’s screen name has been posting nude photos of men for at least 11 years — and, again, Reid denies that this was him — elevates that concern.
Family Foundation Action, the political arm of the Family Foundation, called on Reid to drop out. So did the influential conservative radio talk show host John Fredericks and former Rep. Bob Good.
However, the Loudoun County Republican Committee rallied behind Reid and is now selling “In John Reid We Trust” T-shirts and mugs. On Monday, the chairman of the Arlington County Republicans sent out a newsletter backing Reid. “I thought it prudent to poll members of the Committee to see where you stand on the headlines from over the weekend,” Matthew Hurtt wrote. “More than two-thirds of respondents believe John should stay in the race, and an even greater percentage of respondents indicated you would vote for John in November.”
What we have here could well be a cultural split within the party, although if so, that split is not clear-cut. As Cardinal reported over the weekend, Reid appeared in one of the most conservative parts of the state and won applause from Republicans in Washington County — and the backing of Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem.
The reality is that we simply don’t know what Virginia Republicans think. While Republicans in Arlington and Loudoun County have taken to social media to declare their support of Reid, they appear to be the only ones. In any case, social media represents only a sliver of public opinion, no matter what the topic is. In my calls to Republicans, particularly those in Southwest and Southside, the main response has been a keen desire not to talk on the record. One exception was state Sen. David Suetterlein, R-Roanoke County, who voiced support for Reid: “There was an open process and John Reid is our GOP nominee. The party has a ticket at a historically early moment on the calendar and we should be talking about how Virginia GOP leadership means more economic opportunity, lower taxes, and safer streets. The burden of proof for any of these accusations rests on those making them.”
3. We’re not hearing a chorus of Republicans calling for Reid to quit.
In one of the Sherlock Holmes stories, the detective deduces who committed the theft of a famous race horse based on “the dog that didn’t bark” — meaning if a stranger had abducted the horse, the dog would have barked, but since the dog didn’t, that must mean the dog recognized the thief. A similar principle applies here: We’re not seeing Republicans rush to denounce Reid and tell him he should quit the race. The Republican dogs are not barking. Youngkin stands virtually alone, at least publicly. Depending on your point of view, that might constitute brave, courageous leadership, but it might also suggest a lack of political coordination. When the governor’s phone call failed to dislodge Reid, there doesn’t seem to have been a Plan B in place.
Contrast all this with the parade of Democrats who called on President Joe Biden to quit the presidential race last year about his disastrous debate performance. We’re not seeing that kind of groundswell for Reid to drop out.
4. Youngkin may have put himself in some political jeopardy.
Youngkin has been a pretty popular figure within Republican ranks, and for good reason: He restored the party to the governorship and has appeared to unite all ranks of a fractious party. The most recent Roanoke College poll (in February) showed that 85% of Republicans approve of the job he’s done as governor.
Now we’re starting to see some internal criticism of Youngkin for trying to force Reid out. In his weekly newsletter, the Arlington Republican chairman wrote: “In politics, success is measured in part from the strength of the organization you leave behind once you leave your leadership post. If this is how the Governor’s political operation wants to close out his term in Richmond — by tossing a grenade into the statewide Republican ticket — it’s truly a shame.” That wording does include some nuance — “the governor’s political operation” rather than the governor himself — but some Republican commenters online aren’t so nuanced. The governor made the call to Reid, so this isn’t a case of political operatives freelancing without the governor’s knowledge.
Ralph Waldo Emerson famously said: “When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” The same applies to lieutenant governor candidates, too, it seems. Youngkin has struck at Reid but so far failed to remove him. That creates an awkward situation, discussed more below. If Reid stays on the ticket, how can Youngkin ever appear with him or speak on his behalf?
5. Reid has a core of support that he’s built up over the years and that will help him.
While many Virginians are learning who Reid is for the first time, there is a significant core of the Republican Party that knows very well who Reid is — and that may help him weather this political turbulence. Reid is best-known as a conservative talk radio show host in Richmond. That’s helped him build a fan base and, when he still had competition for the nomination, he picked up endorsements from two former Virginia governors, George Allen and Jim Gilmore. More importantly, while Reid has made no secret of his sexual identity, his political identity is that of a hardcore conservative. If Reid were some centrist or some unknown figure, this controversy might be playing out differently. However, within party circles, Reid’s conservative credentials are very much in order. Both parties like fighters. If Reid can spin this as him standing up and fighting back against “the establishment,” that may play very well indeed — even if that establishment is the party’s own popular governor. On the other hand …
6. The damage may already have been done.
There are potentially multiple levels to this controversy, depending on your point of view. Let’s ask the question this way: What’s the biggest problem for Republicans here?
Is it that Reid is gay?
Is it that there are photos of Reid attending a drag show?
Is it that there was a social media account (which Reid denies is his) using Reid’s screen name that as far back as 2014 was sharing nude photos of men?
Or is it that there’s now an open break between the governor and his party’s candidate for lieutenant governor?
For some Republicans, the first three questions might be a problem. For others of a more libertarian point of view, the first three are irrelevant. However, the fourth is a problem regardless of what you think of the first three. The prolonged silence of the party’s candidate for governor, Earle-Sears, isn’t helping the matter, either. She’s got the most at stake here if the Republican ticket gets undermined, be it by Reid’s presence or his withdrawal. Even if you think Youngkin’s position is wrong, he’s at least taken one.
7. It’s unclear how this ends.
There seem to be only three ways:
Youngkin relents, and leads the party to rally around Reid and the rest of the ticket. That sure looks unlikely right now.
Reid relents and quits the ticket. That also looks unlikely right now.
Nothing gets resolved and Republicans go forward with a ticket where the three candidates can’t or won’t appear together. That seems the worst of the three options. The summer and fall will bring a parade of party events where all three candidates will be expected. If Earle-Sears, for instance, tries to avoid being seen with Reid, that might be difficult and the dance to avoid such meetups could get increasingly awkward.
That’s why the best political advice might have been what William Shakespeare had Macbeth say as he debated whether to assassinate King Duncan: “If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly.” The point being: Whatever they decide to do, it’s in Republicans’ best interest to resolve this quickly.
8. Youngkin has no real leverage over Reid.
Youngkin has already shot his best shot: Employing the bully pulpit of the governor’s office. Unfortunately for Youngkin, he’s finding out what many of his predecessors have under different circumstances: A lame-duck governor in his final year doesn’t always have the influence he thought he did.
Who would have leverage over Reid? Maybe no one. If he wants to stay as the party’s nominee, he stays. Republicans could try to starve him out by not giving money to his campaign, but who does that hurt? It hurts Reid, but also hurts the whole ticket.
Republicans could try to appeal to Reid’s sense of party loyalty and make the case that his presence on the ticket hurts the chances of fellow Republican candidates across the state, but he’s already rejected that analysis. Further, I refer you back to point three above: Nationally, many Democrats last year wanted Biden out because they thought he would hurt their reelection chances. We have yet to hear Virginia Republicans who will be on the ballot this year say they want Reid out because they think he’ll hurt their chances. If Republican candidates who might be vulnerable anyway aren’t calling for Reid to quit, why should he listen to the governor who won’t be on the ballot?
9. This controversy gives both Trump and Youngkin an “out” if Republicans lose this year.
The early polls show Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Earle-Sears. Let’s say that continues: A large Democratic victory in Virginia would be read nationally as a repudiation of Trump, even if it’s decided solely on state issues. A Democratic victory would also make Youngkin’s win look like something of a fluke; that will not help any national ambitions Youngkin might have. On the other hand, this controversy, regardless of how it plays out, will give both Trump and Youngkin an excuse if Democrats win: This wasn’t about me, this was about a flawed ticket.
10. We will see more of these sorts of situations in the years to come.
Again, Reid denies that the social media site that posted photos of nude models is his. However, let’s suppose it is. Would that make a difference? Social media sites have now been around for 28 years (SixDegrees, founded in 1997 and shuttered in 2000, was considered the first). As time goes by, we’re going to see more and more political candidates whose social media history may be somewhat less than flattering. Either a lot of people have already been disqualified by something they posted or we’re going to see standards change. Youngkin’s political instincts may be absolutely right for a man of 58, but we may see future generations who simply shrug at certain behavior online. How Virginians react here may not be a perfect guide, but it will tell us something.
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