Virginia High School League logo.
Virginia High School League logo.

OK, these aren’t the most important numbers of the week, but the Virginia High School football season is in the final stages of the 2024 campaign, so why not go deep inside the math.

The Week 10 VHSL Rating Scale numbers follow, but first let’s examine the potential scenarios in eight Western Virginia regions.

The polls close Saturday with the weekend’s final games.

The VHSL will release its playoff pairings over the weekend.

REGION 5C: Fleming and Matoaca both undefeated

William Fleming has a solid shot to keep the No. 1 seed in the city of Roanoke after Patrick Henry took the spot in 2023. A lot of good it did the Patriots, who were upset by No. 8 Fleming in the first round. The Colonels need a win over Staunton River on Friday and a favorable outcome or two in other games to stay ahead of No. 2 Matoaca. There is a possibility of a tie between the two unbeaten teams. Matoaca will be No. 2 at worst. Midlothian needs a win over L.C. Bird to lock up the No. 3 spot. Otherwise, fast-charging Louisa County is poised to move up from No. 4. Hermitage would like to move up, but the Panthers need to worry more about getting passed by L.C. Bird, which would happen if the Skyhawks defeat Midlothian. Patrick Henry-Roanoke sits at No. 7, but it’s possible the Patriots could pass Hermitage or Bird if either loses on Friday. Patrick Henry does need a win over Hidden Valley to ensure a playoff berth. Douglas Freeman and Prince George are battling for a spot. Prince George would need a victory over Hopewell and several other games to fall its way in order to pass Freeman, which concluded its regular season last week.

REGION 4D: Another tie between Salem and Jefferson Forest?

Don’t look now, but we could be headed for another tie between Salem and Jefferson Forest. If it happens as it did in 2023 it would not be for the No. 1 spot, however. George Washington, JF and Sherando have a shot at No. 1. JF holds the edge, but only if the Cavaliers become the first team to hand unbeaten Liberty Christian its first loss in two years. GW needs a victory over winless Tunstall and a loss by JF to outpoint the Cavaliers. Sherando can get big points for a win over John Handley (8-1), but it probably would not be enough to move past George Washington. Salem appears safe to get a top-four spot and a first-round home game with a win over Blacksburg. The Spartans could even move all the way up to No. 2 if everything goes their way. The Sherando-Handley loser will finish behind Salem if the Spartans win Friday. E.C. Glass is lurking at No. 7. The Hilltoppers could move up to No. 5 with a win over Rustburg and a loss by Handley. A win by Orange County over 0-9 Charlottesville should be enough to earn Orange either the No. 6 or No. 7 spot. Mecklenburg County is No. 8 for now, but a loss to Magna Vista and a victory by James Wood over Millbrook would give James Wood a spot. James Wood could move past E.C. Glass also if the Hilltoppers lose to Rustburg. The big news in Class 4 is that the VHSL has changed its semifinal brackets. The Region D champion will play the Region A champion, while Region B winner will take on Region C winner.

REGION 3C: Liberty Christian has clinched No. 1 seed

This region is super competitive with all sorts of possibilities. One certainty is that reigning Class 3 state champion Liberty Christian has clinched the No. 1 seed. Intrigue follows, however, as unbeatens Alleghany and Turner Ashby have a very, very strong chance to finish tied for the No. 2 spot. Since they fared equally against their common opponents, a tie would likely be determined by which team’s 10 opponents had a higher combined VHSL Rating Scale average. Alleghany finishes with Floyd County, while TA plays Spotswood, a team that knocked off the Knights in 2023. Heritage-Lynchburg can clinch at least the No. 4 spot with a win over Brookville. The Pioneers could move by Alleghany or Turner Ashby if either stumbles. Rustburg looks like a shoo-in at No. 5. A win over Glass likely would not be enough to move the Red Devils past Heritage, even if the Pioneers lose to Brookville. Staunton holds the No. 6 spot for now. A victory over winless Waynesboro might be enough for the Storm to secure the No. 7 spot, but it’s not a certainty. Wilson Memorial would pass Staunton with a win over Stuarts Draft. That leaves Broadway, Monticello and Spotswood contending for a lone spot. Spotswood can get the No. 8 spot but it would take a win over Turner Ashby. Otherwise, Broadway looks to have a slight edge over Monticello going into Friday’s games.

REGION 3D: Abingdon can wrap up No. 1 seed with a win

The rest of Region 3D has been waiting for Abingdon to stumble down the stretch. Hasn’t happened yet as the Falcons took care of Ridgeview and Union, and now they can wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win at home over Lee. Magna Vista has recovered from a season-opening loss to Staunton River and can grab at least the No. 2 spot with a win over Mecklenburg County. Lord Botetourt looks good for the No. 3 spot if the Cavaliers finish with a victory over Franklin County. If Botetourt loses to Franklin County, William Byrd could move up to No. 3 with a win over Northside. Speaking of the Vikings, who had them pegged for a top-four spot before the 2024 season began? Northside could grab the No. 4 seed by defeating Byrd. Christiansburg is idle, but the Blue Demons could pass Northside at No. 5. Carroll County needs a win at Glenvar on Friday in the worst way. The Cavaliers are currently No. 7, but there is no guarantee they will remain No. 7 or even settle for No. 8. Idle Bassett and Staunton River could make things interesting for Carroll County, even if Staunton River is not able to pull off what would be a stunning upset of unbeaten William Fleming. Carroll, Bassett and Staunton River could be separated by razor-thin margins when the smoke clears.

REGION 2C: Glenvar one win away from clinching No. 1

Glenvar has been in control of the No. 1 spot all season, and the Highlanders can nail it down with a win Friday at home over Carroll County. Reigning Class 2 state champ Radford hasn’t fallen far. The Bobcats are a near lock to be the No. 2 seed and would be No. 1 if Glenvar is shocked. Pencil Gretna in at the No. 3 spot unless Floyd County upsets unbeaten Alleghany. The Buffaloes could ascend to No. 3 if that occurs. Otherwise, Floyd will be No. 4, giving the Three Rivers District three of the top four spots. At 3-6 following an 0-6 start, Appomattox County would get the No. 5 spot with a win Friday over Dan River. A first-round game sending Appomattox to Floyd looks very likely. Nelson County would need Appomattox to stumble in order to move up from No. 6. Martinsville could pass Nelson but it would take a win Friday over Halifax County. Patrick County could move past Martinsville if the Cougars defeat James River-Buchanan and the Bulldogs lose. Dan River still has a slim hope, and sit down when you read this: Liberty, which has not won a game in three years, still has a mathematical shot at the No. 8 spot.

REGION 2D: Graham has clinched No. 1

Not a lot of suspense out West. The eight qualifiers have been determined. Only the seedings remain in doubt. Undefeated Graham has clinched the No. 1 spot. Union and Ridgeview are in a near dead heat for the No. 2 spot, although Union would appear to hold all the cards with a closing victory over winless John Battle. Lebanon needs a victory over Tazewell to nail down at least the No. 4 spot. The Pioneers could move up if Ridgeview is not able to defeat Gate City. Virginia High could move up to No. 4 with a victory over 0-9 Marion and a Lebanon loss. Gate City, Lee and Tazewell are currently No. 6, 7 and 8, respectively. Gate City has a chance to edge past Virginia High into the No. 5 spot even if VHS wins Friday. It would be close if the Blue Devils could knock off Ridgeview. A Gate City loss would leave the Blue Devils vulnerable, but Lee would need a huge upset of Abingdon, and Tazewell would need a victory over Lebanon plus favorable results in other games.

REGION 1C: Bath County hopes to lock up No. 1

Is it possible that unbeaten Bath County could lose the regular-season finale and finish behind a three-loss George Wythe team at the top of this region? Possible, yes. Likely, maybe, but it would take a victory by Narrows over Bath on Friday. A win by Bath locks up the No. 1 spot. While No. 3 Grayson County cannot move up to No. 2, Narrows actually could vault the Blue Devils and also bypass George Wythe if the Green Wave can defeat Bath. Parry McCluer can clinch the No. 5 spot by defeating Eastern Montgomery on Friday. Craig County will be the No. 6 seed unless Parry McCluer loses to Eastmont. The Giles-Fort Chiswell winner should get the No. 7 spot. Giles cannot slip below No. 8, but Fort Chiswell could get past by … wait for it … winless reigning Class 1 state champion Galax, which forfeited last week to Fort Chiswell. That’s right, Galax’s nondistrict schedule has given the Maroon Tide enough points for a glimmer of hope, but it would take a mammoth win over Grayson County

REGION 1D: Rye Cove in pursuit of undefeated season

Rye Cove already has done enough work to clinch the No. 1 spot in pursuit of the first 10-0 regular season in school history. Holston and Eastside, both 8-1 are in a tight race for the No. 2 spot. Holston faces Chilhowie in a rivalry game, while Eastside plays Castlewood. Holston holds a slight edge if both teams win. Honaker is waiting to move up from No. 4 if either team falters. The Tigers cannot fall below No. 4. Grundy, Thomas Walker and Rural Retreat all have clinched a playoff berth. A Rural Retreat victory over Honaker could vault the Indians into the No. 5 spot. If Grundy is able to defeat Central-Wise, the Golden Wave likely would finish ahead of Thomas Walker. Patrick Henry-Glade Spring can clinch the No. 8 spot by defeating Northwood. Otherwise, the door is barely open for either Chilhowie or Twin Springs to sneak in as the final team.

 VHSL Rating Scale points are used to determine qualification and seeding for region playoffs. Columns listed are for VHSL-recognized games played, points accumulated and average. Each team’s average at the conclusion of the regular season determines its position for the postseason. Games played against non-VHSL-recognized opponents do not factor into the ratings.

REGION 6ASchoolRecordVHSL gamesPointsRating
1Oscar Smith9-0932035.56
2Highland Springs6-3928731.89
3Glen Allen8-1928331.44
4Manchester6-3925828.67
5Thomas Dale5-4925228
6Western Branch4-5923125.67
7Landstown3-6920923.22
8Grassfield2-7920823.11
9Cosby3-6920522.78
10Deep Run3-71022722.7
10Meadowbrook3-71022722.7
REGION 6B
1Battlefield9-0930433.78
2Stafford8-1929833.11
3North Stafford7-2929432.67
4Patriot7-2928031.11
4Gainesville7-2928031.11
6Colonial Forge7-2927630.67
7Gar-Field7-2927230.22
8Woodbridge6-3925328.11
9Brooke Point5-51027427.4
10Forest Park5-4923726.33
11Osbourn5-4923526.11
12Charles Colgan4-5922324.78
13Mountain View3-6921924.33
14Unity Reed3-6921223.56
15Potomac2-7920022.22
16Freedom-S.Riding2-7919521.67
17C.D. Hylton2-7918820.89
18Osbourn Park1-8917919.89
19Freedom-Woodbridge0-6611018.33
REGION 6C
1Hayfield8-0826032.5
2Lake Braddock7-2927630.67
3West Springfield5-4925528.33
4Fairfax6-3925027.78
5South County4-5923526.11
6James Robinson4-5922124.56
7West Potomac4-5922024.44
8Thomas Edison4-5921824.22
9Mount Vernon4-5921223.56
10Falls Church2-7919521.67
11Alexandria City2-7919521.67
12Annandale2-7919321.44
13Justice1-8918720.78
14John R. Lewis2-7918220.22
15C.G. Woodson0-9916718.56
16T.Jefferson-Alexandria1-5610717.83
REGION 6D
1Washington-Liberty9-0931434.89
1James Madison9-0931434.89
3Langley7-2927931
4Westfield7-2927830.89
5Herndon7-2926629.56
6Yorktown6-3925328.11
7George Marshall6-41027927.9
8Oakton4-5923025.56
9McLean4-5922625.11
10Chantilly4-5922525
11Centreville4-5922424.89
12South Lakes2-7920122.33
13Wakefield2-7919922.11
REGION 5A
1Green Run9-0929032.22
2Frank Cox8-1926729.67
3Salem-Virginia Beach7-2926329.22
4Indian River6-3925428.22
5Kempsville7-2924827.56
6Bayside5-4922525
7Deep Creek4-5922224.67
8Ocean Lakes5-4921523.89
9Hickory4-5920622.89
10Floyd Kellam3-6919121.22
11Great Bridge2-7918320.33
12Tallwood2-7917819.78
13First Colonial1-91018318.3
14Princess Anne0-9915317
REGION 5B
1Maury9-0929232.44
2King’s Fork8-1928131.22
3Warwick9-11029929.9
4Nansemond River7-2926929.89
5Granby9-0925228
6Bethel5-4922224.67
7Menchville5-4922124.56
8Woodside5-51023323.3
9Norview2-6815819.75
10Kecoughtan0-101017517.5
REGION 5C
1William Fleming9-0929032.22
2Matoaca9-0928431.56
3Midlothian7-2925228
4Louisa County7-2924727.44
5Hermitage5-4924427.11
6L.C. Bird6-3923826.44
7PH-Roanoke6-3923726.33
8Douglas Freeman6-41025325.3
9Prince George4-5922525
10Mills Godwin4-5920322.56
11Franklin County2-7919621.78
12Albemarle2-7918020
13J.River-Midlothian1-8917319.22
14Clover Hill1-8817219.11
14J.R. Tucker1-8817219.11
REGION 5D
1Riverbend6-3927630.67
2Briar Woods6-3925027.78
3Independence6-3924627.33
4Lightridge3-6920823.11
5Stone Bridge2-7818122.63
6Riverside4-5919822
6Massaponax1-8919822
8Potomac Falls2-7917719.67
9Harrisonburg0-9915317
REGION 4A
1Phoebus9-0929432.67
2Hampton7-31026126.1
3Smithfield7-2923125.56
4Churchland4-5920422.67
5Warhill4-5919521.67
6Denbigh2-7917119
7Gloucester1-91017017
8Jamestown0-9913915.44
9Manor0-9913615.11
REGION 4B
1Varina7-1826433
2Dinwiddie8-1928731.89
3Huguenot9-0928631.78
4King George7-2925928.78
5Courtland7-2925428.22
6Eastern View6-3923526.11
7Hanover6-3922424.89
8Powhatam5-4921624
9Monacan5-4921523.89
10Atlee5-4921423.78
11Henrico4-5920322.56
12Caroline5-4920022.22
13Spotsylvania3-6918921
14PH-Ashland2-7918120.11
15Chancellor2-7917119
16Richmond City/Arts1-8916017.78
17Mechanicsville1-8914616.22
REGION 4C
1John Champe9-0927830.89
2Tuscarora8-1926528.44
3Loudoun County6-3923825.44
4Woodgrove5-4921523.89
5Loudoun Valley6-3921323.67
6Heritage-Leesburg4-5919021.11
7Broad Run3-6917819.78
8Rock Ridge3-6917319.22
9Park View2-6813817.25
10Dominion0-9913214.67
REGION 4D
1George Washington8-1926629.56
2Jefferson Forest8-1925328.11
3Sherando8-1924927.67
4Salem7-2924126.78
5John Handley8-1923526.11
6Orange County7-2922625.11
7E.C. Glass5-4922424.89
8Mecklenburg County6-3922324.78
9James Wood6-3921924.33
10Amherst County4-5920522.78
11Blacksburg4-5917619.56
12Halifax County2-7917219.11
13Millbrook3-6917119
14Liberty-Bealeton0-101015615.6
15Charlottesville0-9913214.67
REGION 3A
1Lafayette9-0924226.89
2Hopewell5-4921323.67
3I.C. Norcom5-4921023.33
4Colonial Heights4-5919421.56
5Heritage-Newport News3-71019419.4
6Tabb4-5917319.22
7Petersburg2-7917119
8Lakeland2-7916818.67
9York3-6916618.44
10New Kent3-6916318.11
11Lake Taylor2-7915417.11
11Grafton2-7915417.11
13Booker T. Washington1-8913915.44
REGION 3B
1T.Jefferson-Richmond9-0927030
2Kettle Run9-0926429.33
3Armstrong8-1922324.78
4Skyline6-3919521.67
5Brentsville4-5917419.33
6James Monroe3-6916718.56
7Culpeper County3-6916017.78
8Warren County2-7915917.67
9Fauquier2-7915417.11
10Meridian2-7914015.56
11William Monroe2-7913715.22
12Goochland1-8913214.67
13Manassas Park0-101012412.4
REGION 3C
1Liberty Christian8-0823829.75
2Alleghany9-0924427.11
2Turner Ashby9-0924427.11
4Heritage-Lynchburg7-2923526.11
5Rustburg6-3921724.11
6Staunton6-3920923.22
7Wilson Memorial6-3920322.56
8Broadway6-3920122.33
9Monticello6-3919521.67
10Spotswood6-3919021.11
11Fluvanna County4-5917719.67
12East Rockingham5-51018818.8
12Brookville3-6916918.78
13Western Albemarle3-6916017.78
15Rockbridge County1-8914015.56
16Rocktown2-7913715.22
17Waynesboro0-9913114.56
REGION 3D
1Abingdon8-1923225.78
2Magna Vista7-2921824.22
3Lord Botetourt6-3921523.89
3William Byrd7-2921523.89
5Northside5-4919321.44
6Christiansburg5-51021021
7Carroll County5-4918820.89
8Bassett5-51020620.6
9Staunton River4-5918320.33
10Pulaski County2-7915917.67
11Cave Spring2-7915216.89
12Hidden Valley0-9912914.33
13Tunstall0-9911412.78
REGION 2A
1Poquoson9-0925027.78
2Bruton8-1922024.55
3Southampton8-1921924.44
4Central-Lunenburg6-3919121.22
5Greensville County5-4917319.22
6Nottoway4-4814818.5
7King William3-6915817.56
8Amelia County4-61016216.2
9John Marshall2-81014214.2
10Randolph-Henry2-7912313.67
11Nandua2-7912113.44
11Prince Edward County1-8911913.22
13Windsor1-91012112.1
13Arcadia2-81011611.6
REGION 2B
1Clarke County9-0923626.22
2Strasburg8-1922324.78
3Riverheads8-21018824.5
3Buckingham County10-01018824.4
5Central-Woodstock7-2920923.22
6Stuarts Draft7-2920222.44
6Fort Defiance4-5918720.78
8Madison County4-5916318.11
9Page County2-7913515
10Luray1-8912513.89
11x-Stonewall Jackson1-8911612.89
REGION 2C
1Glenvar8-1920122.33
2Radford7-31021821.8
3Gretna6-3919221.33
4Floyd County5-4917719.67
5Appomattox County3-6915817.56
5Nelson County5-4915717.44
7Martinsville3-6915116.78
7Patrick County3-6915116.78
9Dan River3-6913915.44
10Liberty-Bedford0-9913014.44
11James River-Buchanan1-8912513.89
12Chatham3-5810813.5
REGION 2D
1Graham9-0923626.22
2Union6-3921223.56
3Ridgeview7-2919822
4Lebanon7-2919121.22
5Virginia High6-3918720.78
6Gate City6-3917619.56
7Lee5-4916418.22
8Tazewell4-5915717.44
9Central-Wise2-7912513.89
10Richlands2-7912413.78
11John Battle0-9910912.11
12Marion0-9910211.33
REGION 1A
1Rappahannock9-0919024.89
2Essex8-1916220.78
3Northampton7-2915720.44
4Westmoreland6-3915519.33
5Northumberland5-3811717.5
6Middlesex5-3810817.13
7West Point3-6911213.78
8King & Queen4-5910412.89
9Lancaster2-798112.44
10Colonial Beach1-896910.89
11Charles City1-89649.22
12Mathews0-47237
REGION 1B
1Altavista9-0923025.56
2Brunswick6-3918620.67
3Buffalo Gap4-5916017.78
4Sussex Central4-5913615.11
5Franklin3-6912814.22
6Surry County3-6912113.44
7William Campbell1-8911112.33
REGION 1C
1Bath County8-0817822.25
2George Wythe7-31020320.3
3Grayson County5-3815719.63
4Narrows5-3814818.5
5Parry McCluer5-4914916.56
6Craig County5-4913114.56
7Giles3-6911614
8Fort Chiswell2-7910511.67
9Galax0-888710.88
10Eastern Montgomery1-89899.89
11x-Bland County1-68699.85
REGION 1D
1Rye Cove9-0921624
2Holston8-1919621.78
3Eastside8-1919521.67
4Honaker6-3918120.11
5Grundy5-4915417.11
6Thomas Walker6-3915216.89
7Rural Retreat5-4915116.78
8PH-Glade Spring4-5914215.78
9Chilhowie3-6912113.44
10Twin Springs4-5912013.33
11J.I. Burton2-7911913.22
12Northwood3-6911512.78
12Castlewood2-7911112.33
14Hurley1-8910011.11
15Twin Valley1-89849.33

Robert Anderson worked for 44 years in Virginia as a sports writer, most recently as the high school...