Just like that — snaps fingers — Abigail Spanberger is the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor next year.
To be fair, she’s had that position for a while now, which is no doubt what led Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney to drop his gubernatorial bid Tuesday and announce instead for lieutenant governor.
That instantly led state Sen. Aaron Rouse, D-Virginia Beach, to announce what had been widely known anyway: that he’s also a candidate for lieutenant governor. So is Babur Lateef, the chair of the Prince William County School Board. Will a three-way race induce others to enter on the theory that the vote will be chopped up and a majority may not be necessary to win? For instance, Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, came in second last time and carried every locality in the western part of the state. Might he look at a contest with three candidates from the east and see an opening? He says he won’t be making a decision until this summer.
More than a year out from the primary, more than a year and a half out from the general election, Democrats may already have two-thirds of their November 2023 ballot set. Former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones, who unsuccessfully challenged Mark Herring the last time around for the attorney general’s nomination, is out of the legislature but still traveling the state. His Twitter/X account shows he’s recently been in Fairfax County, Loudoun County and Richmond. Last year he spoke to Democrats in Franklin County. That sounds like a statewide campaign to me.
The curious thing is that so far, the only candidate who has announced for the Republican nomination is the little-known Merle Rutledge — even though Republicans hold the lieutenant governorship and attorney general’s office. The expectation is that at least one of those — either Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears or Attorney General Jason Miyares —or both will eventually run. They may feel no need to announce early the way Spanberger did (she had to make way for a successor to her 7th District congressional seat). It could also be that Republicans are waiting to see what happens with the presidential race.
When Donald Trump was president, that produced a swift voter backlash that resulted in Democratic gains in Virginia in 2017 and again in 2019. If he returns to the White House, history suggests that Republican chances next year will be greatly diminished. If Joe Biden is reelected, then Republicans stand a better chance in the 2025 Virginia elections, just as they did in 2021.
With half the gubernatorial field already set, it’s not too early to pose some questions for the next governor, whomever she or he may be.
1. Since 2013, Virginia has consistently seen more people move out of the state than move in. That gap appears to be tightening but is still running against Virginia. Why do you think this is and what would you propose to do about it?
2. Virginia has a higher income tax than four of the five states we border, with Maryland being the sole exception. Virginia also has the highest income tax rate in the Southeast. Gov. Glenn Youngkin says that’s why Virginia’s net out-migration rate is so high. Is Virginia’s income tax rate too high? Or do you not believe that’s a driver of net out-migration?
3. Virginia’s two largest metro areas — Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — are losing population. They don’t just have net out-migration, they have actual population losses. Why do you think this is, and what should the state do about it?
4. Many school systems, particularly rural ones, have difficulty paying for school construction and maintenance. When Gov. Bob McDonnell left office a decade ago, his administration estimated the backlog at $25 billion. Today that would be more than $33 billion. Several years ago, state Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County, proposed a statewide bond issue of $4 billion. That was defeated in the General Assembly. This past year’s session saw the legislature pass a bill to allow localities to hold a referendum on whether to raise their local sales taxes for school construction. The governor vetoed that. What would you propose as a solution here?
5. The state’s school funding formula says that some rural school systems are better able to pay for their schools than Loudoun County, the most affluent county in the country. Do you think the Local Composite Index should be changed? If so, what factors do you think it should emphasize, and which ones should it deemphasize?
6. The Clean Economy Act mandates a transition to a decarbonized power grid. That’s led to a boom in solar farms across much of rural Virginia, particularly in Southside. However, there’s also been pushback against solar in many localities from people who feel that solar farms ruin the rural character of their counties. We’ve seen legislation proposed, and then put off, that would give the state some role in deciding where major power generators go. Do you think the state should have some say in this, even if it means overruling local decisions?
7. Youngkin has pushed for small modular nuclear reactors in the state. Ultimately, that’s a decision for utilities, not the governor. But do you believe Virginia should push for the development of these reactors? If yes, to what extent? Washington state’s Democratic legislature recently appropriated $25 million toward SMRs in that state. If no, why not? Do you believe that non-nuclear sources can supply the power grid?
8. Much of the state’s demand for power is being driven by the growth of data centers, which are concentrated in Northern Virginia. The state’s data center growth has been driven by tax incentives. The Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission says these now total $560 million. Given the demands that data centers are making on the power grid, should the state do away with these tax incentives?
9. Also on data centers: While they have become controversial in Northern Virginia, many localities in rural Virginia, particularly Southwest Virginia, are eager to have them because of the local tax revenue they generate. Data centers, though, have been reluctant to set up shop in these areas. Should you, as governor, get involved in trying to persuade them to locate there rather than Northern Virginia?
10. Should Virginia allow legal sales of cannabis? If no, how do you deal with the sales that are taking place on the black market? If yes, what do you think a legal retail market should look like? Should outdoor cultivation be allowed or banned? Should licenses be distributed on a geographical basis or some other system? If outdoor cultivation is banned, and licenses aren’t distributed geographically, how do you make sure that rural areas get a share of the jobs — or is that not the governor’s concern?
11. This may soon be resolved, but should so-called electronic skill games be allowed? If so, what rules should apply to them? Should localities hold referendums — and should those be opt-in or opt-out? Should the games be regulated like casinos? Should there be any geographical exclusion zones? Youngkin proposed (and the legislature rejected) a 35-mile exclusion zone around existing gaming facilities — and a 2,500-foot exclusion zone around schools, churches and day cares. Those also had the effect of banning the games almost everywhere. So, if you believe in an exclusion zone, what should it be?
12. Should state universities be banned from using mandatory student fees for athletics? At James Madison University, 78% of the athletic funding comes from student fees, according to a study by Sportico. If your answer to the question is no, why should students be required to pay for college sports programs?
13. Some localities, mostly in rural areas, pay for scholarship programs for local students to attend community college. This has the effect of some of the state’s poorest localities subsidizing higher education. Should the state be doing this instead?
14. The Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission is currently studying the prospect of tolls on Interstates 81 and 95. Do you support or oppose toll roads?
15. Amtrak already goes to Roanoke, but plans are in the works to extend the service to Christiansburg. What will you do to facilitate the extension of passenger rail from the New River Valley to Bristol?
16. State law requires public schools to provide period products in middle and high schools but does not fund this mandate. Would you?
17. Should the minimum wage be raised? If yes, should it be the same statewide, or should there be regional minimum wages tied to the different cost of living in different parts of the state?
18. Do we need a cabinet secretary for rural Virginia? A paper published last year by University of Virginia law professor Andrew Block and one of his students, Antonella Nicholas, said we do. Legislation to study that was introduced this year but put off. Critics say it wouldn’t accomplish what supporters say it would. What do you think?
19. What changes, if any, would you like to see made in the state’s election laws? Specifically, should the early voting period stay the same, be extended, be reduced — or be eliminated altogether?
20. There have been gubernatorial debates in Southwest Virginia in 2013, 2017 and 2021. Will you commit to one in Southwest Virginia in 2025? If yes, you can guess what some of the questions will be.