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I was at an event in Richmond when someone told me “you’ve really changed my impression of Danville.”
I take that as a compliment of Cardinal’s coverage that has shone a new light on how Danville, and other parts of our coverage area, are changing. However, that reception guest’s changed impression isn’t based simply on our words. It’s rooted in changed facts on the ground.
The latest population estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia show just how much fortune has swung in Danville’s favor.
On the surface, the numbers don’t look good. They show that since the 2020 census Danville’s population is down by 342, a rate of -0.8%.
Beneath the surface of that declining population, however, we see two different trends going on in two different directions.
In the three years of data since the last census, Danville has seen 1,157 more deaths than births. Only three other localities have a bigger imbalance: Henry County (1,481), Roanoke County (1,255) and Tazewell County (1,192). I’ll have more to say on those figures in a future column.
Suffice it to say that this is a lot more people dying than being born. For context, Danville (population 42,248) has roughly the same population as Henry County and Tazewell County. However, Danville is less than half the size of Roanoke County (population 96,519) but has about the same number of deaths over births. That shows how out-of-line the death rates in all those localities are. We also shouldn’t be terribly surprised by those figures. The median age in Danville is 41, one of the oldest in the state. By contrast, in Lynchburg it’s 28.4.
Now, here’s what’s unusual: From 2010 to 2019, Danville had 1,683 more deaths than births — so in the first three years of the current decade, Danville has already recorded more than two-thirds of what it did in the entire previous decade. Pick any three consecutive years from 2010 to 2019 and you don’t get anywhere close to the current 1,157 deaths-over-births figure. The highest three-year figure from the previous decade was 714. Danville’s way past that now. Put another way, Danville’s deaths-over-births rate is increasing. That’s a result of two things happening simultaneously: an aging population and a declining birth rate.
Now look over on the other side of the demographic ledger. During the past three years, Danville has seen 815 more people move in than move out. Here’s how large that figure is:
- All of Danville’s immediate neighbors (Henry County, Pittsylvania County, Halifax County) saw just the opposite — more people moving out than moving in.
- Along Virginia’s southern border, only two other localities saw a bigger net in-migration than Danville: Suffolk (5,729) and Chesapeake (838).
- That’s right: Danville’s net in-migration is almost the same as Chesapeake, a city almost six times bigger.
To put Danville’s net in-migration of 815 in further context, this is more than Richmond (131), more than Lynchburg (293), more than Roanoke (which suffered net out-migration of -283), more than any other city in Virginia except for Suffolk, Chesapeake and Falls Church. Most cities in Virginia have gone the other direction, with more people moving out than moving in. Much of Northern Virginia is seeing net out-migration. The biggest outflows in the state are from Fairfax County, which has seen a net out-migration of -33,553. Arlington County, Alexandria, Fairfax County, Prince William County — they’re all seeing more people move out than move in, while Danville is seeing more people move in than move out.
Danville!
For those who don’t know the backstory, Danville is a city that went through an economic trauma about two decades ago when the textile industry collapsed and Dan River Mills closed. That’s the Danville many people know, and the only one they know. I once had an editor who said that if newspapers had been around two thousand years ago, they’d have covered the heck out of the crucifixion but completely missed the rise of Christianity — the point being that we in the media are wired to cover big, dramatic events but not as good about covering long-range trends. The collapse of the textile industry drew national attention, but fewer people have paid attention to what’s happened to Danville since. Danville has been patiently reinventing itself. City councilman Lee Vogler is fond of calling Danville “the comeback city.” These census stats show that’s not just a slogan; this is a demonstrable fact.
Ronald Reagan used to talk about how people “vote with their feet,” meaning people will often leave communities they feel are unsuccessful and move to ones that are. The net in-migration numbers show that people are voting with their feet in Danville’s favor. Throughout the whole Cardinal News coverage area in Southwest and Southside, only two other localities saw more net in-migration, and they didn’t see much more. Montgomery County netted 848 people, Roanoke County 845. Both those localities are also more than twice as big as Danville.
As a cynical journalist, I hate to sound like a chamber of commerce cheerleader, but the numbers are what they are. Something is happening in Danville, and it’s worth paying attention to.
Here’s more context that makes all this seem even more remarkable: During the previous decade, Danville had net out-migration, with 540 more people moving out than moving in. In the span of just three years, Danville has turned that around, erased that deficit and posted a surplus of people coming in. Let the record also reflect that all this has happened before the casino opened. The casino is the attention-getter, but what’s really reshaping Danville’s economy is advanced manufacturing and indoor agriculture.
The overall numbers, those death-driven numbers that show Danville’s population declining, mask one of the most dramatic demographic turnarounds taking place in Virginia. Consider the example of Sabine French, who recently moved to Danville. She’s an artist who was living in the suburbs outside Chapel Hill, North Carolina but said she “wanted a place that’s a little more ‘real.'” She found that “realness” in Danville. “I was taken with Danville’s cobblestoned areas and architecture,” she told me by email. “I really like the energy that’s there now. I’ve been impressed by both the civility and forward thinking of the City Council. The question I get asked the most by Danville locals is “WHY are you moving to Danville?” Their incredulity is palpable. I hope this next chapter in Danville’s evolution can open their eyes to the natural, architectural, and historic treasures they’ve been living alongside all along.”
Now, for the bad news (I told you I wasn’t a chamber of commerce cheerleader): Given Danville’s older demographics, that population decline is likely to continue for a while because a) deaths are going to continue to outnumber births and b) it’s going to be hard for those net in-migration numbers to make up for that whole deaths-over-births deficit. In other words, if you look simply at overall population, it’s going to look like Danville is failing, when, in fact, it’s actually succeeding quite well.
This isn’t unique to Danville. As the map above shows, most localities across Virginia — even rural Virginia — are now gaining population through in-migration but losing population overall because deaths outnumber both births and the number of people gained through the moving van. The challenge for all of them is to attract more young adults, and then wait out the inevitable deaths of an older generation. These census figures don’t tell us the age of those newcomers to Danville, so it will be a while before we know how all this plays out. But for now, we know one thing for certain: Danville is attracting newcomers at a rate that few other places in Virginia are.