The key to the Good-McGuire primary could be Haley voters in Charlottesville and Albemarle

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani this week endorsed John McGuire over Rep. Bob Good for the 5th District Republican nomination.

That’s potentially significant because Giuliani is in former President Donald Trump’s orbit and McGuire’s campaign is based on being a more loyal supporter of Trump than Good, who initially endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis but now backs Trump.

The key word there is “potentially.”

The Good-McGuire showdown in a June 18 primary is attracting lots of endorsements from national political figures — and lots of national media attention — but it’s unclear, at least to me, whether any of that makes a difference on the ground.

Historically speaking, some endorsements matter, some don’t — but sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference between the two. There are two keys to any endorsement. First: How does this endorsement help shape the impression of the candidate? Second: How many voters will be swayed by this endorsement?

In the case of the Giuliani endorsement, it certainly helps buttress McGuire’s contention that he’s closer to Trump than Good is, although it doesn’t really change any impression of McGuire. As for whether this really makes a difference, here’s a thought experiment: How many Republicans in the 5th District are thinking, Gosh, I really respect Giuliani. If he says McGuire is the guy, then maybe I should go vote for him?

The endorsement that would really matter is that of Trump himself. He’s shown he can move Republican voters. If he were to endorse in this race, that would be a game-changer. Until that happens — if it does — then I’m going to pay more attention to what Republicans in the district are saying and doing rather than figures in Washington or elsewhere.

We have no public polls to go by in that race. Fundraising is one good — but not always reliable — measure of campaign strength. However, we won’t get a good look at those until April 15. All that’s a long way of saying that at the moment we don’t have much way to gauge how the Good-McGuire race is shaping up. Maybe Good’s in trouble. Maybe McGuire is the Macbeth of his race — “all sound and fury signifying nothing.” We just don’t know.

The one thing that makes me think there is something going on here is that McGuire has picked up some interesting endorsements from Good’s political backyard. He’s been endorsed by Lynchburg Mayor Stephanie Reed, who led the balloting for council in 2022 and, based on vote count, rivals Good as the most popular politician in the Hill City. He’s also been endorsed by three sitting county supervisors in Campbell County — Good’s home county — and one former supervisor who served alongside Good and didn’t find it a good experience. 

Former Campbell supervisor Dale Moore said in a statement: “I’ve known [Good] for years and I can tell you firsthand: Bob Good is selfishly serving Bob Good, not the people of our district. I sat right next to Bob on the Campbell County Board of Supervisors so I’ve seen him in action, and that’s why I’m supporting John McGuire.”

That seems strong stuff. We folks in rural Virginia tend to be more reticent about criticizing our neighbors whom we might see at the grocery store. (Talking behind their back, now that’s a different story.)

One of the first rules of politics is “secure your base.” We’re now seeing indications that Good hasn’t secured his. However, before we jump to conclusions, let’s remember that the Lynchburg area constitutes only about a quarter of the voters in that district. 

With that in mind, let’s take a geographical look at the 5th District. This is a district that looks geographically coherent on a map and is often labeled simply “Southside” but actually consists of multiple regions. Let’s break the 5th District down into its different parts to see what we can learn. I am indebted to the Virginia Public Access Project for doing the math to show what percentage of the district’s voters are in each county.

The Lynchburg area

Lynchburg: 9.59%
Campbell County: 7%
Bedford County (partial): 3.9%
Amherst County: 3.88%
TOTAL: 24.37% of the district’s voters.

This ought to be where Good is strongest. This is, after all, his home turf. However, as we’ve seen, there’s some high-profile dissent. Good’s hands-on involvement in Lynchburg politics — some might call that meddling — has made some enemies. Good ought to win the Lynchburg area easily because it’s his geographic base, but he’s given McGuire an opening that his rival is exploiting. 

McGuire’s state Senate district

Louisa County 5.03%
Powhatan County 4.13%
Goochland County 3.65%
Fluvanna County 3.57%
Hanover County 2.41%
Prince Edward County 2.31%
Appomattox County 2.08%
Buckingham County 1.88%
Amelia County 1.73%
Cumberland County 1.26%
TOTAL: 28.05%

(Notice that the lines of McGuire’s district in Hanover, Louisa and Prince Edward bring in only parts of those counties.)

Here’s where things get interesting. The state Senate district that McGuire represents has more voters in it than Good’s base around Lynchburg. Before anyone gets too excited, I’m not sure that means anything. McGuire was just elected in this district in November, so hasn’t had time to form long-lasting attachments with voters there. We should also not assume that McGuire has the full support of Republicans even in his home county. Last November, Goochland Republicans passed a motion of “no confidence” in McGuire on the grounds that as soon as he got elected to the state Senate, he started running for Congress. “It is now apparent that John McGuire’s intentions were primarily self-serving rather than driven by a genuine desire for public service,” the resolution says. Just as it’s not good for Good to have prominent figures in his home area endorse McGuire, it’s not good for McGuire to have his home county’s Republican Party signal its displeasure. However, we don’t know how many people were behind this motion. Whatever the number is, a much larger number will vote in the  primary. Regardless, if I were Good, I’d be concentrating on these counties because if McGuire can’t win his own legislative district, can he win overall?

Danville/Pittsylvania

Pittsylvania County 7.7%
Danville: 4.89%
TOTAL: 12.59%

Now we get to a part of the district that has no natural ties to either candidate. Good has the advantage of incumbency, so that ought to give him an edge — but how much of one?

East of Danville

Halifax County 4.25%
Mecklenburg County 3.9%
Nottoway County 1.65%
Charlotte County 1.44%
Lunenburg County 1.37%
TOTAL: 12.61%

While I’ve counted these separately, if we had these two categories together, then we find that 25.2% of the district’s covers are in this southern tier from Danville/Pittsylvania eastward. That’s a lot of voters up for grabs — if, in fact, they truly are up for grabs.

Charlottesville/Albemarle:

Albemarle County 14.46%
Charlottesville 5.9%
Nelson County 2.02%
TOTAL: 22.38%

More than one-fifth of the district’s voters — almost one-quarter — are in the Charlottesville area, almost as many as the Lynchburg area. What’s particularly interesting is that during the March presidential primary, Albemarle and Charlottesville went strongly for Nikki Haley, not Donald Trump. Haley took 54% of the vote in Albemarle, 73% in Charlottesville — which, admittedly, is not exactly prime Republican territory. Between them, that’s 6,236 votes for Haley. By contrast, she polled just 1,621 votes in Lynchburg, the second biggest locality in the district behind Albemarle, and 673 in Pittsylvania County, the third biggest.

What will these Haley voters do in the Good-McGuire primary? If we infer that the Haley voters were more traditional Republican voters, it’s hard to see them liking either Good or McGuire. Would they go with McGuire, on the theory that he seems less disruptive than Good? Would they go with Good because they can’t stomach someone like McGuire who has wrapped himself so close to Trump? Will they even vote at all?

In a close race between Good and McGuire, these Haley voters in Charlottesville and Albemarle seem a big wild card. Maybe Good wins in a blowout and they don’t matter. Maybe McGuire wins in a blowout. It would be a great irony, though, if a contest between two candidates both trying to run as far right as possible gets decided by voters just somewhat right of center.