The scenario I outlined in Monday’s column — a three-way race for mayor of Roanoke — has now come to pass.
On Tuesday, former Democratic Mayor David Bowers announced he would run again, this time as a Republican. This comes as no real surprise, given how much attention he called to his party conversion last year. We should all remember that when Bowers retired in 2016, he reminded people that “The only cure for political fever is embalming fluid.” He’s since run twice more, both times unsuccessfully. Will the third time — post-retirement, that is — be the charm?
Let’s briefly revisit the numbers I explored Monday and add some new ones.
Bowers polled 19,247 votes when he ran as an independent against Democratic Mayor Sherman Lea in 2020; Lea took 21,552. (Lea is now retiring.)
Of note: Bowers ran stronger than Donald Trump did in the city that year; Trump took 15,607 to Biden’s 26,773.
On the surface, it looks like Bowers got 15,607 votes and then added some more — perhaps residual support among some Democratic voters who liked Bowers and not Lea for whatever reason.
That’s entirely possible, but we don’t know for sure. There was a lot of early voting in that pandemic year, and early votes were all counted in a “central absentee precinct” so we don’t have any good precinct-level analysis of just where Bowers’ “extra” votes came from. A new law sponsored by state Sen. David Suetterlein, R-Roanoke County, has fixed that, but can’t go back in time.
Each election is also different, so just because Bowers got 19,247 votes in 2020 doesn’t mean he will this time around.
A safer analysis would be that he gets the standard Republican vote in Roanoke for a presidential year, whatever that is. That may be wrong — it might understate Bowers’ support, it might overstate it — but it is safer and I like safe.
Here’s a fun fact that might surprise some people: The Republican presidential vote in Roanoke has been very consistent, regardless of whether Trump was the candidate or not. John McCain took 15,394 votes in Roanoke in 2008, Mitt Romney took 14,991 in 2012, Donald Trump took 14,789 in 2016 — you’ll notice all those numbers declined slightly year to year — but then Trump’s bumped up to 15,607 in 2020. They aren’t quite the same type of voters. McCain carried Lee-Hi, a more affluent precinct, while Trump lost it in 2016, and we just don’t know about 2020. McCain won working-class Garden City narrowly, while Trump won it by wide margins. That fits national patterns.
In terms of raw numbers, though, the total Republican vote in Roanoke over the past four presidential cycles has been about the same — anywhere between 14,789 and 15,607 votes. The total Democratic vote has also been about the same — between 22,286 and 26,773.
Republicans can hope that support for Trump is stronger this time and support for Biden is weaker; Democrats can hope for just the opposite. The safest analysis, though, starts with those numbers above.
Here’s one way to look at those numbers. In 2020, Biden finished 11,166 votes ahead of Trump in the city. If Bowers got every Trump voter, but no more, then the question becomes how many Biden voters would Democrat Joe Cobb get? How many would peel off for independent Stephanie Moon? How much, if any, will Bowers be able to expand the Republican vote? And how many simply don’t vote? There’s always some ballot drop-off between the top of the ticket and the lower races.
The wild card in all this may be Bowers’ emphasis on crime, something he said would be his top campaign issue. The homicide rate nationally is dropping, but it’s rising in Roanoke. “For the first time in my life,” Bowers said, “people are afraid to be in Roanoke.” He mentioned a young client who he said was afraid to walk her dog on the greenway because of gangs. He mentioned an older couple that was afraid of encountering homeless people on the greenway. Crime is always an issue that gives Republicans an advantage; might there be some voters who are reluctant to vote for a generic Republican but would vote for Bowers because they know him — and because crime is a salient issue?
Democrats would be well-advised to have a good answer on crime. Bowers’ answer is more police officers. Cobb has been part of the city’s Gun Violence Prevention Commission, which Bowers said might have impact someday but doesn’t address the immediate issue. Others can debate policy, but from a political point of view, Bowers has the easier job here. Instead of a gun violence prevention commission, “we need gun violence apprehension,” Bowers said. That could be a popular line; no matter that Roanoke’s mayor has no executive function over city government and is simply the most famous of seven members on council. How much will Roanoke’s Democratic-leaning electorate focus on the “R” that’s now after Bowers’ name and how much will they respond to such tough talk? The outline of the race will probably be something like this: Cobb will say things are going well and Roanoke should stay the course with some modifications; Bowers will say things are going poorly. Moon, in her announcement Saturday, mostly emphasized her years of service to the city. Which message best connects to the current mood of Roanoke?
Those are the questions that will determine who Roanoke’s next mayor will be. So could Bowers win? Sure. Could Cobb still win in a three-way race? Sure. Could Moon win? That’s harder because independents don’t have a natural base, but Moon is well-known. Her challenge will be campaigning in an environment where the presidential race polarizes people into two warring camps — on the other hand, depending on how things play out, that could be the ideal opportunity for an independent.