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A powerful coastal storm, commonly called a nor’easter, will sweep in a second consecutive Sunday wind-blown washout over most of Virginia.
Almost all of Cardinal News’ coverage area encompassing Southwest and Southside Virginia, possibly excluding the southwest tip of the state, will have a soggy, gusty Sunday with temperatures stuck in the 40s. Even heavier rain and stronger winds are expected to the east, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion along the shore.
Most of Virginia along and east of the Blue Ridge is expected to total 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, locally more, with amounts dwindling gradually to the west. The southwest tip of the state around Lee, Wise and Scott counties is expected to get only light amounts, too far away from the low’s northerly track near the East Coast.
Gusts may top 40 mph at times especially in areas of Central and Southside Virginia east of U.S. 29 — the highway connecting Danville, Lynchburg and Charlottesville — and some higher elevations along the Blue Ridge. Wind gusts over 50 mph, possibly 60 mph, are possible east of our region closer to the shore, where waves topping 10 feet may occur.
Spun around by the low’s counterclockwise rotation, winds will blow from the northeast — why such a storm is known as a “nor’easter” — until the low passes our latitude and winds start turning more northerly then westerly late Sunday into Monday. Mountainous western areas of our region may get stronger gusts from the westerly winds following the storm rather than the northeasterly winds preceding its passage. Sporadic power outages and tree damage are possible.
Brief localized flooding is also possible where rainfall is heaviest, but with most of the western two-thirds of Virginia in moderate to severe drought, this rain will still be largely beneficial with larger rivers unlikely to flood.
A low-pressure path from the Gulf Coast up the Eastern Seaboard would often be considered a track capable of producing a major winter storm for our region, but there is currently no deep cold air preceding the storm or positioned where the storm could pull it in as it spreads moisture inland.
The low will grab some cold air from Canada and tug it southward after it passes, leading to some upslope snow showers in the mountains west of Interstate 77 and near the West Virginia border, and then a brief midweek cold spell that will short-circuit what would otherwise be a relatively mild week for our region. Tuesday will see highs only in the 30s across much of our region, gradually warming back to the 50s by Christmas.
This coastal low may be the harbinger of a more classic subtropical flow across the southern and eastern U.S. typical in winters when El Niño, the warming of a strip of equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, is present. The potential for additional wet storms, combined with likely intrusions of colder air toward the end of this month and in January, may lead to more wintry precipitation implications.
But not this time, other than the aforementioned trailing mountain snow showers. This time around, it’s all about rain and wind.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.