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A dynamic storm system will throw various forms of inclement weather at Southwest and Southside Virginia on Sunday.
The main component will be windy rain, possibly heavy at times, collecting 1-2 inches at many locations across the region, locally more. The rain will sweep west to east across the region during the day on Sunday, with a narrow squall line of heavy rain possibly developing.
It will not be an unwelcome rain given ongoing large-scale moderate to severe drought across much of Virginia, but could be troublesome for travelers with lowered visibilities and ponding on roads.
The winds at the surface will be accompanied by stronger winds aloft that may give some embedded thunderstorm cells a spin over the Carolinas extending into Southside Virginia and points eastward. Although instability is limited under overcast skies, a marginal risk of severe storms with locally damaging winds – and, possibly, an isolated tornado – exists in these regions.
And finally, as a cold front moves rapidly across the region by Sunday evening turning mild southerly winds into cold westerly gusts, rain will change to snow in Southwest Virginia areas west of Interstate 77 and other areas near the West Virginia state line. Some snow may spread eastward across the New River Valley toward the Blue Ridge late Sunday night into early Monday.
It appears at this time that any accumulations will be light and streaky, mostly under 2 inches, favoring higher elevations and more western parts of the region.
Cold air chasing the back edge of moisture from the west usually doesn’t produce much in the way of snow any farther east than I-77, as downslope flow over the Appalachians often dries the atmosphere out. But, in this situation, there are multiple waves of low pressure moving along the cold front, and any of those could hold the rain shield up long enough to allow cold air to catch some of it.
As of Friday night, there is some uncertainty about amounts and extent of snowfall, though a widespread winter storm with plowable snow (3 or more inches) appears extremely unlikely. However, even relatively small amounts of snowfall could beat 2022-23 winter totals at some locations.
The windy cold front and possible snow do not signal any kind of Arctic blast for the region. Temperatures will modify toward mid-December normals – 40s and 50s highs, 20s and 30s lows – in the week ahead. Long-range forecasts suggest warmer than normal temperatures are likely to rule through Christmas, though with possible brief cold interludes and additional wet storm systems.
Dynamic storm systems such as this one, with heavy rain and variable temperatures leading to precipitation changes, are common historically during winters featuring El Niño, or the emergence of a warm stripe of equatorial Pacific waters. No single storm can be said to be caused by El Niño, but increasing frequency of similar systems to this weekend’s could be a sign of its influence on the winter weather pattern.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.