Who’s up and who’s down in the VHSL football points

For the latest VHSL scores, visit our VHSL Football 2022 project page.

Early October produces two sets of numbers: pre-election polls and the Virginia High School League Rating Scale.

The final totals in November ultimately determine who is left standing.

The VHSL has issued its first set of points, which determine who qualifies for the football playoffs and the seedings within each region.

In regions that include schools from Southwest and Central Virginia, the top eight teams qualify.

 Here is the early outlook:

Region 6A picture: Franklin County has played just three postseason games at home in school history. Can the Eagles make it four? Franklin County might be able to do it with a 7-3 record, but that could be cutting it close. Unbeatens Thomas Dale and Oscar Smith will be tough to dislodge from the top two spots, but both have Week 11 challenges: Thomas Dale vs. Dinwiddie, and Oscar Smith vs. Phoebus. Halfway through the season and it looks like nine teams are playing for eight spots. Winless Grassfield and Ocean Lakes would need a miracle.

Region 5D picture: Patrick Henry’s 4-1 start has the Patriots no better than No. 6 at the moment, but the long-range outlook for PH is positive. The Patriots have a decent shot at the No. 4 or maybe even No. 3 spot by season’s end. Patrick Henry finishes with a home game against Salem. Mountain View and Stone Bridge are the best bets to take the top two spots. Independence is 6-0 but its six opponents have combined to win just five games so far. William Fleming’s hole is probably too deep to escape, but if the Colonels had not let a two-touchdown lead slip away in the fourth quarter of the opener against Heritage, they would be No. 10 now instead of No. 14.

Region 4D picture: Once the Seminole District race unfolds, Amherst County, E.C. Glass and Jefferson Forest should separate themselves in the middle of the pack. Glass plays Amherst this week. Orange County stayed at No. 1 after last week’s game against Albemarle was canceled. Salem and Louisa County figure to battle for the top spot, although Louisa has beaten four teams that haven’t yet won a game. Louisa plays Orange County this week. A 5-5 record probably will be enough to grab the last spot or two as it appears that nine teams are battling for the eight playoff positions.

Region 3C picture: With the top three spots in hand, is there any question about the Seminole District’s strength? Liberty Christian is a solid No. 1, and a home win over Heritage on Oct. 13 would all but lock up the spot barring a total collapse. How long can Staunton stay unbeaten? Staunton gets Riverheads at home Oct. 28. This is the region of “haves and have-nots.” Five of the 16 teams are still winless, including Waynesboro, which already has finished its Shenandoah District schedule at 0-6. Who will get the final spot or two? Current No. 8 Rustburg already has played LCA and Heritage but still has to go through the rest of its Seminole slate.

Region 3C picture: The No. 1 spot figures to be a battle between Lord Botetourt, Christiansburg and Bassett. The Bengals, who lost early to Franklin County and Liberty Christian, will be favored in each of their final five games. Christiansburg still has a trip to Patrick Henry, while Botetourt has its entire Blue Ridge District schedule including a home game against Franklin County. After the top three, it’s possible a handful of teams could finish 5-5. Will a 4-6 record be enough to grab the No. 8 spot? Most likely, the answer is … yes.

Region 2C picture: Appomattox County’s schedule might pay dividends later, but right now losses to Class 3 Heritage, Rustburg and Lord Botetourt have the perennial region champs scrambling just to get a first-round home game. Glenvar’s trip to Floyd County on Friday will elevate the winner to the No. 3 spot. Radford and Martinsville appear poised to hang on to the top two spots for the rest of the season. Big games are Glenvar at Radford on Oct. 28, and Bassett at Martinsville on Nov. 4. Alleghany’s next three games are on the road. A win in just one of them for the No. 5 Mountaineers might be enough to eventually land a berth. Don’t count out Dan River for a late charge into playoff contention. A 5-5 or even a 6-4 record looks possible for the Wildcats.

Region 2D picture: Is Graham poised for another run to the Class 2 championship game? The 2021 state runners-up have an Oct. 21 home date with Pulaski County as their toughest remaining game. Ridgeview has mostly cruised to a 5-0 record, but the second half of the schedule is tougher, beginning with Friday’s home game against Union. Virginia High might have a say in the pecking order. An Oct. 14 home game with Graham could determine whether the Bearcats finish 9-1 or 8-2. The first half has marked the return of former power Gate City to the mix. The Blue Devils should grab just their second playoff berth since 2016 and could earn a first-round home game if the cards fall right.

Region 1C picture: The playoff ratings of many Class 1 teams in the western part of the state will be directly and indirectly affected by the decisions of Bland County and Region 1D member Twin Valley to cancel their seasons. Several teams have lined up replacement games, while others will play just eight or nine games. Through six weeks, Craig County has played just twice. At 5-0, Grayson County is one of just three unbeaten Class 1 teams statewide. Who saw that coming? The Blue Devils’ last two games are at George Wythe and at Galax. Narrows has a decent shot to grab one of the top three spots, but the Green Wave might have to run the table. The Pioneer District race will determine plenty. If Covington can’t generate enough points, the final game in more than 100 years of football at Covington would take place Nov. 3 at Craig County.

Region 1D picture: The five members of the Cumberland District other than J.I. Burton have combined to win just one of their last 33 playoff games. What now to make of No. 1 Rye Cove? The Eagles entered the season with a 13-game losing streak and only played six games in 2021 before stowing their gear. How closely will the 1D points standings reflect the relative strength of the teams? Sitting tied for eighth at 2-3, Grundy is going to be a team to watch. Upcoming games against George Wythe and J.I. Burton could indicate just how far the Golden Wave might go. Is Chilhowie going to finish 0-10? The only previous 0-10 mark in school history was in 1980 when the Warriors had to forfeit nine wins because of an ineligible player.