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The vernal equinox marks the start of spring late next Tuesday, but it may seem more like an early April Fool’s Day prank instead.
Cold air appears poised to make a move southward over much of the Eastern U.S. just as the calendar declares it to be officially spring.
This will follow our warmest stretch of 2024 so far this week, with 70s highs common east of the Blue Ridge each day through Saturday, and poking above 70 just about everywhere in Southwest and Southside Virginia on Thursday. Don’t rule out a scrape with 80 somewhere in Southside — or maybe even the urban floor of the Roanoke Valley — on Thursday.
On the whole, as of early this week, Southwest and Southside Virginia do not appear to be quite as far along in the spring greening as we were a year ago, which followed what in our region was an even warmer winter than this one. (This winter, however, was the warmest on record nationally.) But this week’s warm stretch, interspersed with some rain on Friday and Sunday, will encourage even more budding and blooming to occur, far ahead of what has historically been the normal, but seems to be becoming more common as milder winters have become more frequent.
Cold air still exists in the Northern Hemisphere, however, mostly redirected elsewhere by weather patterns over much of the past two winters. As some high-pressure blocking sets up in northern latitudes, some of it will funnel southward next week for an intrusion of some windy chill for a few days.
A couple or three mornings of below-freezing temperatures are likely over much of our region by around the middle of the week — just as the March 19 vernal equinox arrives to start spring on the calendar. There may be a second shot of colder air several days after this one as March moves toward April.
Widespread snow looks to be a long shot at best in any coming cold air shots. There will probably be some snow showers blowing over the mountains as there commonly are behind just about any reasonably strong cold front even deep into April, but swinging an upper-level shortwave around with the right timing and positioning to spread moisture into air just cold enough for snow over a wider area will be difficult — though not impossible. It will be something to keep half an eye on next week.
Shifting between warmer and colder spells is not, in itself, unusual for March, which arguably is the most “four-season” month we have, with both massive snowstorms and 90-degree temperatures part of the month’s weather history in our region. We rarely “get warm and stay warm” this time of year, but rather bounce back and forth between relative warmth and chill, usually accompanied by some gusty winds as boundaries between different temperature regimes beget dynamic air flow.
As we press on deeper into spring, the concern will be less about lengthy or extreme periods of winter relapse and more about just having a night or two of subfreezing temperatures here or there nipping buds, blooms, fruit and leaves. Having a mild winter beforehand doesn’t prevent getting cold at least a day or two deep into spring — the 2019-20 winter was mild and nearly snowless for much of the region, but most locations hit the freezing mark or below as late as May 11. And those freezes can have greater impact after early-arriving warmth than they do following late winter-early spring periods when colder air holds on longer.
You may remember a similar discussion about cold air — and a little snow — arriving after winter warmth a year ago this week.
Snow extremes
Tuesday, March 12, marked a full year since the last measurable snow at Danville, Martinsville, and several surrounding Southside localities.
Most of the region to the north and west broke long streaks without measurable snow or without having at least an inch of snow when 2 to 6 inches, with a few locally heavier amounts, accumulated on Jan. 15. But the Southside localities ended up behind a warm front in that event, staying milder and drier. Those locations have not seen measurable snow since snowfall in tenths of an inch collected on March 12 last year, when a wide but not deep snow event broke many regional locations out of the near-snowlessness of the 2022-23 winter. The Southside localities mentioned have not seen a snowfall of 1 inch or more since January 2022.
Conversely, March 12-13 also marks the 31st anniversary of the “Superstorm” or the “Blizzard of ’93” that brought widespread foot-plus snow and feet of drifts to much of Southwest and Southside Virginia. We took a look back at that in Cardinal Weather last year on its 30th anniversary.
More recently, March 12-13 brought the first of three tardy winter storms to affect much of our region in March 2018, with many locations getting 1-4 inches and some a little more. March 12 also brought a sizeable snowfall of 3-6 inches, locally more, to Southwest areas west of I-77 two years ago, with lighter amounts eastward to the Blue Ridge.
So it can definitely still snow in our region in mid to late March, even in more recent years. But for now, there seem to only be distant prospects that this March could follow suit.
Gusty winds
Living up to March’s aforementioned reputation, a recent cold frontal passage brought periods of strong wind gusts that resulted in scattered power outages across parts of our region along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Below is a listing of the highest wind gusts reported to the National Weather Service:
Bald Knob near Mountain Lake, Giles County: 66 mph
Just south of Blacksburg, Montgomery County: 65 mph
Roanoke-Blacksburg Regional Airport, Roanoke city: 59 mph
Ingalls Field, Hot Springs, Alleghany County: 58 mph
Bent Mountain, Roanoke County: 55 mph
Galax city: 55 mph
Rugby, Grayson County: 53 mph
Mountain Empire Airport, Smyth County: 51 mph
Woodlawn, Carroll County: 50 mph
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
