We’ve collected all our work on Virginia’s changing demography in one place; find it here.
Danville likes to call itself “the comeback city” and there’s a lot of evidence that’s true. A quarter-century ago, the city went through the economic trauma of seeing the Dan River Mills textile mill shut down. Today, the city is reinventing itself economically, something lots of communities aspire to but often don’t manage to pull off.
This fall, Danville voters will pick five members of a seven-member city council, an unusually high number that’s bumped up by a special election to fill the seat that Madison Whittle left to go to the House of Delegates.
Nine candidates are seeking the four regular seats; two others are running in the special election.
Danville voters who want to see where those candidates stand on the issues can check out the Danville page on our Voter Guide to see how the candidates answered our issues questionnaire; eight of the 11 candidates have replied.
One of the questions we asked the candidates was how they think the city should handle the population and economic growth it’s seeing. Today, let’s take a look at the nature of that population and economic growth.
Danville has reversed 30 years of population decline
This isn’t new because it’s been reported before, but here’s where we must begin: Danville’s population peaked in 1990 at 53,036 and declined in the three decades that followed. The 2020 census counted 42,590 people in Danville.
That 1990 peak came because of a population surge in the 1980s. If we step back, we see that Danville has lost population for five of the past six decades, starting in the 1960s. That 2020 census count put Danville’s population back where it was in the 1950s.
Since 2020, Danville has recorded a gain of 614 people, according to the latest population estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. That’s not a lot compared to, say, Richmond, which has gained 14,868 people. However, it’s more than Charlottesville (370) and Roanoke (75) have gained. All things are relative: The key thing is that Danville has reversed what seemed an endemic trend. How did it do this? This has a simple explanation, even if the underlying details are complicated: Danville has built a new economy. We now have five years of reporting out of Danville, most of it by our Danville-based reporter, Grace Mamon, that explains the political and business decisions behind that. What follows is the demography.
Danville has a lot of deaths and few births. Only four other places in Virginia have a bigger imbalance.
Population changes come in just two categories: births versus deaths and people moving in versus people moving out.
Danville, being an older city, suffers from deaths outnumbering births by a wide margin. From 2020 to 2025, the city had 1,647 more deaths than births. To put that in context, only four localities in Virginia have a bigger deaths over births deficit:
Henry County -2,318
Roanoke County -1,920
Washington County -1,891
Tazewell County -1,867
Danville -1,647
Smyth County -1,408
Wise County -1,327
Franklin County -1,323
James City County -1,279
Halifax County -1,147
Being on this list doesn’t mean a community is “bad” or has done something wrong; it just means it’s an older community. Most localities in Virginia now have more deaths than births; these communities simply have more. Since deaths are inevitable, the solution — if anyone sees this as a problem to be solved — is to bring in younger adults and hope that nature takes its course. That’s a policy choice local governments can pursue in multiple ways. More jobs will likely bring in more younger adults. Of course, potential employers want to make sure a workforce is available, so this dynamic works both ways. Communities can also make a point of providing various amenities that younger adults might like. These may seem niceties to some people, but they are necessities if the policy goal is to attract younger residents who can live anywhere they want.
Only three Virginia cities have more people moving in than Danville does
While deaths, births, people moving in and people moving out are all happening at the same time, here’s an easy way to think about this statistically: Being an older city, Danville can be counted on to start off on the minus side demographically. The question then becomes how many new residents the city can attract to counterbalance that deficit.
Over the past five years, Danville has had 2,261 more people move in than move out, which has erased that deaths-over-births deficit to give the city a population increase. Now let’s put that net in-migration number in context. The locality with the highest net in-migration is Chesterfield County, which is seeing a big influx of new residents. The net in-migration there is 31,161. The place with the highest net out-migration is Fairfax County, which stands at -38,495. (I’ve written before about why Fairfax has such a high out-migration rate.)
Here’s how Danville stands in relationship to its most immediate neighbors in Virginia:
Danville 2,261
Martinsville 895
Halifax County 493
Pittsylvania County 121
Henry County -728
Danville is definitely the population driver in the southern part of the state. If we widen our lens and compare Danville to some other cities, here’s what we see:
Richmond 10,893
Suffolk 8,835
Chesapeake 3,570
Danville 2,261
Falls Church 2,236
Lynchburg 2,006
Waynesboro 1,878
Staunton 1,870
Winchester 1,782
Petersburg 1,727
Yes, among Virginia’s cities, Danville has the fourth-highest net in-migration and the three cities above it are all much bigger. Nine cities are in the minus range with net out-migration. How is Danville doing this?
Danville has gained population because fewer people are moving away
How has Danville managed to achieve such high net in-migration? I took a deep dive into those numbers earlier this year and found this: The number of people moving into Danville hasn’t changed much over the years. What’s changed is that fewer people have moved away, which results in a higher net in-migration. Since the pandemic, the in-migration to Danville has continued at basically the same rate, while the out-migration has dropped by 18%. You can find the details on all those numbers here. Why are fewer people moving out of town? Two possible reasons: One, fewer people are moving in general. Two, more people — particularly young adults — may be finding job opportunities in Danville than they did before so there are fewer reasons to move away. How do we know it’s young adults who are staying? Census Bureau statistics.
Virtually all of Danville’s population growth is under age 45
The Census Bureau slices up the population in five-year increments. There are six such segments from birth through age 44. Of those, Danville is gaining population in five (only age 30-34 has dipped over the past five years). These young adults are doing what young adults have always done: They’re having babies. The age band with the most growth is birth through 4 years: up 319. By contrast, the number of those 40-44 is up 178 and those 35-39 up 143. Danville schools appear poised to have higher enrollment in the years ahead.
Why are more young adults staying in Danville (or moving there) than in the past? The answer to that question takes us from demography to economy.
Danville wages have risen at a faster rate than in most of the country
They remain lower than elsewhere, to be sure, but from 2019 to 2025, they’ve risen by 7.1% — the national average is 4.5%. That’s the good news. Now, here’s the bad news. From the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, wages in Danville have fallen by 5.3%. That’s not necessarily Danville’s fault; it’s consistent with national trends, although that’s not much of a consolation. It is, though, an overview of how Danville is changing as voters head to the polls this year.
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