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For the past two days, I’ve been looking at the latest population estimates for Virginia, which come from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
On Wednesday, I looked at how Fairfax County’s population losses are accelerating while population growth downstate is growing.
On Thursday, I looked at how both these population trends are driven by people moving, rather than births and deaths. Virtually all of rural Virginia now sees more people moving in than moving out, a reversal of some generations-long trends. Many of those places are still losing population because, with an aging population, deaths outnumber both births and the new residents, but those population losses are slowing.
Today, I’ll delve deeper into the numbers and make some comparisons to put some of them in context. First, though, allow me a moment of geekdom. The word “delve” always reminds me of the line from J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Lord of the Rings” where Gandalf the wizard was describing why the dwarves’ attempt at mining in Moria ended in catastrophe: “They delved too greedily and too deep, and disturbed that from which they fled.” Ideally, I will awaken no Balrog, an evil entity of fire and shadow, from these numbers, although you never can tell.
More people have moved out of Fairfax County than all of rural Virginia put together
It’s not even close. Fairfax County has lost only 2,795 people; that is just a 0.2% decline in a county that size, but, as I’ve pointed out before, this is historically huge because this is a county that hasn’t lost population since the 1820s. That bottom-line number masks what’s really happening: More people are moving out of Fairfax than are moving in, and the numbers are big. From 2020 to 2025, Fairfax had 38,495 more people move out than move in. That number has been almost, but not quite, balanced out by births exceeding both deaths and the moving van, but that’s still a lot of people moving out. That’s the equivalent of Gloucester County or Tazewell County just disappearing.
We’ve historically thought of rural Virginia as the place where people are moving out, but that’s no longer true: It’s the urban crescent, or, more accurately, parts of the urban crescent. Only four rural counties saw net out-migration: Buchanan, Dickenson, Henry and Wise. Between them, they had a net out-migration of 1,204.
Fairfax County’s outmigration is now almost 32 times more than all of rural Virginia.
Virginia Beach has lost more population than any other locality in the state
Again, this doesn’t show up on a percentage scale — just a 1.2% decline since 2020 — but in terms of actual numbers, Virginia Beach has lost more residents than anywhere else. It’s down 5,682 people. That’s also as much as the coal counties of Southwest Virginia combined: Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Tazewell and Wise, plus the city of Norton. Together they’ve lost 6,173.
As with Fairfax County, Virginia Beach’s problem is people moving out. Since 2020, the beach has had 12,522 more people leave than move in. Only Fairfax County has seen a bigger net exodus.
Almost all of Fairfax’s departures have been balanced by births, but only about half of Virginia Beach’s have.
Newport News posts Virginia’s second biggest population decline
After Virginia Beach, the locality with the second-biggest population decline, on a numerical basis, is Newport News. That city’s population has dropped by 3,412 since the last census (although on a percentage basis, that’s just a 1.8% decline). We see a profile similar to Virginia Beach: Newport News has the third-highest population outflows in the state — 6,665 more people have moved out than moved in since 2020, a figure topped only by Fairfax County and Virginia Beach. As with Virginia Beach, births over deaths are high enough that they mitigate some, but not all, of that net out-migration. That brings us to this big picture:
Five of the seven cities in Hampton Roads have out-migration
Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth and Virginia Beach all have more people moving out than moving in. Only Chesapeake and Suffolk have net in-migration. However, the net in-migration in Chesapeake and Suffolk together still adds up to less than Virginia Beach’s out-migration, so the overall migration in and out of Hampton Roads is on the outflow side. Births over deaths make up for that, though, just barely. That’s why the overall population growth in Hampton Roads is just 1.0% since 2020.
Now, for some good news:
Southwest Virginia’s coal counties may finally be seeing the end of out-migration
The coal counties are on the verge of a historic turnaround. They’re all still losing population, as they have been for decades now, but that can’t really be helped. All have aging populations, and deaths outnumber births by large margins. What is changing is that more people are now moving into most of these counties than are moving out — and this trend is accelerating. The numbers aren’t big enough to overcome those death figures, but this net in-migration seems a vote of confidence in the marketplace.
Lee County, Norton and Scott County have had net in-migration for several years now. These latest population estimates show that Russell County and Tazewell County have flipped from net out-migration to net in-migration in the past year. That leaves just Buchanan County, Dickenson County and Wise County with more people moving out than moving in, but in each locality, the gap is narrowing.
Last year’s estimates had Wise County at -228 from 2020 to 2024; now it’s at -92 for 2020 to 2025.
Dickenson County has gone from -177 last year to -97 in the new estimates.
Buchanan County has gone from -445 last year to -287 now.
If those trendlines continue, it seems likely that Dickenson and Wise may flip into the in-migration category soon; Buchanan may take a while longer.
It’s impossible from these stats to know whether this means more people are moving in or just that fewer people are moving out. Either way, the trends here are encouraging ones for the region.
Lynchburg is the baby capital of the western part of Virginia
About two-thirds of Virginia’s population growth comes from people moving into the state, not people being born. Not surprisingly, where Virginia’s population is older (such as rural Virginia), deaths outnumber births. Where it’s younger (the urban crescent), births outnumber deaths.
The one geographic exception is Lynchburg, where births exceed deaths by 402. That’s also not surprising; Lynchburg has the fifth-youngest median age of any locality in Virginia. Still, it makes Lynchburg quite different from other communities on the western side of the state.
Danville gets the attention for being the ‘comeback city,’ but pay attention to the rest of Southside, too
Danville, which had been losing population since 1990, is now gaining population again — thanks to an especially strong rate of in-migration that is bigger than that of all but three other cities in Virginia. See Thursday’s column for the details on that. However, we really need to look at what’s happening across most of the southern tier of Virginia between Hampton Roads and the Blue Ridge.
In the 2020 census, every locality along the state’s southern border, from Southampton County to Patrick County, lost population. They weren’t the largest population losses in the state (those were in Southwest), but some were close.
In these estimates, which cover 2020 to 2025, Danville, Martinsville and Mecklenburg County are now posting population increases. All still see deaths outnumber births, but net in-migration is strong enough to make up for that. Martinsville’s population growth, while far more modest than Danville’s in numerical terms, is actually higher on a percentage basis — and more historic. Martinsville has been losing population since the 1970s. Now it’s not. (Danville has added 614 people, a 1.4% increase. Martinsville has added 226 people, a 1.7% increase.)
Mecklenburg County, which lost 7.4% of its population in the decade prior to the 2020 headcount, is now on the plus side by 0.2%. Other border communities are still losing population, just not nearly as much. Brunswick County lost 9.09% of its population in the 2020 census; now it’s down by only 0.2%.
The details are consistent in these counties: More people are moving in, and that’s making up for population losses by death. If these trends continue, it appears likely that more of these Southside localities will start gaining population.
Henry County needs more young parents moving in
The one exception to these trends along the North Carolina border is Henry County. Its rate of population decline from 2020-2025 now exceeds that of 2010-2020. In the last census, Henry lost 5.9% of its population; now it’s at -6.0%. Three-fourths of Henry’s population decline is driven by deaths. The county has had 2,318 more deaths than births; that’s the highest such figure in the state. It’s unclear why Henry’s figure is so high, although it’s probably more related to a declining birth rate than an unusual number of people dying. What’s unusual about Henry is that it’s one of just four rural localities in the state (the others are in coal country) that have more people moving out than moving in. Its out-migration numbers are higher than any of the other three. That’s the real mystery: Why isn’t Henry attracting more newcomers? If it did, the county would likely have more births, which would mitigate those death figures. Part of the solution could be next door in Pittsylvania: As more tenants are attracted to the Southern Virginia Megasite, those companies will need more workers, and some will likely locate nearby in Henry. The other part is closer to home: the Commonwealth Crossing industrial park in Henry County.
These population trends have policy implications
They say demographics are destiny. They also represent both challenges and opportunities for our government leaders — local, state and federal. Here’s how some of these trends might play out:
If you’re a Henry County official, you need to figure out how to attract more residents, but especially young parents or parents-to-be. If you’re a Danville official, you need to stay the course of what you’ve been doing because it’s clearly working.
If you’re, say, the governor, you need to be concerned that Fairfax County (the biggest locality in our biggest metro) and Hampton Roads (our second-biggest metro) are seeing more people move out than move in. These are our two biggest economic engines, but they seem to be sputtering demographically. You can be pleased that statewide, Virginia is seeing in-migration pick up — especially in almost all rural areas. However, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are trouble spots that would seem to demand special attention. We should give our new governor time to get through her first legislative session, but at some point afterwards, these are things I’d like to ask her about.
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