In their only debate in the 1980 presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan asked a single, devastating question that sank President Jimmy Carter’s already flagging reelection campaign: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
The answer, given the economy of the times, was clearly “no,” and voters resoundingly went with someone who they felt could change things.
It’s a question that might haunt Virginia Republicans in this year’s state elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates.
The Republican campaign this year is staked on Winsome Earle-Sears promising to be the equivalent of a second term for the term-limited Glenn Youngkin, who has been popular throughout his term — with, of course, some warnings about all the bad things Democrats would do if they had complete control of state government.
One complication to that plan came last week in the form of a Roanoke College poll that found, for the first time, more Virginians disapprove of Youngkin’s handling of the job than approve. This shift came in the context of overall happiness with President Donald Trump, with all Republicans suffering as a result. The one saving grace for Republicans was that this was a poll of registered voters, and history shows close to half of them won’t vote this fall. A different poll, by the pro-business Virginia FREE group, sampled only likely voters — and they remained more pro-Youngkin even while they were also anti-Trump. Still, some nuance there that Virginia Republicans can seize on.
However, a second complication arrived in inboxes Wednesday morning in the form of another Roanoke College poll, this one the school’s regular consumer sentiment poll. Its findings paint a dreary picture — even drearier for the party in power, which, for the most part these days, is the Republican Party.
The survey measures three different things, which match similar national polls: current conditions (what things are really like now), consumer expectations (how they think the economy will be in the future) and consumer sentiment (how people feel). All three measures have fallen sharply since November.
The particulars:
- Virginians’ assessment of current economic conditions has dropped 10.7 points since November.
- Their expectations have fallen 16.1 points since November, to their second lowest point in the 14-year history of the survey.
- Consumer sentiment, which takes both of those other measures into account, has now fallen to the second-lowest point in the survey’s history. Since November, consumer sentiment is down 14 points. That’s a steeper drop than in early 2020 when the pandemic hit.
The Roanoke College poll, overseen by economics professor Alice Louise Kassens (who is also a research fellow with the Federal Reserve), attributes these changes to “growing unease, particularly surrounding the economic implications of tariffs.”
The poll also finds that Virginians’ views on inflation have actually grown worse. Those surveyed now expect higher inflation in the short term than they did a year ago. Politically speaking, this is remarkable because Trump was elected on a promise that he’d bring down the inflation that raged under Joe Biden. Instead, those surveyed now expect higher inflation. Trump has said this is a “transition period” as his high-tariff policies kick in, but this is still the opposite of what voters expected.
Now let’s dig into the actual numbers.
1. Consumer metrics rallied with Trump’s election, then plummeted once he took office
For any Democrats still wondering why so many voters last year looked back nostalgically at Trump’s first term, here’s why: Before the pandemic, all the metrics in the Roanoke College consumer sentiment were quite high, sometimes at record highs — and have yet to return to those levels. Some remained reasonably high early in Biden’s term, but then fell as inflation took hold and never returned to the levels he had early on. When Trump was elected, consumer metrics rallied, but then fell again once he took office. It seemed likely that many voters fondly remembered good economic times under Trump 1.0 and thought Trump 2.0 would restore those, especially after the Biden-era inflation. Instead, those voters are now finding that Trump’s tariffs are causing economic unease they hadn’t bargained on.
Specifically:
Virginians’ views on current conditions hit record highs during Trump’s first term — twice hitting a score of 106.6 out of 150 before dropping to a record low of 55.8 under Biden. They rose to 71.5 after the election, but now the score is down to 60.8.
Consumer sentiment also hit record highs under Trump — maxing out at 98.7 before falling to a record low of 58.2 under Biden. The index rose to 77.6 after the election, but now is at 63.6.
Consumer expectations ranged from 83.6 to 97.1 under Trump, then fell to 63.6 under Biden. The index rebounded to 82.2 in August 2024, but that high point for Biden remained below the low point for Trump. Now it’s fallen to 65.4, just above Biden’s low point.
It seems clear that many voters last year thought they were electing one Trump and now find themselves with another. From Trump’s standpoint, he now finds himself saddled with the same poor consumer sentiment that Biden did, just for different reasons.
2. The number of Virginians who think they’re better off is slipping
The survey starts with a variation of that classic Reagan question — are you better off now than you were a year ago?
May 2024: 26.8% said they were better off, 29.8% said the same, 43.4% said they were worse off — a sign of the economic discontent that existed during Biden (and which Democrats dismissed at their peril).
May 2025: 21.8% said they are better off, 38.7% said they’re the same, 40.3% said they’re worse off.
That’s a bigger drop among those thinking they’re better off than among those saying things are worse off. Fewer people are seeing themselves make economic progress, more think they’re stuck, while the smallest change is among those who see their economic status improving. Overall, things are still weighted toward the negative end of the spectrum.
It always takes a while for any new president’s economic policies to be felt. The problem for Republicans is that many people say they’re feeling the impact of Trump’s policies — and they’re making things worse.
3. Virginians are becoming more pessimistic about the future
This may be the worst news for Republicans going into an election year: Virginians are now more pessimistic about the economy than they were under Biden.
May 2024: 35.3% thought things would be better in a year’s time, 45.2% thought things would be the same, only 19.5% thought things would be worse.
That wasn’t exactly the best outlet. Although most Virginians didn’t vote for Trump, when Roanoke College surveyed people after the election, people were feeling more optimistic. Whether that’s because they saw the economy improving, or whether they thought it would improve under Trump, is hard to say. All we can say for certain is that Virginians were feeling better about the future in November.
November 2024: 43.9% thought things would be better in a year’s time, 34.3% thought they would be the same, 21.7% thought they would be worse off. The big shift from the May survey was among those who thought things would be getting better.
Now, though, those expectations have crashed and are lower than they were a year ago.
May 2025: 30.4% think things will be better off in a year’s time, 37.1% think they’ll be the same, while 32.5% think they’ll be worse off.
It’s easier for politicians to lead voters through a rough patch in the economy if people are convinced better times are ahead. The danger now for Republicans is people don’t.
4. A majority now thinks the economy is worse off under Trump than under Biden
A year ago, not many people thought the economy was getting better.
May 2024: 18.7% thought the economy was better off than a year prior, 33.9% thought it was the same, 47.4% thought things were worse off.
Those were terrible numbers for a Democratic president headed into a reelection campaign — and they became a problem for his vice president once Biden dropped out.
By November, impressions had changed for the better, but that didn’t help Kamala Harris, or Democrats in general. That 18.7% “better off” figure rose a little to 23.9%, while the “worse off” dropped from 47.4% to 38.6%. Not exactly “happy days are here again,” but things seemed to be improving a little.
Now they’re not.
May 2025: Now only 17.3% think things are better off, lower than a year ago. 27.3% think things are the same, while those thinking things are worse off has shot up to 55.5%.
This isn’t just short-term pessimism, it’s long-term pessimism
A year ago, 54.2% thought the next five years would bring “periods of widespread unemployment or depression.” Meanwhile, 40.3% saw good times ahead
By November, that “bad times” figure had dropped to 50.7% while those expecting good times rose to 47.2%. As before, we don’t know whether Virginians’ moods had improved because they saw the economy improving or simply felt it would improve under Trump. We just know that the dark cloud seemed to be lifting.
Now, though, Virginians are more pessimistic about the long-term state of the economy than they were a year ago — with 59% feeling bad times lay ahead, with those seeing good times down to 39.4%. This is not the direction any president wants these trend lines to go. That’s higher than it’s been since early in Biden’s presidency, when the “bad times” measure hit 62.4% in May 2022.
Here’s why this matters so much.
5. Consumer spending drives the economy, but consumers are warning against big spending
The economy isn’t run by Wall Street or shadowy international cabals; 70% of economic activity comes from consumer spending — so what consumers think about the economy matters a lot. If they think the economy is going south, and they pull back spending, that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That’s why politicians spend a lot of time persuading people that things are going well.
A year ago, 61.4% thought it was a bad time to make big purchases — “such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that,” as the survey asked the question. By November, the percentage saying that was down to 51.4%. Now it’s back up to 62.2%, slightly higher than a year ago.
6. The bottom line, economically: People aren’t feeling the good things
While Virginians are feeling pessimistic about the economy, those feelings are at odds with certain hard statistics. Wages are growing faster than inflation, for instance. Employment is increasing, albeit slightly. However, Kassans says, “uncertainty is weighing heavily on consumers, particularly around tariffs. This uncertainty is reflected in both short- and long-term inflation expectations, which remain elevated despite recent easing in actual inflation rates.”
Under Biden, Democrats tried to persuade Americans that things were getting better. Perhaps statistically, they were in some categories, but people didn’t feel that. Now Republicans may find themselves in the same situation. “If sentiment continues to decline, we may see a pullback in spending that could slow economic growth or even trigger a recession,” Kassans warns.
None of these findings in the Roanoke College poll are unique to Virginia. A new WalletHub report out Wednesday found the same things nationally:
Consumer confidence is down 27% from a year ago, the sharpest drop since the pandemic year of 2020.
Interest in buying a car? Down 32% since a year ago.
Interest in buying a new home? Down 30% since a year ago.
Likelihood of making other large purchases? Down 22% since a year ago.
And on and on …
7. The bottom line, politically: Virginia Republicans have a challenge before them
Youngkin has been touting a strong economy, and that would normally give Earle-Sears something to run on. The problem, as we just saw, is that people aren’t feeling it. They’re anxious, uncertain — and, as we saw in last week’s polling, they’re blaming Trump (and other Republicans). Politically, it may be a better time to be a challenger than an incumbent. Given these polls, Virginia Republicans have to persuade voters that they are better able to manage the economy — even though people seem to be blaming Trump for making a weak economy worse. It’s always easier, though, for the party out of power to promise to make things better than it is for the party in power to explain things away (as Democrats discovered last November).
To put things charitably, Earle-Sears’ response to Trump’s downsizing of federal jobs has not been particularly empathetic. Earlier this year, she said, “How many of you have ever lost a job? Oh you mean it’s not unusual? It happens to everybody all the time? Okay, and the media is making this out to be this huge, huge thing. And I don’t understand why.” There’s got to be a better Republican response than that. That’s not exactly “I feel your pain.”
Virginia Republicans are certainly not devoid of issues. They’ve already signaled they will warn that Democratic energy policies will drive up utility rates — and even some Democrats now seem to be signaling that they may need to rethink certain unspecified portions of the party’s renewable energy agenda (more on that in a future column). Still, these latest polls, the political ones last week and this economic one this week, show just how unfavorable the ground may be for Virginia Republicans in 2025.
How’s the early voting in the June 17 primaries going so far? I’m doing regular updates on the latest early voting trends in West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out Friday afternoons. You can sign up for that and our other newsletters here:
