Where do we go now?
Axl Rose melodically repeats that question 19 times (or so) in Guns N’ Roses’ 1988 hit song “Sweet Child o’ Mine.”
That question may be getting asked with similar repetition by Cardinal News readers who are either ready for full-on spring after weeks of persistent hand-cracking deep chill or, conversely, underwhelmed and disappointed by the snowfall that managed to bury New Orleans but fall well short of what most would expect from a nearly monthlong Arctic outbreak for the majority of our Southwest and Southside Virginia region. (Higher elevations in the Southwest corner of Virginia are excluded; they have cashed in on the southern end of West Virginia’s snowfall bounty.)
In the short term, we are having a mid-winter thaw, with 40s and 50s highs most days this week, and some 60s (maybe briefly 70s?) highs may be afoot for at least some in our region by next week. As the groundhog does whatever he’s going to do with his shadow Sunday, spring fever will be in the air as the deep cold retreats to where it normally resides a thousand or more miles north of us.
Before we ponder where we are going with the rest of winter (if you want to get right to that, you can TL:DR past the next three subheads), let’s recap where we’ve been.
Coldest January and winter in years
Had the month ended Monday, January 2025 would rank as the sixth to ninth coldest January on record, according to National Weather Service data, at its four major climate stations in our region with data going back more than a century — Blacksburg (24.6 degrees F average January 2024 temperature through Jan. 27), Danville (31.3), Lynchburg (29.6) and Roanoke (30.3). With a few days of above-normal temperatures to end the month this week, those averages will wiggle upward and the rankings wiggle downward a few spots before the month ends on Friday.
What will likely end up around a 10th or 12th ranking cold January appears as if it will be the coldest January in our region since 2014. January 2025 has averaged about 8-9 degrees colder than January 2024 did and around 13-15 degrees colder than January 2023. That has made it feel all that much colder with our muscle memory of some recent mild winters.
For the period Dec. 1 to Jan. 27, or nearly two-thirds of meteorological winter, the 2024-25 winter ranks near 20th coldest all time at all four locations. Unless February ends up blazing warm, it appears likely that this winter will be among the coldest third of winters historically.
As we noted last week, snowfall totals are generally running 3-7 inches across most of the region, which is on track to be near seasonal norms in Southside but running behind along the U.S. 460 (Lynchburg-Roanoke-Christiansburg/Blacksburg) and Interstate 81 (Lexington-Roanoke-New River Valley-Wytheville-Abingdon) corridors. Higher elevation areas west of Interstate 77 are running on pace for above-normal winter snowfall, with some spots, like Clintwood, already over two feet for the season.
The cold pattern has also been largely a dry one throughout much of December and January, continuing the trend of many months prior aside from autumn’s tropical downpours. Much of our region is considered abnormally dry in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Winter storm tracks mostly miss our region
There have been four synoptic windows for possible larger winter storms in our region.
The first, Jan. 5-6, was mostly freezing rain and sleet after some early snow, the heaviest snow going to our north. The ice was significant with many thousands of power outages. The second, Jan. 10-11, produced widespread snowfall of 1-4 inches with some higher amounts near the North Carolina line, as systems in the northern and southern branch of the jet stream couldn’t quite link up for a larger storm.
The third, Jan. 19, edged mostly northwest of our region, but brought a few inches of snow to the southwest and western fringes of our region. The fourth, Jan. 20-21, quite famously dumped historic 6-10-inch snowfall on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast and then tracked along the coast of the Carolinas into the Hampton Roads area of Virginia with many 4-8-inch amounts, brushing some eastern counties of Southside with a dusting.
Much of our region was alternately a little too far south, then a little too far north, then too far southeast, then too far northwest for the heaviest snow this month. There is no deep climatic mystery at work in that, just good/bad breaks in storm tracks, depending on if you want snow or not, relative to our little corner of the map. Again, we have to carve out the higher elevations of the corner Southwest and perhaps some other places near the West Virginia and North Carolina borders that have had some fairly ample snow relative to normal.
Our region is not the only part of the nation that has experienced very cold but dry weather in January, definitely not the largest nor the most extreme, as much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest is running hugely behind its typically rather large snow totals this deep into winter. Omaha, Nebraska, has had only 1 inch of snow for the season, less than any location in our region and far less than New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola and other Gulf Coast locations.
Despite relatively low snowfall totals in much of our region, many higher elevations and north-facing, shaded hillsides (i.e. my yard) have kept some icy snowpack for more than three weeks, owing both to extremely cold temperatures and the compacted ice nature of the first storm.
So, where do we go now?
So far, this winter has turned out fairly similarly to what was predicted here back on Dec. 4 — cold but largely dry. It has been colder than the previous two winters — much colder — and, excluding those Southwest corner higher elevations, has had difficulty matching moisture with cold periods, specific to our region.
The longwave pattern that featured strong high pressure over western North America — leading to unseasonable warmth in Alaska — and a deep southward-diving jet stream over the eastern two thirds of North America in much of January, with high pressure near the North Pole and Greenland to keep the cold air locked in, has collapsed.
That is why the bone-chilling cold has relented and warm-feeling 40s and 50s — near or only slightly above early February norms, and quite common in the last two winters — have resumed. The first week of February might bring an even warmer surge to our region.
But might that cold pattern rebuild, at least partially? Or will the weak La Niña (cool equatorial Pacific waters) that has finally developed influence its typical pattern favoring mild to warm temperatures over the South and East most of the rest of February and into March?
Here are some possibilities for the future of this winter in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage, and by extension most of Virginia in general, with some reasonable probabilities.
That’s pretty much it for winter: 25% chance
Two winters in a row I’ve assigned this possibility a 10% chance in January. Two winters in a row, it has been the course that has prevailed.
In honor of its victory in both of the prior winters I have covered weather for Cardinal News, and perhaps learning from past mistakes, I will list it first and raise its chances of happening to 1 in 4.
With a mid-winter thaw underway and strongly mixed signals beyond 10 days or so about whether there might be a deep resurgence of Arctic air, the possibility that winter just doesn’t come back in any meaningful way for our region is at least plausible. It’s quite likely that, at the least, the worst of the cold air is behind us.
To be clear, this possible outcome doesn’t mean absolutely no cold weather going forward, nor does it mean we won’t have any snow or wintry mix at all. It also doesn’t necessarily mean it will turn warm and we’ll bask in 60s and 70s high temperatures most of February with an early arriving spring.
It just means that the rest of winter would lean to above-normal temperatures and have no prolonged cold periods beyond about three days and any snow or ice, should it happen, would be minor and brief over most of our region.
Winter may flirt with us — like it did in mid-February 2024 and mid-March 2023 — but we won’t be dancing with it, if this course comes about yet again.
Fairly normal February and early March: 50% chance
The option I am favoring heavily at this stage, a coin-flip chance, is for what on balance would be a pretty normal February and first half of March.
That is, temperatures that move between milder and colder periods but average within a couple degrees of historic norms, with at least some snow or wintry mix, perhaps even a moderate winter storm or two. (Moderate winter storm here is defined as 2-6 inches of snow and/or 0.1 to 0.25 inch ice accretion covering at least half of our Southwest/Southside Virginia coverage area.)
At this stage, there just isn’t much in the long-range signals that suggests either prolonged runaway warmth with 60s-70s highs for many days, nor a deep Arctic plunge for weeks like we just had in January. There is very much a trend toward milder weather to start February, but some signs of potential Arctic air pushes beyond that which would make it cold again at times.
Snow fans should not dread the possibility of a normal February — it is our snowiest month on average historically, and we often are more in line for more of the 2-6-inch type “moderate” snowfalls and occasionally something bigger when we have a period of 40s highs/20s lows rather than deep and dry Arctic cold that dominated January. The boundary between mild and cold where storm systems form needs to be a little closer to us for significant snowfall than it was with the big Arctic highs in January pushing it out into the Gulf of Mexico/America/whatever.
A normal February may or may not end up snowier than a frigid January has, but mostly, it would just mean we wouldn’t be having an early spring.
Hard Arctic reload: 20% chance
The possibility that deep Arctic cold returns for many days or a couple or three weeks is not in the trash can, yet.
High pressure that has brought extraordinary warmth and lack of snow to much of Alaska this winter looks as if it might rebuild by mid-February, and that could drive more Arctic cold air deep into the U.S., though exactly which parts are uncertain. If some other blocking high pressure develops over Greenland and the North Pole, such a cold push could get locked in a while across the central and eastern U.S., again.
A resurgence of Arctic air probably wouldn’t be quite as cold or prolonged as what we experienced in January, and there’s a pretty solid chance it could encounter more moisture, with the storm track not driven as far south as what produced the Gulf Coast snowstorm, considering the later arrival relative to the season. So if Arctic air returns in force, it probably would be snowier and/or icier than it was before for our region.
Snow lovers want to roll the dice on this, even though a snowy outcome is not guaranteed, while those ready for spring would want to skip this entirely.
Winter in March: 5% chance
Recent weather history has shown how February could be normal to mild with winter charging back in March. 2013 and 2018 are recent examples of this happening, with multiple snow events and repeating Arctic cold fronts into latter March.
The lean here is strongly against a wintry March, and in fact, mid to late March may turn quite warm compared to most of the winter as the last of the Arctic air pours itself out in February and early March and a more La Niña-like mild pattern finally sets in.
So spring would not be early or late, but right on time, if what I expect transpires regarding this possibility.
Wild-card chance: Just one big winter storm
Embedded in any of the possibilities above is the potential that the remainder of winter into early spring could bring about one big memorable winter storm — snowfall of over 6 inches and/or ice over a quarter-inch over at least half our region — and not much else of note in a wintry flavor.
I haven’t assigned it a probability because this could happen with winter and early spring otherwise being mild to warm, or within a fairly normal temperature regime, or part of returning Arctic air in late February or March. It just takes one short-term setup and a brief injection of colder air.
My lean here is against this happening, mainly because it is statistically and historically unlikely, and also because the atmospheric pattern so far has not favored the kind of deeply moist, dynamic storm systems that would make something like this possible.
But never say never that a one-off big winter storm could yet happen for our region, especially if temperatures become more choppy, alternating between mild and cold periods, perhaps providing the boundaries and atmospheric dynamics to better develop such a system.
Earlier we mentioned that this looks to be the coldest January since 2014. We were in a similar place with that winter as many of us in the region are now — weeks of very cold temperatures, but only a little snow. We had a thaw near the end of January and start of February.
On Feb. 12-13, 2014, with many of the climatic oscillations in opposite phases from what we normally look for to get significant wintry weather, a low-pressure system formed along the Gulf Coast and climbed up the Eastern Seaboard. Just about everyone in our region got at least 6 inches of snow and most got over a foot, with several locations in the New River and Roanoke valleys and along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke topping 20 inches.
Then it warmed up quickly and melted away.
History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes, Mark Twain is reputed to have said. We’ll see in weeks ahead whether or not the 2024-25 winter, a notably hard winter for its weeks of waterfall-freezing deep chill, gets a signature winter storm also.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: