The skies got progressively darker on Tuesday afternoon as temperatures hung in the upper teens to mid-20s across Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area.
It sure looked like snow. Moisture was indeed streaming northward in the mid to high levels of our atmosphere, into extremely cold and deep Arctic air.
But for the vast majority of our region, there was very little or none, though a light dusting did cover some eastern parts of Southside near Kerr Reservoir/Buggs Island Lake and Interstate 85.
It was just too dry aloft, and the core of moisture and lift that could saturate that dryness and condense moisture into enough ice crystals to pour to the surface were passing well to our south.
Meanwhile, images of palm trees covered in snow came in from along the Gulf Coast, stretching from Houston through New Orleans to Mobile and Pensacola, where 4 to 10 inches of snow was common. Similar scenes developed overnight along the coasts of the Carolinas as far north as the Hampton Roads area of Virginia.
It’s mind-blowing to think Lafayette, Louisiana, got 10.5 inches of snow, more than has fallen all season so far at Minneapolis, Chicago, New York or Philadelphia. It’s a lot more than Anchorage, Alaska, has had during the meteorological winter season — 3.8 inches since Dec. 1 — but of course Anchorage got over 2 feet in the fall.
Aside from the higher elevation areas in our southwest corner and western border, that’s more than has fallen in our region so far this season also, especially with Sunday’s storm having only brushed the western fringe of our area with any accumulating snow and then Tuesday night’s storm brushing east.
Here is a quick rundown of snow totals in inches from Dec. 1 through Tuesday for the 10 sites that I have used in the Cardinal Weather snowfall contest, listed from most to least, both for comparison to the locations mentioned above and to gauge where you may rate in this year’s contest.
Clintwood, 25.4; Burke’s Garden, 13.0; Appomattox, 5.7; Blacksburg, 5.5; Lynchburg, 4.7; Danville, 4.3; Abingdon, 4.0; Martinsville, 3.8; Wytheville, 3.7; Roanoke, 3.0.
Roanoke snow fans are getting a little anxious, having seen the best snow go north then south in two storms early this month, then pass entirely northwest and entirely southeast in the past four days. But as I’ve pointed out, the payment may have come due both for robbing Southside for a couple extra inches in the one snowfall last winter — the first winter in 35 years the Star City got more than Blacksburg — and for being near the bullseye of the Jan. 16, 2022, winter storm, getting 8 inches. That’s as much as New Orleans got Tuesday.
It’s quite natural to see snow events pass north of us — though Northern Virginia and D.C. snow fans are quick to remind us we’ve gotten a foot-plus storm in our region, Dec. 9-10, 2018, since their last one on Jan. 22-23, 2016. But it’s infrequent they pass south of us, and ridiculously unusual that a snowstorm hugs the Gulf Coast. This was the deepest snow in 60 to 130 years for many locations from the Texas shore to the Florida Panhandle.
So why did this happen?
It was alluded to a week ago in this space that there was a chance of snow coming about Tuesday or Wednesday of the next week, but it looked very much like it might be suppressed, or pushed far south. Well, that happened.
High pressure delivering Arctic air was just too strong, too broad, and centered a little too far south and east to allow a storm track that would stream enough moisture into the western half of Virginia for a significant snowfall. That spigot was aimed just a little farther eastward.
This is not the first time we’ve seen this happen, but it’s been some years since we’ve missed a winter storm mostly to the south. February 2020 is the last time. Major Southeast U.S. snowstorms in February 1973 and December 1989 (a foot at Myrtle Beach) were also pressed south and east of us by extremely strong Arctic high pressure. And then there was December 2004, which brought a white Christmas even deeper south in Texas than Tuesday — all the way to Brownsville at the southern tip, the first accumulating snow there since 1895 — before streaking northeast and, like this one, brushing across Hampton Roads.
Most snowstorms that miss us go west, northwest or north of us, but a few go south and east — sometimes very far to the south.
Below-zero chill
While most locations bottomed out in the single-digits to lower teens the past few days, at least three locations in and near our region dipped below zero.
Most notable is Copper Hill in Floyd County, which recorded a low of minus 12 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday morning. Burke’s Garden in Tazewell County dipped to minus 5, and Hot Springs in Bath County dropped to minus 2. Localized geography combined with radiational cooling and snow cover likely contributed to all three of these colder low temperatures.
The Virginia Tech-maintained sensor site at Canaan Valley, West Virginia, dipped to minus 19 degrees on Tuesday morning. Prime radiational cooling conditions with no wind or clouds did not fully manifest, which might have sent the temperature dipping below minus 30 there on a very local basis.
Where we go from here?
A week from now may be a good time for the “what happens with the rest of winter” outlook. But for now, let’s take a look at a shorter term, the rest of January into early February.
It does look like our temperatures modify pretty quickly out of this extremely cold stretch by the weekend and next week, with more 40s highs and maybe some 50s at times, and lows rising more to the 20s and 30s. There are no more obvious winter storm risks this week, though some snow showers may blow over the mountains a time or two.
There is a potential precipitation system early next week. Temperatures will be milder than they are now, but possibly cold enough for some risk of wintry precipitation in at least part of our region. Something to fine-tune as we get closer.
In general, through the end of the month, there is no solid indication of a repeat of the recent Arctic outbreak, though there will likely be some new cold fronts, nor is there any likelihood of a prolonged warmup. Probably some gentle up and down movement in temperatures near seasonal norms, which are generally 40s highs and 20s lows.
February is the snowiest month historically for most of our region, and there are at least some indications of new Arctic air masses moving down, though the first week of February may tilt mild.
We quite possibly have seen our coldest temperatures of this particular winter, but probably aren’t close to having had our last brush with wintry precipitation — and we probably haven’t seen our most widespread or biggest snowfall yet, either.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
