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In the three-way Roanoke mayor’s race, independent Stephanie Moon Reynolds has almost as much cash on hand as Democrat Joe Cobb and Republican David Bowers combined, a consequence of her personal donations to her campaign.
Meanwhile, in Lynchburg, the Republican candidate for the most contested council seat has more money available than all the other candidates for the Lynchburg City Council combined. For another comparison: Republican Jacqueline Timmer has raised more money for a seat representing just one-quarter of Lynchburg than any of the Roanoke mayoral candidates has raised to run citywide in a bigger city.
Those were the two biggest takeaways from the latest round of campaign finance reports, which were filed Monday for candidates seeking local offices this fall. These reports came out just days before early voting starts on Friday.
Before we delve into the numbers, let me deliver my customary warning when dealing with campaign finance reports: Money isn’t everything. A candidate doesn’t need to outraise the other side; a candidate just needs enough money to get his or her message out. This year, candidates for local office don’t even need to worry about driving turnout. In a presidential election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will take care of that. Candidates for local office do, however, need to get their message out to a much bigger electorate than some have had to do in the past. In the case of Lynchburg, this is the first time that council elections in the city’s four wards have coincided with a presidential race, meaning the potential electorate there could be 2.5 times bigger than ever before. Still, fundraising does mean something … we often just don’t know what until after the election.
With that preface, let’s see what we know for these reports, which cover fundraising from July 1 to Aug. 31. As always, we’re indebted to the Virginia Public Access Project for taking these reports filed with the State Board of Elections and making them accessible online. I also don’t like to let any fundraising column pass without pointing out that this column is brought to you by the generosity of our readers, who make this kind of journalism possible. Here’s how to support us.
Roanoke mayor: Moon Reynolds uses her own money to compete
Roanoke’s Democratic mayor, Sherman Lea, is retiring, and there’s a three-way race to succeed him that involves the city’s vice mayor (Cobb), a former mayor (Bowers, who has switched parties) and a sitting member of the council (Moon Reynolds).
Over the long haul of the campaign, Cobb is the top fundraiser. He opened his campaign account last year and since then has raised $46,801. Moon Reynolds has raised $39,472. Bowers has raised $18,489.
If we look just at the most recent two-month time period — a view that sometimes can give us a sense of momentum — then the picture changes. Over July and August, Moon Reynolds raised $27,997, Cobb $14,197 and Bowers $8,978.
However, the word “raised” here might be misleading. Moon Reynolds’ top donor for the period was herself: $18,055 of that $27,997 came from the candidate. For comparison, Cobb’s top two gave $1,000 apiece Bowers’ top donor gave $5,000.
When it comes to spending money on signs and other forms of advertisement, the source of the money doesn’t really matter. Here’s what could matter: Going into the fall campaign, Moon Reynolds had the most cash available. She has $16,173 available to spend, compared to $11,387 for Bowers and $9,952 for Cobb.
There are ways to spin this for the benefit of each candidate, all of them true.
Moon Reynolds raises more than her two opponents combined; has the most cash on hand
Cobb is overall fundraiser in Roanoke mayor’s race
As for Bowers, well, it’s always hard to spin being last but, realistically, Bowers may not need as much money as the other candidates since he’s arguably the best-known of the three candidates by virtue of his 16 previous years in the mayor’s seat.
I recently had a reader ask me for my appraisal of the race; the reader really disliked one candidate and, given the dynamics of a three-way race, wanted to vote for the more likely of the other two. I declined; in the absence of scientific polling, it’s hard to do anything other than guess and I don’t want to be responsible for advising somebody how to vote. Based on these fundraising numbers, though, this appears to be a competitive race all around.
Roanoke council: McGuire has the most cash; Hagen raises the most during the summer
UPDATED now that numbers are complete:
Democrat Terry McGuire has the most cash on hand as we head into the fall campaign. However, Republican Nick Hagen was the most prolific fundraiser for the two-month reporting period.
Roanoke has three council seats available. Here’s how the candidates stack up in terms of cash on hand:
Terry McGuire (D): $16,436
Nick Hagen (R): $8,757
Evelyn Powers (I): $6,744
Jim Garrett (R): $5,644
Phazhon Nash (D): $3,089
Benjamin Woods (D): $1,513
Cathy Reynolds (I) $50
Here’s how they rank in terms of fundraising during July and August:
Nick Hagen (R): $ 9,959
Terry McGuire (D): $7,854
Evelyn Powers (I) : $7,543
Jim Garrett (R): $5,743
Phazhon Nash (D): $3,505
Benjamin Woods (D): $810
Cathy Reynolds (I): $595
The three Democrats all competed in a party primary in June so their year-to-do date fundraising totals tend to be higher because of that, although some of that money was spent to win that race. The top fundraisers for the year overall:
Terry McGuire (D): $37,761
Phazhon Nash (D): $27,999
Jim Garrett (R): $16,503
Nick Hagen (R) 16,458
Benjamin Woods (D): $13,646
Evelyn Powers (I): $8,427
Cathy Reynolds (I): $881
My observations: Because Roanoke tilts Democratic, the Democratic candidates may not need as much money. However, the presence of independents in the race, particularly Evelyn Powers, elected five times as city treasurer as a Democrat, could scramble the dynamics. I do notice that she has a nice amount of cash going into the fall, and that Woods does not. Hagen ran strong in his previous try for council and I notice he is well-funded this year, as well. Because the year-to-date figures are inflated by the Democratic primary, I’m mostly focused on the cash on hand here (and the recent fundraising).
Lynchburg: Timmer is the Midas candidate
To give a sense of how much money Timmer has in her Ward 1 race, let’s approach this backwards.
In Ward 2, incumbent Sterling Wilder, a Democrat, has filed a report that shows his fundraising for the period was precisely … zero. He raised no money, spent no money — and has all of $280 in the bank.
Republican challenger Rodney Hubbard has $1,024 in the bank and the report for independent Taormina Howard hadn’t shown up online Monday night.
In Ward 3, where Republican incumbent Jeff Helgeson unexpectedly announced his intention to retire recently and Curt Diemer was quickly nominated in his place, Diemer has raised just $10 — and still has it. Democrat James Coleman has $7,227 on hand.
In Ward 4, Republican incumbent Chris Faraldi has $4,257 on hand while Democrat April Watson has $1,459 on hand.
All these are what I’d call more “normal” figures for a city council race, especially in a city such as Lynchburg where these candidates are running to represent just one-quarter of the city.
Timmer, though, has $28,916 in hand. By contrast, Democrat Randy Smith has $6,033 in the bank and independent Cameron Craddock Howe has $2,053 ready to spend.
That means Timmer not only has nearly five times as much as her nearest financial competitor (Smith), she has more than 3.5 times as much cash on hand as her two opponents combined.
In fact, she has more money on hand than all the other candidates in Lynchburg combined.
For simplicity’s sake, notice that I’ve focused here just on cash on hand. If we look at total fundraising over the whole duration of the campaign, Timmer has raised $73,911 compared to $10,050 for Smith and $9,383 for Howe.
Will that translate into votes? I have no idea. All I know is that Ward I historically has been a competitive ward but the fundraising there this year is not.
One curiosity in the Lynchburg reports: Helgeson, who recently dropped out, shows no money raised and no spent during July and August. That suggests to me that his withdrawal, which came just before the deadline, had been in the works awhile.
Salem: Who needs to spend money to campaign in Salem?
From the campaign finance reports, you wouldn’t even know there was a city council race going on in Salem, where four candidates are seeking three seats. Incumbent Renee Turk raised $1,504, which made her the biggest fundraiser by far. Incumbent Jim Wallace raised just $102 while Ann Marie Green and John Saunders didn’t raise a dime. Or a penny. Both filed reports showing their fundraising for the summer at $0.
In terms of cash on hand, Wallace does have $8,717, so in Salem that gives him the luxury of not having to go out and raise money. Turk has $1,339, Green $163 and Saunders just $7.
Other races
Campaign finance reports for candidates in Bristol, Danville, Martinsville and Radford were incomplete Monday night.
Where do they stand?
Money, though, remains secondary to the issues. If you want to know where these candidates stand, you can check out the answers to the questionnaires that we sent them — which are posted in our Voter Guide. We have 100% participation from candidates in Roanoke and Salem, and are missing just one candidate each in Lynchburg, Martinsville and Radford. If those, or candidates elsewhere, need us to resend the link, let us know at elections@cardinalnews.org.
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