We already have our first surprise of the 2027 General Assembly elections and the calendar hasn’t even turned yet.
Late Monday night, state Sen. Luther Cifers, R-Prince Edward County, announced on social media that he will not seek reelection next year to a safely Republican seat — and endorsed former Del. Mark Earley Jr. for the seat.
It’s not unusual for a retiring legislator to endorse a potential successor, although in this case there are interesting backstories.
That district, which sprawls from just outside Lynchburg to just outside Richmond, is home to a former Republican state legislator who has sought the nomination before and might do so again: Amanda Chase Scott, formerly of Chesterfield County but now a resident of Appomattox County. She has long been at odds with the Senate Republican leadership — at one point she left the Republican caucus because she objected to then-Minority Leader Tommy Norment — and signaled Tuesday that Earley may not get the nomination without a fight. In a statement to Cardinal News, Chase Scott suggested that Earley is a “handpicked candidate” and said she was mulling a bid.
Republican leaders might have good reason to want to avoid a nomination fight: Democrats are gearing up to make a push to flip up to six Republican-held seats in the state Senate next year. Democrats currently hold a bare 21-19 majority but Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax County, has already proclaimed that “Virginia Senate Democrats are going 27 in ’27.” It’s easy to see where some Republicans might think it’s best to rally around a Cifers successor now and not spend their money on a contested nomination in a bright-red district; better to save their resources to defend Republicans who might face stiff challenges elsewhere.
By day’s end Tuesday, Earley was already rolling out endorsements — most notably from Del. Tom Garrett of Buckingham County, Del. Tommy Wright of Lunenburg County and Kirby Burch, the president of the Virginia Hunting Dog Alliance, a group whose members can be a powerful force in a Republican nomination.
The background: Cifers holds the state Senate seat that Republican John McGuire held before he was elected to Congress in 2024. Cifers won a multiballot party mass meeting to get the nomination — Chase Scott was one of the contenders — and then breezed to a special election win. This upcoming session will be his second year in the legislature — and the last.
This was Cifers’ first foray into politics. He is the founder and president of YakAttack, a Farmville-based company that makes kayaking equipment.
“After much prayer and reflection, it has become clear that circumstances now requiring my attention will keep me from giving this job the full commitment it demands and the people of the 10th District deserve,” Cifers said in his statement. “This is one of the hardest decisions I have ever made but this seat belongs to the people, not me.”
Cifers said that Earley “has my complete confidence” and cited his 100% ratings from the Family Foundation and the Virginia Citizens Defense League. Earley, an attorney, was elected in 2023 to a district that covers part of Chesterfield County. He served a single term before being defeated in 2025 by Democrat Leslie Mehta. Sometime within the past year, he moved to Powhatan County, which means he’s now in the district that Cifers has represented.
“Our Commonwealth is suffering from complete Democrat control,” Earley said in a statement on social media. He said that Democrats “have attempted to silence conservative and rural voices … dismissed the sanctity of human life, trampled on our Second Amendment and eroded our constitutional rights.” He went on to say: “We’re living in chaotic times. But we’re at an inflection point, with the possibility for renewal.”
Chase Scott also put out a statement. In an email to Cardinal News she said, “I am giving it serious consideration.” She said she’d make a decision “sometime before the end of January. Handpicked candidates are usually the candidates picked by the Republican Senate Caucus, not the people. … I believe the people of Senate District 10 should have a choice picked by the people, not the Republican Senate Caucus.”
The district has a solid Republican history. In this year’s U.S. Senate race, Republican Bert Mizusawa carried the precincts in the district with 56.5% of the vote, even as he lost statewide with 38.37% of the vote.
The population weight of the district is on the eastern side, just outside Richmond. The most populous locality in the district is Hanover County, which accounts for 18.05% of the voters, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, even though only part of Hanover is in the district. The second biggest is Powhatan County at 14.30%, followed by Goochland County at 13.64%.
One Democrat, Jessica Robinson, has already filed to run in this district next year.
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