Of the five Democrats challenging Republican House incumbents in Virginia, only one enters the final month of the campaign with more money in the bank than their opponent — and that contest is a mismatch that raises the prospect of an upset in an unlikely rural district.
Tom Perriello has a 2-to-1 cash advantage over John McGuire in the 5th District, a normally Republican district that this year sits on the edge of Democratic hopes. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has declared it a targeted race, but the main Democratic political action committee funding House races hasn’t invested money in the 5th the way it has in other districts. Nonetheless, the only public poll from a neutral source in that district shows a close race, with McGuire just barely ahead. The latest campaign finance reports, which came out Friday, show Perriello with a commanding lead in campaign cash.
That’s in distinct contrast to races that have gotten more official attention. In the 2nd District in Hampton Roads, which is considered the state’s closest contest, Republican Jen Kiggans has more money than Democrat Elaine Luria. In the 1st District, where national Democrats are also investing resources, Republican Rob Wittman had more money than Democrat Shannon Taylor. In the 6th District, which Democrats have also said is targeted but haven’t invested money in, Republican Ben Cline has more cash at his disposal than Democrat Beth Macy, despite her impressive fundraising efforts.
As with any column I write about campaign finance, I must caution that money does not mean nearly as much as many people think it does. (In last year’s attorney general’s race, Republican Jason Miyares had a clear financial advantage over Democrat Jay Jones, but Jones won anyway because that’s how the tide last year was running.) The key is not whether a candidate has more money than the other side, but whether a candidate has enough to get his or her message out — and then whether that message resonates with voters. We must be mindful of the old story about the dog food company that spent a fortune marketing its product and couldn’t understand why sales weren’t better. “Maybe the dogs don’t like it,” was the response. The dogs in this case are voters.
My main takeaway from these campaign finance reports is that while all the fundamentals this year seem to favor Democrats — midterms typically go against the president’s party — Republicans have sufficient resources to combat strong Democratic challengers in every district except one. Perriello’s strong financial position over McGuire in the 5th matches up with early voting trends that show early voting up strongly in Democratic areas while it’s flat or down in many Republican areas. I’ve examined those trends in a previous column, and each week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter, and will revisit them again next week. The 5th, which stretches from Albemarle County to the North Carolina line, is fundamentally a hard district for Democrats to win, but between money and early voting, there are warning signs flashing for Republicans in that district.
Here’s an overview of the campaign finance reports. I’ve sorted them into three categories: total amount raised, total raised this quarter (which sometimes shows momentum) and cash on hand. I always gravitate to that last one as my preferred figure. Maybe campaigns have spent money wisely until now, or maybe they’ve squandered it; we don’t really know yet. However, cash on hand shows what a campaign is capable of spending, and the other side should always assume their opponent will spend that money wisely (even if they don’t).
Some of the reports list what candidates have spent, but parts of the Federal Election Commission site haven’t been updated, so I’ve only included that data where it’s available for both candidates. I’ve also skipped over independents because their fundraising totals are almost nothing. We do list all the candidates on our Voter Guide, and independents have often been more keen to respond to our issues questionnaire than the major party candidates.
U.S. Senate: Warner (D) has almost 33 times as much money as Mizusawa (R)
Total raised: Warner $27,124,896, Mizusawa $1,034,543
Raised this quarter: Warner $2,014,319, Mizusawa $614,320
Total spending: Warner $20,030,247, Mizusawa $805,376
Cash on hand: Warner $7,533,059, Mizusawa $229,502
It takes a lot of money to run a competitive race statewide. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, has it. Republican Bert Mizusawa does not. Mizusawa has raised less than some House candidates. Warner, who says he’s seeking his final term, is cutting no corners. He’s no doubt mindful that the better he does statewide, the better other Democrats on the ticket might do.
1st District: Wittman (R) has more than twice as much as Taylor (D)
Total raised: Wittman $5,179,154, Taylor $4,106,497
Raised this quarter: Taylor $2,051,990, Wittman $1,162,965
Cash on hand: Wittman $2,190,517, Taylor $891,311
For a race Democrats have targeted, this sure is an imbalance. Taylor shows momentum; she outraised Wittman in the third quarter and has run an aggressive campaign, befitting a county prosecutor (she’s the commonwealth’s attorney in Henrico County). Wittman, though, has a lot of resources with which to defend himself. We must remember that these figures are only for what the candidates control; it doesn’t address expenditures by outside groups. However, those outside groups come and go as they see opportunities rise or fall across the country. We’re focused today on what money the candidates themselves control.
2nd District: Kiggans (R) and Luria (D) seem pretty evenly matched
Total raised: Luria $7,148,782, Kiggans $7,129,936
Raised this quarter: Luria $2,704,910, Kiggans $1,285,966
Total spending: Luria $5,629,532, Kiggans $5,335,749
Cash on hand: Kiggans $1,950,032, Luria $1,735,173
Luria has outraised Kiggans by more than 2-to-1 in the third quarter, which shows that Democrats are optimistic about Luria’s chances. However, in terms of spending and what’s still available to be spent, the two candidates are roughly even. Maybe that last dollar will make a difference — or maybe it won’t. We’ll see. (Of note: This was one of the few districts where the Federal Election Commission reports had information on spending for both candidates).
3rd District: Scott’s (D) biggest challenger isn’t in Virginia
Total raised: Scott $818,191, Rivera $14,781
Raised this quarter: Scott $158,282, Rivera $8,279
Cash on hand: Scott $138,996, Rivera $6,165
The 3rd District, represented by Democrat Bobby Scott, is not considered a competitive district, and the money shows it. The Republican candidate is Edwin Rivera Jr. The big question here is not whether Scott will win but whether he’ll return as chairman of the House Education and Workforce Committee if Democrats regain a majority. Rep. Jahana Hayes, D-Conn., has already launched a challenge, and Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore., is exploring one. Politico has framed this as one of several generational challenges Democrats might see in the next House. Scott is 79, and Politico says the challenges to wrest the gavel from him are “the latest example of the angst within the caucus about leadership opportunities.”
Politico also said that Scott doesn’t seek out the limelight and often delegates attention-grabbing parts of the committee’s work to other Democrats, particularly former teachers. Scott recently sent a letter to fellow Democrats to address his leadership style: “While I have no qualms about sharing the spotlight with my colleagues, I want to be clear that my colleagues should not confuse my humility with an inability to deliver results.” Normally, that kind of leadership would be considered wise, but here it might lead to challenges from Democrats who want a more vociferous chair.
4th District: McClellan (D) holds another noncompetitive seat
Total raised: McClellan $1,487,408, Murray $1,228
Raised this quarter: McClellan $432,463, Murray $1,228
Total spending: McClellan $1,345,437, Murray $27.23
Cash on hand: McClellan $206,332, Murray $1,201
Yes, you read that right. Republican Ed Murray has spent just $27.23. Democrat Jennifer McClellan is in no danger in this noncompetitive district. That’s enabled her to spend time this fall helping other Democratic candidates around Virginia. This weekend she’ll be with Perriello in Goochland County.
5th District: Perriello (D) holds a big financial advantage over McGuire (R)
Total raised: Perriello $3,428,084, McGuire $1,953,772
Raised this quarter: Perriello $1,332,372, McGuire $467,545
Cash on hand: Perriello $1,032,435, McGuire $478,973
I addressed the key parts of this earlier. For an incumbent facing a strong challenge, McGuire’s cash-on-hand figure is particularly anemic. Five incumbents with lightly funded challengers have more (of course, that’s also how those incumbents help make sure they only face lightly funded challengers).
The question I have is how well Perriello will be able to spend that money: We’re on track to have turnout on the same scale as last year’s governor race, which still means barely half of Virginians will vote (last year it was 54%). That’s a lot of people not voting. How well can Perriello use this money to target potential supporters and get them to the polls?
6th District: Macy (D) is an impressive fundraiser, but Cline (R) has more to spend down the stretch
Total raised: Macy $2,543,023, Cline $1,833,417
Raised this quarter: Macy $948,320, Cline $419,855
Cash on hand: Cline $703,836, Macy $525,139
For a Democratic candidate in a strongly Republican district, and one that even her national party hasn’t rushed to help, Macy has proven to be a prodigious fundraiser. She’s raised more money against the odds in a Republican district than McGuire next door, even though McGuire faces a strong challenge. Nonetheless, Cline has 34% more cash on hand heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Also of note: Early voting in Roanoke, the source of the most Democratic votes in the district, has been down, while early voting in Rockingham County, the source of the most Republican votes, is up. That’s very much a contrast to 5th District. I’ll have an update on these numbers next week to see if they’ve changed any.
7th District: Vindman (D) has more money than any other House candidate in Virginia
Total raised: Vindman $15,242,245, Ollivant $372,399
Raised this quarter: Vindman $3,185,514, Ollivant $126,788
Cash on hand: Vindman $5,827,746, Ollivant $116,560
This has been a competitive district in the past but doesn’t appear to be this year, certainly not on the campaign finance front. Rep. Eugene Vindman, D-Prince William County, is simply a money machine. Even without much of a race against Republican Doug Ollivant, Vindman has raised more money this quarter than candidates in close races.
8th District: Beyer (D) holds Virginia’s most Democratic district
Total raised: Beyer $2,434,858, Sabio $30,222
Raised this quarter: Beyer $348,338, Sabio $20,182
Cash on hand: Beyer $838,913, Sabio $16,577
Rep. Don Beyer, D-Alexandria, faced a spirited primary challenge, which he won handily. Now the finance numbers above show the imbalance against Republican Tony Sabio in the state’s most Democratic congressional district.
9th District: Griffith (R) holds Virginia’s most Republican district
Total raised: Griffith $2,138,007, Powers $240,265
Raised this quarter: Griffith $313,003, Powers $156,626
Cash on hand: Griffith $1,091,525, Powers $88,535
This really isn’t a competitive district, either, but Democrat Joy Powers is doing better here — at least in terms of fundraising — than some of the Republicans in noncompetitive Democratic districts. Still, Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, is so well-positioned that he’s felt confident enough to flat-out say he sees no reason to debate.
10th District: Subramanyam (D) holds another noncompetitive seat
Total raised: Subramanyam $1,553,212, Beckwith $228,531
Raised this quarter: Subramanyam $399,895, Beckwith $123,661
Cash on hand: Subramanyam $646,966, Beckwith $56,374
In previous elections, Republicans entertained hopes of winning the 10th District. Not this year, when Republicans are on defense. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Loudoun County, has far more money than Republican challenger David Beckwith.
11th District: Walkinshaw (D) also holds a noncompetitive seat
Total raised: Walkinshaw $3,154,644, Purves $25,702
Raised this quarter: Walkinshaw $428,897, Purves $20,065
Cash on hand: Wakinshshaw $1,106,292, Purves $17,018
Different district but same story as some others: Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Fairfax County, enjoys a strongly Democratic district, while Republican Arthur Purves is making what amounts to a token challenge.
A reminder: This Sunday is the first of two Sundays where registrar’s offices are open for early voting (Oct. 25 is the other). You can visit our Voter Guide to see who or what is on your ballot; we have separate pages for all 133 counties and cities in Virginia. We also sent an issues questionnaire to every candidate on the ballot; if they responded, their answers are on those pages.
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