Democrat Tom Perriello has nearly three times as much money in his campaign treasury as Republican incumbent John McGuire as the two candidates prepare for an expected fall clash in the Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District.
Next door in the 6th District, a longtime Republican stronghold, Democrat Beth Macy is outraising Republican Ben Cline and has more cash on hand, although by narrower margins.
The latest round of campaign finance reports, which became available Thursday, paint a curious picture of the upcoming congressional midterms in Virginia. In the two Republican-held districts that Democrats think they have the best chance of winning, the Republican incumbents (Rob Wittman in the 1st and Jen Kiggans in the 2nd) have outraised their likely Democratic opponents and have more cash on hand.
However, in two Republican-held districts where Democratic prospects are considered more uphill at best, the 5th and the 6th, Democratic candidates hold financial advantages over the Republican candidates.
This poses multiple questions. The first of these may be answered as the campaigns unfold: Will the fundraising prowess of Perriello and Macy cause national Democrats to rethink those races and provide more resources?
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has designated the 5th as a target race but has not done so with the 6th, likely because it’s the second-most Republican district in the state. Still, most Democratic chatter has focused on the 1st and the 2nd, which is understandable, given the voting histories of those districts. However, Perriello has raised more money for his 5th District race than Democrat Shannon Taylor has for hers in the 1st District, even though Perriello is running in a tougher district while the one Taylor is in is considered more flippable.
Macy may have a harder time drawing her national party’s backing for reasons discussed below. Nonetheless, it’s clear that she will be the best-funded challenger that any Republican in the 6th District has seen.
The big questions surrounding these races, though, can’t be answered until the votes are counted in November: How much will money matter when the fundamental political terrain of the 5th and 6th districts is so Republican?
For now, all we have to go on is money, so here’s an overview of the latest financial reports. I generally deal with two categories: the total amount raised (which shows fundraising prowess) and cash on hand (which I find a more practical measure because it shows what a candidate has left to spend. For all we know, a candidate may have squandered money up until now, but this is the financial ammunition they have left). In a few races, I also look at a third measure: fundraising in the most recent quarter. That helps show momentum, if there’s any to be found.
All these numbers reflect reports through the end of June, which were filed this week:
U.S. Senate: Warner holds an astronomical advantage over any Republican challenger
Total raised:
Mark Warner (D): $24,923,004
Bert Misusawa (R): $192,041
Kim Farington (R): $145,649
David Williams (R): $93,007
Cash on hand:
Warner: $16,154,713
Misusawa: $55,404
Williams: $31,146
Farington: $16,511
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner will be on the ballot for reelection this fall and three Republicans are seeking their party’s nomination in the Aug. 4 primary. None of the three are well-known and none of the three are well-funded, as statewide candidates go. As you’ll see below, there are many congressional candidates who aren’t even favorites in their districts who have more money than any of these statewide Republicans do. Retired Army officer Bert Misusawa is the best positioned financially but his advantage is not overwhelming. Prospective Republican voters who want to learn more about these candidates can see this story that Hugh Lessig wrote for Cardinal or go to our Voter Guide to see how they answered our issues questionnaire; just look up your locality.
Whoever wins, though, will be faced with the daunting task of going up against an incumbent who has 291.5 times as much money in the bank as the best-funded Republican — and that Republican will have to spend some of that to win the nomination while Warner doesn’t.
1st District: Wittman has 3.6 times as much money as Taylor
Total raised:
Rob Wittman (R): $4,016,189
Shannon Taylor (D): $2,054,506
Jason Knapp (D): $590,819
Salaam Bhatti (D): $184,834
Mel Tull (D): $179,991
Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs (D): $144,577
Tim Cywinski (D): $29,245
Ericka Kopp (D): $15,674
Cash on hand:
Wittman: $4,269,830
Taylor: $1,181,300
Knapp: $125,592
Tull: $46,995
Bhatti: $25,462
Beggs: $19,471
Cywinski: $8,187
Kopp: $6,669
Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor — who came close to winning the Democratic nomination for attorney general last year — is the frontrunner in a seven-candidate contest for the Democratic nomination in the 1st District. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already promoted Taylor, which has caused some controversy since the nomination isn’t settled yet.
The 1st trends Republican but Democrats think it’s within reach, particularly in what they hope will be a Democratic year. Wittman, though, has a big financial advantage, even over Democrats’ top candidate.
Taylor did outraise Wittman in the most recent quarter — $754,466 to $617,555 — but still has a long way to go to close the funding gap.
All seven Democratic candidates have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire; just look up any locality in the 1st District to see their answers.
2nd District: Kiggans, Luria evenly matched
Total raised:
Jen Kiggans (R): $5,843,429
Elaine Luria (D): $4,443,280
Nila Devanath (D): $230,406
Patrick Mosolf (D): $44,121
William Fleming (D): $0
Cash on hand:
Kiggans: $3,592,183
Luria: $3,565,595
Devanath: $65,685
Mosolf: $2,051
Fleming: $0
The 2nd District has long been a swing district, so it should be no surprise that Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans and the top Democratic candidate, former Rep. Elaine Luria, have about the same amount of money. First, though, Luria has an Aug. 4 primary. Only Mosolf has responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire.
3rd District: Scott dominates in a noncompetitive district
Total raised:
Bobby Scott (D): $415,325
Edwin Rivera (R): $6,502
Cash on hand:
Scott: $158,104
Rivera: $2,965
The 3rd District has never been a competitive district. It’s strongly Democratic (Scott won reelection two years ago with 69.95% of the vote) and these numbers reflect that. There are some independents who have filed fundraising reports, but the state Department of Elections hasn’t released a formal list yet of who has qualified for the November ballot.
4th District: McClellan didn’t get a Republican opponent until this week
Total raised:
Jennifer McClellan (D): $1,124,945
Cash on hand:
McClellan: $192,446
This is another noncompetitive district; McClellan won two years ago with 67.34%. Not until this week did Republicans find a candidate — Robert Murray, whom the party introduced Thursday, well after these finance reports were compiled. The Federal Election Commission shows two independent candidates but one has only $6.90 and the other shows no money whatsoever.
5th District: Perriello continues to hold big financial advantage over McGuire
The 5th Congressional District. Courtesy of Virginia Supreme Court.
Total raised:
Tom Perriello (D): $2,095,712
John McGuire (R): $1,746,971
Melanie Lucero (R): $82,872
Robert Tracinski (D): $44,131
Suzanne Krzyzankowski (D): $16,817
Raised this quarter:
Perriello: $693,680
McGuire: $264,559
Tracinski: $26,945
Lucero: $18,550
Krzyzankowski: $1,240
Cash on hand:
Perriello: $1,536,941
McGuire: $565,242
Tracinski: $39,640
Lucero: $9,267
Krzyzankowski: $6,337
The 5th District provides the most fascinating finance reports. This is the only congressional district that has both a Democratic and a Republican primary. Neither seems obviously competitive. On the Democratic side, Perriello is well-known and well-funded; his two rivals aren’t. On the Republican side, McGuire still has to deal with a party that was split two years during his successful primary challenge to Bob Good. Some of those wounds have yet to heal. McGuire, though, has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which usually carries heavy weight in a Republican contest. He also has far more money than his opponent, Melanie Lucero, who only recently has started to draw attention in that district.
Instead, let’s look ahead to the expected Perriello vs. McGuire campaign in the fall. By every objective measure, this is a Republican district. Even Winsome Earle-Sears, the weakest Republican candidate for governor since 1965, carried the 5th District last year. It’s not overwhelmingly Republican, though. Still, McGuire ought to have the advantage here. He might still have that advantage politically — we’ll see come November — but he doesn’t have it financially.
Perriello has raised more money overall. More tellingly (at least the way I view finance reports), he has 2.7 times as much cash on hand as the incumbent. The fundraising momentum (as measured by what was raised during the past quarter) is also on Perriello’s side.
Maybe the 5th is so Republican (McGuire won two years ago with 57.26% of the vote) that not even all that money will make a difference. However, midterms typically go against the president’s party, so this is likely a Democratic year to start with. Turnout in midterms is also on the low side. In the 2022 midterms during Joe Biden’s presidency, the statewide turnout was 49.28%, and in the 2014 midterms during Barack Obama’s second term, it was 41.60%. In the 2018 midterms during Trump’s first term, it was distinctly higher — 59.5%. What will the turnout this fall be? And, more importantly, who will be turning out in more enthusiastic numbers, Democrats or Republicans? History says Democrats.
The danger for McGuire — and the opportunity for Perriello — is that Republican turnout is off, while Democratic turnout is energized. The way things are shaping up right now, Perriello is going to have a lot more money to help gin up his side’s turnout while McGuire may not. Perriello is the second best-funded Democratic challenger in the state (Luria is No. 1), while McGuire has less cash on hand than any Republican incumbent in Virginia. This race seems worth keeping an eye on.
6th District: Macy has a financial advantage over Cline in state’s second-best Republican district
Total raised:
Beth Macy (D): $1,590,045
Ben Cline (R): $1,413,561
Raised this quarter:
Macy: $491,143
Cline: $388,164
Cash on hand:
Macy: $830,688
Cline: $769,638
Before we assess the numbers, we must understand the nature of this district. The 6th District is the state’s second-strongest Republican district — Ben Cline won reelection two years ago with 63.12% of the vote. Morgan Griffith in the 9th District was the only Republican to win with a higher percentage. The 6th has been in Republican hands since 1952, with only one exception (Democrat Jim Olin, from 1983-1993). The shape of that district has changed over time but the Shenandoah Valley, which now dominates the district population-wise, has been consistently Republican for generations.
And yet, despite all that, Democrat Beth Macy — the best-selling author of “Dopesick” and other books — has outraised Cline, both in total and for the quarter. She also has more money on hand. She has almost as much cash on hand as does longtime Democratic incumbent Don Beyer in the 8th District, and he has a primary to wage.
All this comes despite the fact that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not designated the 6th as a targeted race, and some key groups (such as EMILYs List) have not endorsed Macy, while they have backed Luria and Taylor. I have no inside information but that’s likely because they think this is such a Republican district that it’s not worth investing in. Will Macy’s money haul be able to sway those groups into taking more action? Likewise, is her financial advantage enough to win given how Republican this district is? That’s a question we won’t be able to answer until much later. However, we can, with certainty, put this race in context: Macy’s campaign seems to be the strongest Democratic challenge to a Republican incumbent in the 6th District since 1964, when Roanoke state legislator William Hopkins ran against Republican Bill Poff (and ultimately lost with 43% of the vote).
7th District: Vindman has more money than any other House candidate in the state
Total raised:
Eugene Vindman (D): $12,056,375
Douglas Ollivant (R): $245,611
Philip Harding (R): No data
Ricky Smithers (R): No data
Cash on hand:
Vindman: $6,661,973
Ollivant: $90,179
Harding: No data
Smithers: No data
Two years ago, the 7th District was the closest in the state — just 2.64 percentage points separated Eugene Vindman from the Republican candidate. Now it doesn’t seem competitive at all, at least financially. Democratic incumbent Vindman has $6.6 million in the bank, more than any other House candidate in the state. That’s almost as much as the two best-funded candidates in the 2nd District, Republican Kiggans and Democrat Luria, have together.
Two of the three Republican candidates don’t appear to have filed reports at all, according to the FEC. The best-funded Republican candidate, Tara Durant, dropped out to focus on defending her state Senate seat next year. She had $102,338 in the bank, still not a competitive amount against Vindman’s millions.
Financially, Republicans appear to have given up on this district; perhaps a case of realizing that in this year’s midterms they need to focus on defense, not offense.
The finance reports for this district do give some glimmer of what could have been. If redistricting had gone through, Vindman would have been in a newly configured 1st District while the 7th would have become an open seat, the so-called “lobster district” for its distinctive shape. There was a whole parade of Democrats lining up to run there, and the financial reports for their now-aborted campaigns wind up here. Former First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe was the top fundraiser; she had $698,187 in the bank, while Del. Dan Helmer had $573,202. They were the two best-financed contenders, all the others were further back. Of note: Those amounts are still less than what Perriello and Macy have in two Republican-held districts, another metric that makes their campaigns stand out. You can argue that she was running longer — before districts were redrawn. Nonetheless, once the lobster district got drawn, it was clear whoever won the Democratic nomination would win the election and candidates were quick out of the gate. Now they’re out to pasture, so to speak.
8th District: Beyer holds commanding money lead in state’s heaviest-voting district
Total raised:
Don Beyer (D): $2,086,519
Adam Dunigan (D): $247,639.
Mo Seifeldein (D): $156,987
Michael Duffin (D): $35,184
Tony Sabio (R) $10,040
Lorena Bruner (D): No data
Cash on hand:
Beyer: $864,385
Dunigan: $26,024
Seifeldein: $20,228
Sabio: $6,249
Duffin: $1,595
Bruner: No data
There is more voter interest in the Democratic primary in the 8th District than any other in the state. That’s based on early voting numbers; I’ll deal more with those in this week’s political newsletter, West of the Capital, which goes out Friday afternoon. Yes, despite the name, we sometimes deal with political topics elsewhere. If you’re not already signed up, you can go ahead and do that right now:
OK, back to the matters at hand: While we know that lots of people are voting in the 8th District Democratic primary, we don’t know who they’re voting for. All we can say for certain is that Beyer has far more money than anyone else. The question is whether, as a longtime incumbent, he’s vulnerable to a younger, more populist candidate. The financial reports say no, but money doesn’t vote.
Most of the candidates in this race have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire; you can find their answers on the Alexandria, Arlington County, Fairfax County and Falls Church pages. Whoever wins will be almost a shoo-in to win the seat in the fall; Beyer won two years ago with 71.52% of the vote.
9th District: Financially, the fight in the Fightin’ Ninth is on the Republican side
Total raised:
Morgan Griffith (R): $1,825,003
Joy Powers (D): $83,638
Adam Murphy (D): $32,750
Douglas Crockett (D): No data
Cash on hand:
Griffith: $1,038,125
Powers: $18,014
Murphy: $9,341
Crockett: No data
The 9th District is the most Republican district in the state; Morgan Griffith won two years ago with 72.49% of the vote. Despite that, three Democrats are competing for their party’s nomination; this is the biggest Democratic primary in that district since, well, ever. The Department of Elections database (which goes back to 1924) shows only one other Democratic primary for a 9th District nomination. Joy Powers has the financial advantage, but these numbers may be so small, and that district so geographically big, that maybe it doesn’t matter. We’ll see. But whoever prevails in the Aug. 4 primary will have a daunting task ahead of them, given the political lay of the land in the 9th and Griffith’s financial advantage.
All three Democrats have responded to our Voter Guide questionnaire; just look up any locality in the 9th District to find their responses. We also have this story by Andrew Kerley.
10th: Two Republicans separate themselves from the pack in bid to challenge Subramanyan
Total raised:
Suhas Subramanyan (D): $1,153,226
Sam Wong (R): $176,204
David Beckwith (R): $104,869
Anthony Suttles (R): $26,400
Julie Perry (R) $11,728
Cash on hand:
Subramanyan: $609,264
Beckwith: $62,296
Wong: $29,198
Perry: $728
Suttles: $0
Four Republicans are running for the right to challenge the Democratic incumbent, Suhas Subramanyan. Two of those — David Beckwith and Sam Wong — stand out in terms of fundraising. Looking ahead to the fall, Subramanyan has a big money advantage over whoever wins the primary. Two years ago, this was a relatively close district; Subramanyam won with 52.09% of the vote.
11th District: Walkinshaw, in a walk
Total raised:
James Walkinshaw (D): $2,279,096
Arthur Purves (R): $5,637
Cash on hand:
Walkinshaw: $796,235
Purves: $199
No primaries here, so these candidates advance straight to the general election. As you can see, the Democratic incumbent has a hefty financial advantage.
If you’ve waded through all these numbers, you’re entitled to some something fun. Here’s “It’s Money That Matters,” by Randy Newman, except the noted philosopher is only partially right: In politics, it always helps to have more money than the other side, but having more money is no guarantee of victory. Still, it’s a great song with some fancy guitar work by Mark Knopfler:
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