July is going to start hot.
That fits firmly into the “water is wet” level of self-evident statements — though having more of that wet water around would be welcome by many as most of Virginia continues in severe to extreme drought.
When the new U.S. Drought Monitor is issued on Thursday, there might be a slight erosion of that drought level in the southwest corner of the state and some of the western and northern fringes with a couple of rounds of recent storms. But the rain hasn’t been substantial enough over a wide area for any general relief over most of the state, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge.
All indications point to a heat wave beginning this weekend and continuing into next week, as a “heat dome” high pressure builds over the southeastern quarter of the U.S.
The heat wave has a strong probability of continuing into the Fourth of July weekend and perhaps beyond, with maybe a brief interruption or two.
Most days from this weekend to the Fourth of July will probably hit the 90s in the Roanoke Valley and everywhere east of the Blue Ridge, and some select spots at times even to the west.
Scraping 100 might be possible on a day or two for a spot or two somewhere in there. As of now, this doesn’t look likely to be the kind of heat wave where many locations in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia region go over 100 on multiple days, like the one we experienced toward the end of June and early July in 2012. (Something quite memorable starting with a “d” happened during that time, too.)
We can’t be sure of that yet. Drought exacerbates heat, and heat exacerbates drought.
We will probably see intermittent periods of scattered showers and storms during these hotter days, some of which might pour and blow hard on a few spots, but quite likely not bring widespread soaking rains.
While 90s are certainly not atypical for Virginia in late June and July, these temperatures are still considered “above normal.” Long-term averages between hotter and cooler seasons peak in the 80s for “normal” highs on any given day in the summer across most of Virginia.
It’s hard to call 90s in June, July or August “unseasonably” hot, as this is exactly the season to expect such temperatures, but for any given day, such temperatures are above the norms.
Summers have generally been getting warmer in our region, as they have in many parts of globe in the era of climate change, but specific to our region that has been more about warmer and stickier overnight lows than especially hot daytime highs.
For the most part, our region has missed out on many of the major heat waves that have affected states west of us over the past 14 years or so.
Didn’t we say here a few weeks ago that there were some reasons to think this summer might end up on the cool side, or at least, the not-blazing hot side?
El Niño is no longer a speculation
El Niño conditions are under way in the equatorial Pacific.
While it hasn’t yet met the criteria of duration for a full-fledged El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures are plenty warm enough across the entirety of the monitored region for the Climate Prediction Center to issue an El Niño advisory and declare that El Niño conditions exist.
It is all but inevitable now that El Niño will rule through the coming fall and winter.
We have previously discussed what that might mean, based on climate history, for our region’s weather moving forward — perhaps some much-needed wetter patterns toward the latter part of the year, though this is not a certainty.
Fewer Atlantic basin tropical systems are often an outcome of El Niño patterns, as more heat is focused on Pacific waters and higher-level winds aloft tend to stymie tropical development in the Atlantic.
While that could obviously be a boon for hurricane-threatened coastal areas and inland areas that could experience epic flooding as we recall all too well with Helene, it also could close the nozzle on a potential way to get a much-needed large-scale soaking rain.
Ironically, we have already experienced one episode of tropical cyclone-influenced rain, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that briefly formed off the Texas coast helped feed the storms and rain parts of our region experienced last Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front.
These rains were spotty, multiple inches in a few streaks west of I-77 and near the North Carolina border, very little for others. But it did show how tropical systems can sometimes be a positive influence during drought.
But we also took a look at how really no summers over the past several decades with an ongoing or developing El Niño have been exceptionally hot, on the whole, in our region. Some El Niño summers have been among the coolest on record; others have been near the middle of the pack.
For now, the cooler summer part isn’t showing much sign of coming about, with June having been generally warmer than normal and now heading into a hot period.
But it’s early, and the last two summers have had a tendency to peak with temperature in late June to mid-July and then drop into a cool August, including some unusually early fall-like mornings.
Just beyond the Fourth, there is some indication that the core of the hot high pressure centers more west of our region, which could put us in a northwest flow aloft.
That might bring cooler air down more often, but it might also help more storms to form as cold fronts press into the hot, humid air and sometime stall.
And that gets people thinking about what happened 14 years ago next week, that d-word thing.
We’ll put that thought on hold as an unlikely outcome, for now.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
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