Virginia is now headed toward something it’s never done before: a special election to amend the state constitution to temporarily set aside another constitutional amendment that two-thirds of voters approved barely five years ago.
The Virginia Supreme Court may yet throw out the results after the fact, but for now, let’s assume that the referendum on April 21 on whether Virginia should redraw the state’s congressional lines mid-decade to give Democrats an overwhelmingly partisan advantage in the state’s delegation will count. The specific goal: Democrats want new maps to knock four Republican House members out of office: Ben Cline, Jen Kiggans, John McGuire and Rob Wittman. Only Morgan Griffith would survive simply because it’s impossible to draw a Democratic seat in Southwest Virginia, where most localities are 70% or more Republican.
Who will win? If I knew that, I’d go to one of the casinos in Bristol or Danville and lay down a big wad of cash at the blackjack table.
We have not had much public polling on the issue, and both polls we’ve had came out before the proposed map was introduced. They also produced conflicting results: A Christopher Newport University poll said 51% supported redistricting, 43% opposed. A poll taken by the conservative group Energy Right about energy issues added a question about redistricting. It found 53% against, 29% in favor. At this point, public opinion beyond the partisans on each side is likely very squishy and unformed, so I’m not sure I’d put much stock in either result. We also need to remember that whatever the turnout for this referendum is, it will be much lower than in a general election, so the question of who votes is paramount.
With all that in mind, I’ll offer five reasons why the referendum will pass and five reasons why it won’t.
The reasons why the referendum will pass
1. This is about Trump, and most Virginians despise Trump
Without President Donald Trump, this wouldn’t be happening. He’s the one who set this redistricting in motion by urging Texas to redraw its lines to knock out five Democratic seats. California responded in kind from the Democratic side. Then other states followed suit, and here we are. All the pro-redistricting side in Virginia has to do is shout “Trump! Trump! Trump!” and that should be enough. He’s lost the state all three times he’s been on the ballot, and the most recent polls show his disapproval rate in Virginia at record highs — 62% in the most recent CNU poll. If this vote is about “send a message to Trump,” then the pro-redistricting should win easily.
2. Virginia is turning blue, and this is a partisan battle
Virginia probably isn’t as blue as it looked in November’s election, but we are in a state where we’ve elected (and reelected) two Democratic senators. Three of the past four governors, lieutenant governors and attorneys general have been Democrats. Democrats have won five straight presidential elections in the state. Our elections are often competitive, but Democrats start with an advantage, so if this is a straight-up Democratic vs. Republican fight, Democrats ought to win.
3. Republicans have a turnout problem
As the parties have realigned over the years, they’ve become geographically polarized. Democrats now have a base in the suburbs, Republicans in rural areas. Unfortunately for Republicans, rural areas tend to have lower voter turnout than the suburbs. In most of the urban crescent, voter turnout last fall exceeded the statewide average of 54.9%. In most of rural Virginia, it was lower.
Here’s how wide the gap was: In Democratic-voting Albemarle County, 66.2% of voters went to the polls. In Republican-voting Buchanan County, only 37.8% of the voters did.
This Republican turnout problem is most noticeable in Southwest Virginia.
When Republicans won in 2021 with Glenn Youngkin, they won with an unusually large turnout in rural Virginia, particularly Southwest Virginia. The Republican ticket last year could not replicate that for lots of reasons, and Republicans can’t replicate it this spring for one specific reason: The most Republican part of the state (Southwest Virginia) has nothing at stake. That part of Virginia has a Republican congressman now, and it would still have a Republican congressman under this plan — so what’s the motivation for Southwest Virginians to vote? They would have to be persuaded to vote at an unusual time of year for a principle — when last fall most of them didn’t even bother to vote for actual candidates.
4. The pro-redistricting side will be better funded
Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the U.S. House, said over the weekend that the party will spend “tens of millions” to get the referendum passed. The “yes” side has already launched a TV ad campaign, funded by $5 million from “dark money” donors. The “no” side is still getting organized and seems unlikely to match the “yes” side dollar-for-dollar. I always contend that money is overrated, but that’s in a general election. In a special election, turnout is especially important, and the “yes” side will likely have more money to drive that turnout.
5. The odd timing of the referendum benefits Democrats
Sometimes it’s hard enough to motivate people to vote at the normal time — for all the commotion last year, just 54.9% of Virginia voters showed up, and that was on the high side for a gubernatorial election. It’s even harder to motivate people to vote at an unusual time of year. Democrats are the ones who are most organized right now, so a low-turnout environment benefits them.
The reasons why the referendum will fail
1. Anger motivates voters, and Republicans are angry
Republicans now have something they lacked in November — motivation. Democrats are angry, too (at Trump), but Republicans are angry now, as well. That may not be enough to guarantee a “no” vote, but that does change the dynamic from what we saw last fall. Maybe those two sets of angry voters simply cancel each other out? Possible. However, here’s one advantage Republicans might have: They’re now angry about lots of things, and not just redistricting. They now have the whole Democratic agenda in the General Assembly to be upset about. Gun rights voters don’t like the new restrictions the General Assembly is passing, for instance. Defeating redistricting won’t change that, but Republicans now have a chance to harness their anger and put it to work in this referendum. Democrats want to send a message to Trump; some Republican constituencies may want to send a message of their own to Richmond.
2. Many voters don’t like gerrymandering, no matter who does it
That’s clearly what this is; Democrats haven’t tried to hide that. Just as the “yes” side might like to reduce this campaign to one word (“Trump”), the “no” side might like to reduce it to just the word “gerrymander.” That might motivate some independents who otherwise might sit this out. There are now two “no” groups organizing, one of them smartly billing itself as “No Gerrymander.”
3. The map is a liability for Democrats and an asset for Republicans
T.S. Eliot wrote: “Between the idea and the reality falls the shadow.” The idea of getting rid of four Republican House members may be appealing for Democrats, but the reality of the map that’s been proposed could dampen enthusiasm. Roanoke Valley Democrats who back author Beth Macy for the 6th District nomination now find her drawn into a district with former Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County, who has more money and a bigger geographic base (twice as many Democratic voters in Charlottesville-Albemarle as in the Roanoke Valley). How enthusiastic will they be about backing an amendment that probably sidelines their candidate?
Voters elsewhere may not like how their community is chopped up and paired with communities that are so dissimilar. Augusta County gets split three ways — with part combined with coal country and another with Northern Virginia. No other county may have such an extreme split. Prince William County is sliced five ways. Democratic partisans in those places may not care, but some independents may — and could be motivated to vote against the plan simply because they don’t want this crazy map. By releasing the map, Democrats created constituencies that now have a stake in voting this down.
4. The better Democrats do in the polls, the less they need redistricting
Midterms historically benefit the party out of power (in this case, Democrats), and all the trends (such as special elections) suggest this will be a Democratic year. Democrats are feeling so bullish they’ve now officially targeted three Republican-held districts in Virginia: Wittman in the 1st, Kiggans in the 2nd and, most recently, McGuire in the 5th. That raises a question: If Democrats think they can win three seats the old-fashioned way, do they really need to go through all this hassle just to win a fourth? Some may think so, but could some Democratic partisans lose their enthusiasm because this looks like such a good year already? That’s a long-shot argument, but it can’t be discounted around the margins.
5. The odd timing of the referendum benefits Republicans
What if the unusual election date winds up being a problem for the “yes” side and an asset for the “no” side? It’s possible to envision some key Democratic voter groups, such as young voters, simply zoning out and not showing up — helping to create a more Republican electorate. Also, remember what I said earlier about some Republican constituencies being angry at things the Democratic General Assembly is doing? If Republicans can channel the anger of some of those groups, those voters can have a disproportionate impact in a low turnout environment.
Early voting begins March 6. Election day is April 21. The Virginia Supreme Court won’t rule until sometime after that whether this is legal, so regardless of your position, the best thing to do is to vote and not count on the court.
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