Democrat Abigail Spanberger heads into the home stretch of the campaign with more than three times as much money to spend as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.
However, contributions have poured in to Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares after it was revealed that his opponent had sent text messages in which he fantasized about shooting a Republican colleague, while Democrat Jay Jones’ fundraising has taken a dive. Miyares now has almost 3.5 times more money than Jones for the final push.
Miyares is the lone Republican with a significant money advantage in a year that’s seen money flood into the coffers of Democratic candidates. The most recent round of campaign finance reports, which became available Tuesday, show Democratic House candidates having the most money in 10 of the 14 Republican-held districts the party has targeted — and the other four are close.
Before we get to the analysis, my customary advisory: Money matters, but not as much as what some people think it does. The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win. If the candidate spends wisely, the candidate with the most money can get his or her message out more effectively, and campaigns are ultimately about persuasion. We must also recognize that some money isn’t ideological, it’s practical. There are lots of donors, particularly in the business world, who will give money to a candidate they think will win because they want to be able to remind the winner of that. Likewise, if a candidate looks like a loser, many donors who might be sympathetic to their cause will hold back because they don’t want to waste their money on a losing cause.
With that, let’s jump in.
Governor: Spanberger continues to dominate
Total amount raised: Spanberger $53,572,135, Earle-Sears $25,920,951
Oct 1-23: Spanberger $11,733,697, Earle-Sears $9,499,070
Cash on hand: Spanberger $4,066,294, Earle-Sears $1,254,433
This is the same headline I gave during the last round of reports, and nothing has changed since then. These reports cover Oct. 1-23. Earle-Sears didn’t get blown out then, but she did last year and earlier this year. It hasn’t been until the fall that Earle-Sears’ fundraising has picked up, which is entirely too late in the process. You’ll see that over the course of the campaign, Spanberger has raised more than twice as much as Earle-Sears. If Earle-Sears winds up losing (as the polls suggest she will), there will be lots of questions asked about her campaign, one of which will be: Why the heck wasn’t she raising money earlier? If Spanberger loses, the question will be, how could you have that kind of financial advantage and still lose?
After the last round of reports, a reader asked where all this money is coming from. That’s both easy to answer and hard to answer. Easy to answer, because Virginia requires disclosure, and you can look up all the donors through the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan nonprofit set up specifically to track money in Virginia politics. Hard to answer, because it’s difficult to categorize many donations. It’s not as simple as finding a six-figure donation from the powerful pro-unicorn lobby that has long wanted to see the unicorn designated as the state’s official cryptid. Much of the money comes in through partisan sources, whose motives are clear but whose sources may not be. In the most recent period, Spanberger’s three biggest donations all came from the Democratic Governors Association, which obviously wants to see more Democratic governors. Likewise, Earle-Sears’ two biggest checks came from the Republican Governors Association, and the next two biggest came from Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s political action committee. Alas, the unicorn money seems to be sitting this one out.
More seriously, what we continue to see in the governor’s race is a persistent financial imbalance in favor of Spanberger.
Lieutenant governor: Reid now has the most money, although margin is slim
Total amount raised: Hashmi $6,429,155, Reid $1,266,105
Oct 1-23: Hashmi $1,850,174, Reid $454,094
Cash on hand: Reid $350,955, Hashmi $335,032
Wait, what? We’ve been writing the whole campaign about how John Reid, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, had almost no money. In political terms, he doesn’t, but he’s saved a higher percentage of it for the end than anyone else.
What does this mean? I’m not sure. Normally, I like the “cash on hand” figure because that shows a candidate’s potential spending power. Maybe they squandered their previous money on high-priced consultants who did them no good earlier, but they still have the potential to spend this much wisely. However, we’re so close to the end now that it’s possible, even likely, that candidates have already paid for TV time and social media ads that haven’t aired or direct mail pieces that haven’t been sent out yet. That’s why Democrats shouldn’t panic here. This doesn’t mean that Hashmi will be outspent at the end of the campaign. However, Republicans might be encouraged that Reid has hoarded his slim treasury for a valiant final push. This comes as some polls — which I dealt with in a column Tuesday — show this race tightening to within the margin of error.
Also of note: Discount the top line, for “total amount raised,” with both Hashmi and Jones, in the attorney general’s race. Both candidates had to raise and spend money to win primaries for their respective nominations, so the figures there are true, but somewhat misleading.
Attorney general: Jones’ fundraising falls off while Miyares’ picks up
Total amount raised: Miyares $24,196,954, Jones $14,303,280
Oct 1-23: Miyares $8,603,986, Jones $1,923,749
Cash on hand: Miyares $2,450,710, Jones $685,279
Now we come to what has become, in many ways, the main event, as Jones’ text messages have taken center stage.
Let’s review: Through July and August, Jones slightly outraised Miyares. In September, Miyares slightly outraised Jones. Big picture: From the time Jones won the primary until early October, these two candidates were evenly matched in their fundraising ability. Then October happened. Whether this is a consequence of the text messages or Republicans thinking that Miyares might be the only Republican who might win, we don’t know, but from Oct. 1 to 23, Miyares raised almost 4.5 times as much money as Jones and now has 3.5 times as much money left to spend.
This has happened for two reasons: Miyares’ fundraising has cranked up while Jones’ has slacked off.
Let’s compare the fundraising by period; for this chart, I’ll keep the Democrat on the left and the Republican on the right so it’s easier to eyeball:
July-August: Jones $4,045,714; Miyares $3,762,903
September: Jones $3,300,615 Miyares $3,519,476
Oct. 1-23: Jones $1,923,749 Miyares $8,603,986
The other candidates have all been pretty consistent from one fundraising period to another. It’s only in the attorney general’s race that we’re seeing big swings. Something reduced Jones’ fundraising. Something increased Miyares’. If it wasn’t the text messages, then I don’t know what it was. For the first three weeks and two days of October, Miyares has been raising money at almost the same rate as his party’s gubernatorial candidate, while Jones’ fundraising hasn’t been much better than a top-rate House of Delegates campaign (in fact, one House candidate outraised him during the period).
The polling we looked at Tuesday showed Jones’ support had dropped with older, college-educated independents; that’s where Miyares probably needs to spend a lot of his money in the final days, wherever those voters are.
House of Delegates: Democrats have cash advantage in 10 of 14 targeted districts (and maybe all 14, depending on how you want to count)
Democrats hold a 51-49 edge in the House; the Senate isn’t up for election this year. Democrats, playing offense, have set their sights on 14 seats now held by Republicans. In 10 of those districts, the Democratic candidate has the most cash, sometimes a lot more:
HD 22 (Prince William): Elizabeth Guzman $159,039, Ian Lovejoy $151,559
HD 34 (Harrisonburg, Rockingham): Andrew Payton $81,537, Tony Wilt $77,205
HD 41 (Montgomery, Roanoke County): Lily Franklin $220,184, Chris Obenshain $126,023
HD 64 (Stafford): Stacey Carroll $168,264, Paul Milde $37,604
HD 66 (Caroline): Nicole Cole $257,461, Bobby Orrock $178,709
HD 69 (Yorktown area): Mark Downey $195,844, Chad Green $98,731
HD 73 (Chesterfield): Leslie Mehta $161,739, Mark Earley Jr. $139,764
HD 82 (Petersburg area): Kimberly Pope Adams $319,437, Kim Taylor $97,873
HD 86 (Hampton, Poquoson area): Virgil Thornton $170,943, A.C.Cordoza $46,917
HD 89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): Karen Carnegie $156,031, Mike Lamonea $$86,025
In four of the 14 targeted districts, Republicans have the most money:
HD 30 (Loudoun, Fauquier): Geary Higgins $263,691, John McAuliff $80,449
HD 57 (Henrico, Goochland): David Owen $$227,781, May Nivar $65,335
HD 71 (Williamsburg area): Amanda Batten $265,778, Jessica Anderson $238,266
HD 75 (Chesterfield, Hopewell): Carrie Coyner $276,292, Lindsey Dougherty $257,095
However, these reports don’t paint a full picture, because these Democrats raised huge amounts in the period and spent them. For instance, in House District 30 in Northern Virginia, McAuliff raised more than $2 million during the first part of October, while Higgins raised $347,904. In fact, all four of these Democrats outraised their Republican opponents during the period, often by substantial amounts. For that reason, I would not advise looking at these numbers and thinking that McAuliff and Nivar are impoverished.
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